Mabux: Global Bunker Prices

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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
760.50
-15.00
713.00
+3.00
Jul 21
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	760.50	-15.00	713.00	+3.00	Jul 21

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
466.39	+1.18	554.58	-0.60	790.79	-1.29	Jul 24

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	438	444	-6	501	498	+3	713	705	+8	Jul 24
Singapore	415	455	-40	514	541	-27	682	738	-56	Jul 24
Fujairah	398	489	-91	507	544	-37	737	891	-154	Jul 24
Houston	437	457	-20	500	576	-76	715	765	-50	Jul 24

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Analytical Section
- Daily and Weekly Bunker analyses and Future Curves
- World and regional Bunker indices
- Bunker Price Forecast for 40+ ports
- Digital Bunker Prices
MABUX for Industry
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Latest News
- 2025-07-24
  MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 30, 2025.
  At the close of Week 30, the global bunker indices tracked by MABUX displayed mixed dynamics. The 380 HSFO index edged down by 1.04 USD, dropping from 466.85 USD/MT to 465.81 USD/MT, and remained well below the 500.00 USD threshold. The VLSFO index also... Read more At the close of Week 30, the global bunker indices tracked by MABUX displayed mixed dynamics. The 380 HSFO index edged down by 1.04 USD, dropping from 466.85 USD/MT to 465.81 USD/MT, and remained well below the 500.00 USD threshold. The VLSFO index also saw a decline, falling by 2.87 USD from 558.38 USD/MT to 555.51 USD/MT. In contrast, the MGO index rose by 4.71 USD, climbing from 787.68 USD/MT to 792.39 USD/MT—moving closer to the 800.00 USD level. As of this writing, the global bunker market was experiencing uneven fluctuations across indices, with no distinct trend emerging.
  
  The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued its moderate decline, falling by $1.83 to $89.70 from $91.53 last week. The spread remains consistently below the psychological threshold of $100.00, also known as the SS Breakeven point. The weekly average of the global SS index mirrored this decrease, also down by $1.83. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread slipped by $1.00, from $68.00 to $67.00, while the port’s weekly average saw a more pronounced drop of $8.83. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread fell by $4.00—from $103.00 to $99.00—dipping below the key $100.00 level. The weekly average in Singapore also edged down by $1.17. These modest declines in SS Spread values appear to be temporary but are expected to continue into next week, suggesting the emergence of a more sustainable trend. Nevertheless, with SS values remaining under $100.00, the use of conventional VLSFO continues to be more economically viable than the HSFO + Scrubber option. For further details, please refer to the Differentials section on mabux.com.
  
  According to the latest data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), natural gas production in 58 countries declined by 4.8 billion cubic meters (bcm) in May 2025 compared to April. The decrease was primarily driven by lower output in Russia (-3.2 bcm), the United States (-1.6 bcm), and Norway (-1.3 bcm). However, compared to May 2024, global gas production rose by 0.7 bcm, supported by increased output in China, Qatar, Nigeria, and a modest year-on-year gain in the United States. Natural gas demand in JODI-reporting countries dropped by 12 bcm month-on-month and by 2.7 bcm year-on-year in May. This decline was attributed to relatively mild spring temperatures following the winter season. Notably, consumption fell in the US, South Korea, Japan, Turkey, and the UK. Within the EU and the UK, demand fell by 2.1 bcm compared to April, but increased by 2.8 bcm relative to May 2024.
  
  As of July 22, European regional gas storage facilities were filled to 65.42%, reflecting an increase of 2.18 percentage points compared to the previous week. However, this level remains 5.91 percentage points lower than at the start of the year, when storage stood at 71.33%. The European Union continues its efforts to replenish gas reserves across the region.
  By the end of Week 30, the European gas benchmark TTF recorded a decline of 1.334 euros/MWh, falling to 33.111 euros/MWh from 34.445 euros/MWh the previous week.
  
