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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
614.29
-51.05
746.00
+1.00
Apr 24
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	614.29	-51.05	746.00	+1.00	Apr 24

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
553.59	+4.67	685.37	+1.81	873.85	+1.23	Apr 26

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MBP INDEX vs DBP INDEX (ICE/NYMEX)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	MBP Index	DBP Index	Diff	Date
Rotterdam	494	560	-66	602	664	-62	746	843	-97	Apr 26
Singapore	526	575	-49	648	672	-24	775	852	-77	Apr 26
Fujairah	512	585	-73	647	668	-21	890	900	-10	Apr 26
Houston	495	542	-47	620	678	-58	790	779	+11	Apr 26

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Latest News
- 2024-04-26
  EUROPE: EUROPEAN SHIPOWNERS WELCOME 40% PRODUCTION BENCHMARK FOR LOW-CARBON MARINE FUELS IN EUROPE
  The European Community Shipowners’ Association (ECSA) has welcomed the inclusion of low-carbon fuels for shipping - including advanced biofuels and e-fuels - in the list of net-zero technologies adopted under the Net-Zero Industry Act. The new law... Read more
- 2024-04-26
  ASIA PACIFIC: NAMURA SHIPBUILDING DELIVERS LPG-FUELLED LPG/AMMONIA CARRIER
  Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL) has announced that the LPG dual-fuelled LPG/ammonia carrier Aquamarine Progress II was delivered today (26 April) by Namura Shipbuilding. The vessel was order by MOL group company Aramo Shipping (Singapore) and will sail under... Read more
- 2024-04-26
  GLOBAL: BIMCO: ‘NORMALISATION OF SHIP ROUTINGS COULD COOL DRY BULK MARKET’
  While the re-routing of bulk shipping away from the Red Sea has increased average sailing distances and added to ship demand, BIMCO says that ship routings could return to normal in the second half of the year and ‘cool the dry bulk market’. The shipping... Read more
- 2024-04-26
  AMERICA: US GOVERNMENT LAUNCHES ‘FIRST EVER NATIONAL GOAL OF ZERO-EMISSIONS FREIGHT SECTOR’
  The Biden-Harris Administration has announced ‘a first-ever national goal to transition to a zero-emissions freight sector for truck, rail, aviation and marine’. In a statement issued yesterday (24 April) on the White House website, the Administration... Read more
- 2024-04-26
  GLOBAL: BV VERIFUEL RELEASES Q4 2023 BUNKER QUALITY STATISTICS
  Fuel viscosity tracked an upwards curve in 2023 across very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and DMA 0.1% grades, according to new statistics published by Bureau Veritas VeriFuel. For high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), average viscosity in Q4 2023 was 312 cSt,... Read more
- 2024-04-26
  Oil prices on track to snap two-week losing streak
  Oil prices rose on Friday, on track to end higher this week after two straight weeks of losses, after a top U.S. official expressed optimism over economic growth and as supply concerns lingered due to conflicts in the Middle East. Brent crude futures... Read more Oil prices rose on Friday, on track to end higher this week after two straight weeks of losses, after a top U.S. official expressed optimism over economic growth and as supply concerns lingered due to conflicts in the Middle East.
  Brent crude futures gained 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $89.32 a barrel at 0347 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $83.80 a barrel.
  For the week, Brent has gained 2.3% so far, while WTI is up 0.8%.
  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Thursday U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter could be revised higher, and inflation will ease after a clutch of "peculiar" factors held the economy to its weakest showing in nearly two years.
  U.S. economic growth was likely stronger than suggested by weaker-than-expected quarterly data, she said.
  Data showed that economic growth slowed in the first quarter, and prior to Yellen's comments, tremors from an acceleration in inflation had weighed on oil prices as investors calculated that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September.
  Elsewhere, supply concerns as geopolitical tensions continue in the Middle East also buoyed prices early in the session.
  Israel stepped up airstrikes on Rafah after saying it would evacuate civilians from the southern Gazan city and launch an all-out assault despite allies' warnings this could cause mass casualties. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2024-04-26
  U.S. Natural Gas Could Be A Big Winner of The AI Boom
  U.S. natural gas producers and shippers could be one of the big winners of the latest advances in Artificial Intelligence. The surge in data centers amid the booming AI technology development is set to lead to higher U.S. natural demand and prices... Read more U.S. natural gas producers and shippers could be one of the big winners of the latest advances in Artificial Intelligence.
  