  The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) declined by another USD 6 over the past week, reaching USD 809/MT, down from USD 815/MT the previous week. Notably, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel shifted in favor of LNG for the first time since July 29, 2024. As of July 21, the price gap stood at USD 3 in favor of LNG, compared to USD 7 in favor of conventional fuel the week prior. On the same day, MGO LS was quoted at USD 812/MT in the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section on mabux.com.
  
  At the end of Week 30, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP)—revealed the following weekly trends in the world's major bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • 380 HSFO segment: All ports remained in the undervalued zone. MDI values in Rotterdam were unchanged from the previous week, while Singapore and Fujairah saw slight increases of 6 and 5 points, respectively. Houston, however, experienced a noticeable drop of 11 points..
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam continued to be the only overvalued port, though its MDI index decreased by 8 points and moved very close to the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP. In contrast, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston stayed in the undervalued zone. The level of undervaluation increased in Singapore and Fujairah by 5 and 2 points respectively, while Houston’s MDI declined by 4 points.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam shifted into the overvalued zone, making it the only overvalued port in this category, with a 3-point increase in its MDI. Meanwhile, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston continued to be undervalued. Their MDI levels dropped by 10, 13, and 3 points, respectively, with Fujairah’s MDI remaining steadily above the $100.00 mark.
  
  Overall, during the week, Rotterdam entered the overvalued category in both the VLSFO and MGO LS segments. Despite this movement, the broader global market remains dominated by a trend of undervaluation in bunker fuel prices. Based on current patterns, it is expected that the present MDI dynamics will likely continue into the next week.
  
  More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX digital benchmark can be found in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on the website mabux.com.
  
  Climate NGO Transport & Environment (T&E) has urged the European Union to bring forward its deadline for mandatory shore power supply (SPS) installations in major European ports from 2030 to 2028. According to T&E, only 20% of the required infrastructure has been installed or commissioned to date, highlighting a significant shortfall in progress. T&E warns that most European ports are failing to act against toxic air pollution. Only four of the EU’s 30 largest ports have invested in shore power infrastructure at even half the required level. Meanwhile, fossil fuel-powered ships continue to account for over 6% of CO₂ emissions in EU ports. The report singles out Antwerp, Dublin, Gdansk, and Lisbon as ports that have yet to launch any SPS projects. While ports like Rotterdam, Barcelona, Valencia, Bremerhaven, and Le Havre have taken steps by installing or contracting SPS systems, their pace of implementation remains insufficient to meet EU targets. Strikingly, half of the currently deployed SPS capacity is concentrated in just four ports: Algeciras, Livorno, Swinoujscie, and Valletta. In addition to urging a tighter deadline, T&E is calling on the EU to increase funding for port electrification and extend SPS regulations to cover all fossil fuel-powered ships—not just the largest passenger and container vessels.
  
  The global bunker market continues to shape a sustainable trend. We anticipate that moderate and mixed movements will dominate the dynamics of bunker indices in the coming week.
  Source: MABUX
- 2025-07-24
  Oil prices rise on US trade optimism, drop in crude inventories
  Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by optimism over U.S. trade negotiations that would ease pressure on the global economy and a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories. Brent crude futures gained 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.72 a barrel... Read more Oil prices rose on Thursday, buoyed by optimism over U.S. trade negotiations that would ease pressure on the global economy and a sharper-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories.
  Brent crude futures gained 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $68.72 a barrel by 0335 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $65.47 per barrel.
  Both benchmarks were little changed on Wednesday as markets monitored developments in U.S.-European Union trade talks, following President Donald Trump’s tariff deal with Japan. The agreement lowers duties on auto imports and spares Tokyo from new levies in exchange for a $550 billion package of U.S.-bound investment and loans.
  "Buying was driven by optimism that progress in tariff negotiations with the U.S. would help avoid a worst-case scenario," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan (OTC:NSANY) Securities Investment, a unit of Nissan Securities.
  "Still, uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks and peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is limiting further gains," he added, predicting WTI will likely remain range-bound between $60 and $70.
  Two European diplomats said on Wednesday that the EU and the U.S. are moving toward a trade deal that could include a 15% U.S. baseline tariff on EU goods and possible exemptions, potentially paving the way for another major trade agreement following the Japan deal.
  On the supply side, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed U.S. crude inventories fell last week by 3.2 million barrels to 419 million barrels, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6 million-barrel draw.
  
  Gasoline stocks also fell by 1.7 million barrels to 231.1 million barrels, nearly double expectations for a 908,000-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, rose by 2.9 million barrels in the week to 109.9 million barrels - still near their lowest seasonal level since 1996, ANZ analysts said in a note.
  "This suggests demand over the northern hemisphere summer has been relatively strong," ANZ said.
  Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained in focus.
  Russia and Ukraine held peace talks in Istanbul on Wednesday, discussing further prisoner swaps, though the two sides remain far apart on ceasefire terms and a possible meeting of their leaders.
  
  Separately, foreign oil tankers were temporarily barred from loading at Russia’s main Black Sea ports due to new regulations, two industry sources said on Wednesday, effectively halting exports from Kazakhstan through a consortium partly owned by U.S. energy majors.
  The U.S. energy secretary said on Tuesday that the U.S. would consider sanctioning Russian oil to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the EU on Friday agreed its 18th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the price cap for Russian crude. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2025-07-24
  Trade Tensions Cloud Oil Outlook Despite Global Supply Headwinds
  Oil prices fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, with lingering uncertainty over looming tariffs by the Trump administration continuing to dampen sentiment ahead of the August 1 deadline, which a Mizuho analyst described for Seeking Alpha as... Read more Oil prices fell for a fourth straight session on Wednesday, with lingering uncertainty over looming tariffs by the Trump administration continuing to dampen sentiment ahead of the August 1 deadline, which a Mizuho analyst described for Seeking Alpha as “a possible demand destruction event”.
  
  The European Union is reportedly exploring potential counter-measures against the U.S. as the deadline approaches, and on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump set a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japan’s exports to the U.S. Japan cut auto duties, while opening Japan’s markets to the U.S.
  
  Brent crude for September delivery was quoted at $68.66 per barrel as of Wednesday at 2:55 p.m. ET, with the last six daily settlements falling in a narrow range of $68.52-69.52/bbl, an indication of a lack of conviction amongst traders.
  
  Interestingly, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that market sentiment for the leading crude grades is highly divergent.
  
  To wit, StanCharts crude oil money-manager positioning index for the main WTI contract clocked in at -75.7, indicating a high degree of bearishness while the same metric for the main Brent contract shows modest bullishness at +29.3. Over the past two weeks alone, money managers have cut net longs in WTI by 82.9 million barrels (mb) but increased bullish bets on Brent by 72.3 mb. This marks the third consecutive week that the Brent and WTI positioning indices have diverged.
  
  StanChart notes that U.S.-based traders appear to be more bearish than their European, Asian or Middle Eastern peers, following general asset markets and concentrating heavily on tariff deals and FOMC news flow. Non-U.S. traders, on the other hand, appear to be paying more attention to oil market fundamentals. However, StanChart says the path of least resistance for oil prices from here is higher, driven by three key catalysts.
  
  First off, non-OPEC+ supply is under-performing with U.S. supply likely to fall. Indeed, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has projected that U.S. production will decline in 2026, the first contraction since 2021 due to lower oil prices and reduced drilling activity. According to the latest Baker-Hughes drilling survey, U.S. oil rig count fell for the 12th consecutive week to a 45-month low of 422 rigs.
  
  The largest w/w fall was in the Texas portion of the Delaware Basin where activity fell by five rigs to 61 rigs, with the rig count in Reeves County falling by five to 23. EIA has forecast U.S. oil output will drop to 13.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from an expected 13.42 million bpd in 2025. The energy watchdog has cited inventory growth as the primary reason for lower oil prices, with global inventories expected to grow by 800,000 barrels in 2025 and 600,000 barrels in 2026.
  