  The surge in data centers amid the booming AI technology development is set to lead to higher U.S. natural demand and prices by the end of the decade, according to investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.
  
  Natural Gas To Meet Some of Power Demand Spike
  
  Electricity demand to power the data centers is soaring and so is demand for grid connections. While many tech companies prefer to power their AI development centers with solar and wind, the need to get these data centers built and powered fast would boost demand for natural gas, too.
  
  This could raise further doubts about the current U.S. Administration’s plans to have the U.S. grid increasingly greener and generate 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035. Considering that natural gas is currently the single-biggest source of power generation in America, this target of the Biden Administration has been questioned and viewed as unattainable even before the surge in power demand, which has reversed years of falling or flat electricity consumption.
  
  As electricity demand from data centers is set to jump to as much as 42 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, from 11 GW now, the U.S. would need an additional 8.5 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas (Bcf/d) to meet the rise in consumption, according to a report from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co cited by Reuters.
  Related: Gas Prices Likely to Keep Falling Ahead of Peak Driving Season
  
  Therefore, natural gas demand for power generation is set to jump in the second half of this decade, and U.S. benchmark natural gas prices could average as much as $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the report notes.
  
  That’s more than double the current Henry Hub natural gas price, which has lingered below $2 per MMBtu for most of this year amid milder winter weather and lower demand for heating and power.
  
  Gas Producers and Shippers to Benefit from Soaring Power Demand
  
  Natural gas producers are currently curtailing some output amid the market glut but are prepared to boost production later in the year and expect rising domestic power demand and LNG exports to raise consumption and prices.
  
  Top natural gas producers EQT Corporation and Chesapeake Energy, as well as pipeline giants such as Energy Transfer, Williams Companies, and Kinder Morgan, are expected to benefit from the soaring power demand and rising natural gas prices as a result, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co said.
  
  Last week, Kinder Morgan issued an upbeat outlook on its natural gas transportation business in the medium to long term despite the current low prices.
  
  “Notwithstanding the current low natural gas price environment, the future looks very bright for our Natural Gas Pipelines business segment,” the pipeline giant said in its Q1 earnings release.
  
  Kinder Morgan sees substantial growth in U.S. natural gas demand by 2030, led by more than a doubling of demand for LNG exports and a more than 50% increase in exports to Mexico.
  
  “We are also anticipating significant new natural gas demand for electric generation associated with artificial intelligence operations, crypto currency mining and data centers, which would be additive to the growth discussed above,” CEO Kim Dang said.
  
  U.S. natural gas producers also believe they have a role to play in providing gas for the soaring power demand from data centers and AI technologies.
  
  Natural gas, which currently meets 43.1% of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation, will continue to meet a large part of American power demand as new renewables capacity installations will need backup power generation, according to gas industry executives.
  
  “We’ve got a really amazing emerging market with LNG,” Toby Rice, chief executive at the top U.S. natural gas producer, EQT, told the Financial Times earlier this year.
  
  “But there’s a new emerging market that people are getting equally as excited about — and it’s power demand.”
  
  So great is electricity consumption from data centers that U.S. utilities and regulators have raised significantly their forecasts for peak power demand in the coming decade.
  
  After more than a decade of flatlining power consumption in America, the AI boom and the chip and other tech manufacturing are leading to higher U.S. electricity demand.
  
  Currently, nearly 2,600 gigawatts (GW) of generation and storage capacity are actively seeking grid interconnection, according to research from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory published earlier this month. The queues indicate particularly strong interest in solar, battery storage, Berkeley Lab said, but noted that the growing grid connection backlog has become a major bottleneck for project development.
  
  “It is promising to see the unprecedented interest and investment in new energy and storage development across the U.S., but the latest queue data also affirm that grid interconnection remains a persistent bottleneck,” said Joseph Rand, an Energy Policy Researcher at Berkeley Lab, and lead author of the study.
  
  Many tech companies want clean energy to power their new data centers, but utilities are struggling to keep up with this demand. As a result, some utilities in the eastern and southern parts of the U.S. are proposing build-outs of new natural gas-fired capacity alongside renewables to support the growth in electricity consumption coming from data centers.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2024-04-26
  MABUX: Global bunker indices to change sideways on on April 26.
  MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) showed a slight downward movement on Apr. 25: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 548.92 (-1.43) VLSFO - USD/MT – 683.56 (-4.20) MGO - USD/MT – 872.62 (-3.46) As... Read more MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO) showed a slight downward movement on Apr. 25:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 548.92 (-1.43)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 683.56 (-4.20)
  MGO - USD/MT – 872.62 (-3.46)
  
  As of Apr. 25, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index (MDI), tracking the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker price benchmark (DBP), registered the following price trends across major ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
  
  - HSFO segment: All four selected ports continued to be undercharged, with underprice premiums narrowing by $1 in Singapore, $5 in Fujairah, and $2 in Houston. The MDI index in Rotterdam remained unchanged.
  