  Second, StanChart has pointed out that short- and long-term oil demand are proving to be more robust than the consensus. Finally, OPEC+ policy is becoming increasingly proactive, with the background of a sustained campaign by key members to increase the effectiveness of the organization.
  
  Meanwhile, Europe’s gas inventories have continued climbing. Europe’s LNG imports have continued above seasonal averages, helping refill inventories ahead of winter. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data, inventories stood at 75.60 billion cubic metres (bcm) on 20 July; good for a 2.46 bcm increase over the previous week and 31% above the five-year average. The deficit has now narrowed on each of the past 11 days and currently stands at a five-month low of 20.39 bcm. This trend points to an end-injection season level of close to 100 bcm, or close to 90% of storage capacity.
  
  The rapid inventory build has kept the pressure on European gas prices: Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas for August delivery fell by EUR 2.30 per megawatt hour (MWh) w/w (6.5%) to EUR 32.90/MWh, bringing prices closer to the year-to-date settlement low of EUR 31.86/MWh and the 52-week settlement low of EUR 31.62/MWh).
  
  However, StanChart says an upside tail risk remains in the form of potential U.S. secondary sanctions against consumers of Russian oil and gas. Further, Europe’s LNG demand is outpacing Asian demand, where it has been weaker-than-expected. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-24
  Kazakhstan to Triple Fuel Exports by 2040 in $20 Billion Refining Push
  Kazakhstan has unveiled an ambitious new energy strategy that will triple its petroleum product exports by 2040, with refined fuel volumes set to hit 39 million tons per year, up from 17 million now, with export share rising to 30% of total output. The... Read more Kazakhstan has unveiled an ambitious new energy strategy that will triple its petroleum product exports by 2040, with refined fuel volumes set to hit 39 million tons per year, up from 17 million now, with export share rising to 30% of total output. The sweeping 2025-2040 plan marks a sharp departure from previous government policy, which capped fuel exports at just 10% under a 2024 draft framework.
  
  The revised strategy, approved this week by the cabinet, emphasizes downstream development as a top priority, particularly with respect to expanding refining capacity, launching a $5 billion petrochemical buildout, and targeting new export markets in China, India, and neighboring countries. The government also confirmed six ongoing projects in the oil and gas chemical sector totaling an additional $15 billion in investment, according to the Times of Central Asia.
  
  The new strategy prioritizes boosting exports to growing demand centers in China, India, and neighboring Central Asian countries. The plan includes expanding existing refining infrastructure and constructing a new petrochemical complex, with the goal of raising refining depth to 94% and enabling full domestic coverage amid projected annual fuel demand growth of 1.5-2%, driven by urbanization and industrialization.
  
  The Times of Central Asia notes that Kazakhstan will invest up to $5 billion in its oil and gas chemical sector, focusing on polymers, fertilizers, and other high-value products. These efforts complement the government’s broader downstream development vision, which includes six major projects already underway and a parallel investment pipeline totaling $15 billion.
  
  The Energy Ministry emphasized that with 30 billion barrels of proven reserves, Kazakhstan intends to become a strategic refining center in Eurasia. Implementation of the plan will begin in 2025 with pilot refinery digitization initiatives, according to ICE. The government sees this as a key step toward insulating its economy from global commodity price volatility while attracting long-term foreign investment. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-24
  BP Is Back to Focusing on Oil and Gas
  BP announced in February that it was doing a U-turn on plans to broaden its portfolio to include a range of renewable energy projects, and to instead focus on its primary oil and gas business. This was unexpected, as many oil majors have invested heavily... Read more BP announced in February that it was doing a U-turn on plans to broaden its portfolio to include a range of renewable energy projects, and to instead focus on its primary oil and gas business. This was unexpected, as many oil majors have invested heavily in diversifying their energy mix in recent years, with rising pressure to decarbonise to support a global green transition. Five months on, BP has appointed a new chair to oversee the shift back to fossil fuels.
  
  BP’s CEO, Murray Auchincloss, announced plans for a “fundamental reset” in February, which involved scrapping a target to increase renewable generation 20-fold by 2030, from 2019 levels, and instead redirecting the company’s focus to fossil fuels. BP had around 8.2 GW of renewable generation capacity at this point. Auchincloss also announced plans to divest assets and cut other low-carbon investments to reduce debt and boost returns. This formed part of a strategy shift announced by the company due to investor concerns over earnings. BP’s shares have long been underperforming, compared to those of several of its competitors, which led it to discard its target to reduce oil and gas output by the end of the decade.
  
  The rise in global oil and gas prices in the post-pandemic era boosted profits for several oil majors. Meanwhile, BP has lagged behind following its shift to focus on renewables. Shareholders put huge pressure on the company’s former CEO, Bernard Looney, to make the business more profitable, until he was eventually replaced by Auchincloss in September 2023.
  
  In March, Auchincloss defended BP’s shift back to fossil fuels, suggesting that the move was made largely to appease investors. “From the many conversations I have been having, our new direction is resonating with shareholders… Most of the questions to me are about how quickly we can deliver,” Auchincloss wrote in an article in The Times.
  
  BP now intends to increase its oil and gas production to between 2.3 million and 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030, as well as increase spending by around 20 percent, to $10 billion a year. Previously, the British firm had planned to reduce output by around a quarter from 2019 levels, to 2 million bpd. “Our optimism in 2020 for a fast energy transition was misplaced and we went too far, too fast in our plans,” Auchincloss wrote.
  
  Just a few months after the announcement, in July, BP said it had appointed a new chair to oversee its transition back to fossil fuels. Albert Manifold, the former head of the building material company CRH, will replace Helge Lund as chair of the oil major in October. Lund had long supported BP’s green transition and announced he would be stepping down in April. Amanda Blanc, the senior independent director at BP, said Manifold had “transformed and refocused CRH into a global leader” and commended “his impressive track record of shareholder value creation”.
  
  Meanwhile, Manifold said it was “an honour to be appointed chair of one of the world’s great energy companies, and to have the opportunity to help the company reach its full potential.” BP also hired Simon Henry, a former Shell executive, on its board, as well as oil and gas veteran Dave Hager, signalling a significant shake-up.
  
  In mid-July, BP agreed to sell its onshore wind business in the U.S. to the New York-based LS Power. This includes the sale of its share in 10 windfarms, which produce enough energy to power over 500,000 homes. The agreement’s terms were not disclosed, but the combined value of the windfarms, nine of which are operated by BP, is thought to be under $2 billion. The decision came as part of the company’s plan to offload $20 billion in assets. Auchincloss aims to complete between $3 billion and $4 billion of divestments in 2025, having already agreed deals with a total value of $1.5 billion.
  
  BP claimed, "we are no longer the best owners” for advancing its U.S. wind business. It also likely comes in response to a crackdown on wind energy under President Donald Trump’s administration. William Lin, the head of BP’s gas and low-carbon energy business, said, “We have been clear that while low-carbon energy has a role to play in a simpler, more focused BP, we will continue to rationalise and optimise our portfolio to generate value. The onshore US wind business has great assets and fantastic people, but we have concluded we are no longer the best owners to take it forward.”
  
  British oil major BP has rapidly backtracked on its progress towards developing a more diversified energy portfolio, including renewable energy projects. The firm now plans to pursue higher oil and gas output to increase its profit margins. It is not the only oil major to have stalled in terms of green progress, as many fossil fuel companies have increased their output as oil and gas prices have risen in recent years.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-24
  MABUX: Global bunker market to show slow sideways motion on Jul.24.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – posted a decline on Jul.23: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 465.21 (-3.03) VLSFO - USD/MT – 555.18 (-3.01) MGO - USD/MT – 792.08 (-5.67) As of Jul.23,... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – posted a decline on Jul.23:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 465.21 (-3.03)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 555.18 (-3.01)
  MGO - USD/MT – 792.08 (-5.67)
  
  As of Jul.23, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which tracks the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)— recorded the following trends across key global ports—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undercharge zone. Rotterdam and Houston saw their discounts narrow by 2 and 6 USD respectively, while Singapore and Fujairah experienced a slight widening of 1 USD each. Rotterdam’s MDI remained close to a full 100 percent correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam continued to be the only overpriced port, with its premium increasing by $1. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undercharged. The MDI was unchanged in Singapore, decreased by 2 USD in Fujairah, and fell by 12 USD in Houston.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam re-entered the overcharge zone and became the only overpriced port in this category, with a premium increase of 9 USD. The remaining ports—Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston—stayed undercharged. Underpricing declined by 6 USD in Singapore, 11 USD in Fujairah, and 7 USD in Houston. Rotterdam remained near full correlation between MBP and DBP, while Fujairah’s index continued to exceed the 100 USD threshold.
  
  We do not expect any steady trend on Jul.24. Global bunker market to show slow sideways motion: 380 HSFO – plus-minus 0-2 USD/MT, VLSFO – plus-minus 0-2 USD/MT, MGO LS – plus-minus 0-4 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2025-07-24
  Navigating the World's Most Critical Oil Chokepoints
  The total volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz stands around a staggering $600 billion. While a blockade of the strait is considered a distant possibility, its closure could ripple across global supply chain networks. In particular, Japan,... Read more The total volume of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz stands around a staggering $600 billion.
  
  While a blockade of the strait is considered a distant possibility, its closure could ripple across global supply chain networks. In particular, Japan, China, and India would be impacted the most. Furthermore, a shock to oil prices would likely affecting production costs, in turn raising the price of consumer goods.
  
  This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the most vital oil transit chokepoints, based on data from MUFG.
  
  The Strait of Hormuz and Oil Trade Flows
  
  Below, we show how the Strait of Hormuz sees the second-highest volume of oil passing through its corridor globally:
  
  In 2023, 20.9 million barrels of oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran and Oman.
  
  Iran largely controls this waterway, where 20% of global oil consumption is transported across this shipping route. In response to Israel-Iran conflicts, oil production surged by 950,000 barrels per day in June—largely driven by Saudi Arabian output.
  
  While tensions have recently flared between Israel and Syria, it remains to be seen if conflict will resurface with Iran. Earlier in July, Israeli officials met with Trump to discuss certain scenarios that would justify a future attack on Iran—including the resumption of nuclear enrichment activities.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-24
  Crude, Gasoline Draw Props up Oil Prices
  U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.169 million barrels in the week ending July 18, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday, broadly confirming the earlier API estimate but with a steeper decline. Analysts had expected a more... Read more U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.169 million barrels in the week ending July 18, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday, broadly confirming the earlier API estimate but with a steeper decline. Analysts had expected a more modest draw, reinforcing signs of strong refining activity and steady demand amid peak summer travel.
  
  Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 455,000 barrels, signaling a slight increase in storage at the critical NYMEX WTI settlement point.
  
  Gasoline stocks also fell by 1.738 million barrels, reflecting drawdowns in some regions but not all. As OPIS’s Tom Kloza noted on X, "Interesting gasoline data from EIA. Demand trailing same week last year by about 490,000 b/d. Bifurcated inventories – East Coast saw a solid decrease of 3.3m bbl of gasoline; West Coast saw gasoline stocks climb by 1.1-million barrels." While national inventories remain near the five-year average, the regional divergence underscores a mixed demand picture. Gasbuddy's Patrick de Haan on X noted that this week likely represents the peak week for US gasoline consumption for the entire year, estimating demand to be between 9.1-9.3mbpd.
  
  Distillate inventories surged by 2.931 million barrels—contrary to seasonal expectations. This moderate build suggests a front-loaded boost in U.S. refining activity to rebuild low stocks. According to EIA data, as of the previous week, distillate inventories were sitting 21% below the five-year average.
  
  Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) saw another rare decline, falling by 200,000 barrels to 402.5 million barrels. The draw was linked to a loan to ExxonMobil to resolve quality issues tied to Mars-grade crude at the company’s Baton Rouge facility. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-24
  EU Leaders Head to Beijing Amid Mounting Tensions
  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will meet with the Chinese president and prime minister in Beijing on July 24 in what is expected to be a tense EU-China summit with the war in Ukraine and... Read more European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will meet with the Chinese president and prime minister in Beijing on July 24 in what is expected to be a tense EU-China summit with the war in Ukraine and a potential transatlantic trade war looming large in the background.
  
  Brussels will raise the usual concerns about human rights in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong with Beijing expected to quickly bat away any form of criticism.
  
  Instead, the most heated discussions will likely center around China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and what the EU views as unfair Chinese trade practices, which have led to a ballooning deficit in Sino-European trade in favor of Beijing.
  
  Briefing the media before the summit, European Union officials underlined that the EU presidents are expected to be “direct, open and constructive” but are also “ready to defend our interest.”
  
  50 Years Of Diplomatic Ties
  
  The summit was meant to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations between China and the bloc, but don’t expect too many niceties or concrete deliverables of any kind.
  
  Given that both sides are keen to showcase their green credentials, there were hopes in the EU that they would at least agree on a common declaration on the climate, but it is very uncertain if even this will materialize.
  
  This stands in sharp contrast to the EU-Japan summit held the day before in Tokyo, where a 24-page declaration covering a broad policy agenda was expected, including progress on bilateral security ties and a rare earths deal.
  
  The key meeting to look out for in Beijing is the morning session, when von der Leyen and Costa will have a “geo-strategic” discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
  
  Have The Gloves Come Off Regarding Ukraine?
  
  Ukraine will take up a big part of the meeting, which comes just a few weeks after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told European diplomats in Brussels that his country could not accept a Russian defeat in the war.
  
  Brussels has long sought not to antagonize China too much on the issue, but the gloves appear to have come off, at least to a certain extent.
  
  EU officials now say openly that 80 percent of dual-use items used by Russia in its war effort originate from China. Brussels has also criticized Beijing’s continued export of components like drone engines to Moscow.
  
  China has also been targeted -- both directly and indirectly -- in the latest EU sanctions package on Russia agreed last week.
  
  Several Chinese companies and a handful of financial institutions are now blacklisted, with the Chinese Commerce Ministry already criticizing the move.
  
  The fact that Brussels now feels confident and can find unanimity to target Beijing in this way is something new.
  
  New EU restrictions, such as a ban on refined petroleum products made from Russian crude oil and processed in third countries, are also expected to affect China indirectly.
  
  An EU official involved in summit preparations told RFE/RL that no major shift is expected in Beijing’s “no-limits partnership” with Moscow, but Brussels hopes for modest steps, such as tighter customs and financial controls on dual-use goods.
  
  Trade Deficit
  
  The afternoon discussion with Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang will focus on the economic relationship and is expected to be equally delicate.
  
  The EU and China are each other’s second biggest trading partners with trade reaching $2.3 billion daily.
  
  But it’s the trade deficit that is irking Brussels.
  
  Compared to last year, it has doubled to the current $350 billion, with subsidies, procurement barriers, and export controls cited by the EU as real irritants.
  
  No major breakthroughs are expected in Beijing, but EU officials hope China might at least acknowledge the concerns and take steps to stimulate domestic demand or address imbalances.
  
  Brussels will also hint at possible reciprocal measures, referencing past actions against Chinese electric vehicles and dairy products.
  
  But the question is how far the bloc is really ready to go.
  
  It does rely on China for critical minerals and permanent magnets -- items that are essential for pretty much all modern technologies.
  
  And, despite the EU’s best efforts to strike new trade deals with the likes of Australia, India and Indonesia to “de-risk” from China, the shortfall will not be covered immediately. Beijing knows this as well.
  
  And then there is the delicate issue of EU-US relations.
  
  Unless a deal can be found in the coming days, American tariffs of 30 percent will hit the EU on August 1 with Brussels poised to strike back with countermeasures on US products worth billions in a move that will derail transatlantic trade.
  
  One EU diplomat told RFE/RL that this was “a prospect that has the Chinese rubbing their hands in sheer delight,” as Beijing has long sought to drive a wedge between Brussels and Washington.
  
  So, expect China in the next few days to very much push the narrative that it, together with Europe, now represents the rules-based international trade order and that the real distorter of commerce and protectionism isn’t to be found in Beijing but in Washington.
  
  Depending on what is happening with the transatlantic trade talks, the EU might just be tempted by such rhetoric.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-24
  UK Raises Ceiling on Wind Power Strike Prices Ahead of Major Auction
  The UK government has raised the maximum prices it is willing to guarantee developers of wind power projects in a bid to reinvigorate investment in renewable energy and keep its ambitious decarbonization targets on track. The increase, announced on July... Read more The UK government has raised the maximum prices it is willing to guarantee developers of wind power projects in a bid to reinvigorate investment in renewable energy and keep its ambitious decarbonization targets on track. The increase, announced on July 23rd, underscores the challenges faced by clean energy developers contending with inflation, rising interest rates, and strained supply chains.
  
  New Administrative Strike Prices
  
  Under the revised terms for the 2025 round of the Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction scheme — the UK's primary mechanism for backing renewable power projects — the administrative strike price (ASP) for offshore wind has been raised to £113 per megawatt-hour (MWh), up from £102/MWh in 2024. Onshore wind will now see a ceiling of £92/MWh, up from £89/MWh.
  
  The CfD scheme provides developers with long-term price certainty by guaranteeing a minimum price for electricity generated. If market prices fall below the agreed rate, the government compensates the difference through a levy on consumer bills. However, if market prices exceed the strike price, developers must pay back the surplus.
  
  While the ASP represents the upper limit of potential bids, actual clearing prices are typically lower as developers compete for contracts. Officials at the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero emphasized that the ASP "is not a prediction of price — the auction will reveal the true price."
  
  A Big Bet on Offshore Wind
  
  This year’s auction round is expected to be the largest ever, according to ministers, as the UK races to deliver its clean energy commitments. Offshore wind — central to the UK's ambition of decarbonizing its power system by 2030 — is a particular focus, with the country aiming to triple its offshore wind capacity from around 15 GW today to between 43 and 50 GW by the end of the decade.
  
  To make investments more appealing, the government had already extended the CfD contract length from 15 years to 20 years in reforms unveiled on July 15, hoping that longer revenue certainty would allow developers to accept lower guaranteed prices.
  
  The updated rules also grant the Energy Secretary the ability to review developer bids before finalizing auction budgets, a move designed to increase flexibility and improve procurement outcomes.
  
  “These reforms will give developers the certainty they need to build in Britain,” said Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, highlighting the government's efforts to attract global investment and deliver thousands of jobs across the UK’s green energy supply chain.
  
  Wind Power Under Pressure
  
  The offshore and onshore wind sectors have been rocked by cost inflation in recent years. Developers have warned that without higher strike prices, many planned projects would be unviable. The decision to raise price ceilings is a response to those economic realities.
  
  According to the government, the new price caps will be “less relevant” this year due to changes in how auctions are conducted, but critics argue that the higher ASPs signal a government overly committed to rigid decarbonization timelines.
  
  Opposition energy spokesperson Claire Coutinho described the strike price adjustments as “gruesome,” arguing that they reflect an overly aggressive push to meet Labour’s 2030 targets “no matter the cost.”
  
  During its election campaign, Labour pledged to cut household energy bills by £300 per year by transitioning away from fossil fuels. Yet, with wholesale power prices currently hovering between £70–75/MWh, these elevated strike prices have the potential to add upward pressure on bills, depending on future market dynamics. Source: Oilprice.com

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