  - VLSFO segment: All four ports were in the underprice zone. Undercharge margins decreased by $1 in Rotterdam, and $1 in Fujairah, but increased by $2 in Singapore, and $3 in Houston.
  
  - MGO LS segment: Houston was registered as the only overpriced port, with the ratio rising by $4. The other three ports were undercharged, with margins rising by $4 in Rotterdam, $4 in Singapore, and $5 in Fujairah. The MDI index in Rotterdam remained above the $100 mark.
  
  We do not expect a firm trend in the Global bunker market on Apr. 26: 380 HSFO – plus 1-3 USD/MT, VLSFO – plus 2-5 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 1-5 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2024-04-26
  Azerbaijan is Quietly Playing a Key Role in Russia's Economic Plans
  When the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia met on April 22 at the Kremlin, it wasn't Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, or Iran that took center stage. It was the 50th anniversary of a Soviet railroad construction project. The occasion for the visit, at... Read more When the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia met on April 22 at the Kremlin, it wasn't Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, or Iran that took center stage. It was the 50th anniversary of a Soviet railroad construction project.
  
  The occasion for the visit, at least officially, was to mark the 1974 start of construction of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railway in the Russian Far East. The project was headed by Heydar Aliyev, in his role as first deputy chairman of the Soviet Union's Council of Ministers.
  
  Fifty years later that Aliyev's son -- Ilham Aliyev, now president of Azerbaijan -- and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow with a group of veterans of the BAM construction. They were there to celebrate what Putin, at the event, called an early version of Russia's "pivot to the East," a precursor to its efforts today to wean itself from the Western-dominated economy.
  
  The BAM event was a bit of an artificially created pretext. As the Russian newspaper Kommersant noted, the main celebration of the railroad anniversary won't take place until July, so Putin and Aliyev were marking it "significantly ahead of schedule."
  
  But the nostalgic backdrop was a fitting one. Not only are railroads rising to the top of the Azerbaijan-Russia agenda, but decades after Heydar -- who would eventually rise to become one of the most senior officials in the Soviet Union -- an Aliyev is again wielding significant influence in Moscow.
  
  Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine just over two years ago set off a chain reaction of geopolitical consequences in the Caucasus, and Azerbaijan, by virtue of its natural resources and strategic location, has come out the winner in almost all of them.
  
  The Ukraine war made Azerbaijan more important to Europe -- which needs both the country's energy resources and its position on east-west transit routes to work around its previous dependence on Russia -- as well as in Russia, which even more acutely needs Azerbaijan's position on north-south transit routes that allow it to work around Western sanctions.
  
  Russia's overstretch in Ukraine, meanwhile, meant that Moscow was less capable of enforcing the cease-fire agreement it had brokered in 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the Second Karabakh War. Despite the presence of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers, Azerbaijan was able to consistently press its advantage in the ethnic Armenian-populated territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, ultimately leading to Azerbaijan recapturing full control of the territory in September 2023. That, in turn, spurred Armenia to shift away from its traditional reliance on Russian security guarantees in favor of tighter relations with the West.
  
  Aliyev flew to Moscow with Azerbaijan's star perhaps higher than it's ever been and Russia's sway in the Caucasus at a nadir. Underscoring that trend, the week before Aliyev's visit saw two more events that illustrated vividly the decline of Russian authority in the Caucasus.
  
  First, Russia confirmed that its peacekeepers were pulling out of Karabakh well ahead of the November 2025 date that had been previously agreed. Then, Armenia and Azerbaijan announced that they had reached a deal for Armenia to hand over some slices of occupied territory without any mediation from outside, including Russia, which had been playing a significant role in border demarcation issues.
  
  Neither event was mentioned at all during the public remarks by the two men, other than a vague allusion by Aliyev to "regional security." Instead, Aliyev and Putin discussed railroads and other economic ties.
  
  The economic agenda suited Azerbaijan, which is eager to manage its affairs without interference from any external power, including Russia.
  
  "Of course, 'agriculture' and 'tourism' don't look as significant in the news as 'peacekeepers' or 'negotiations on a resolution of the conflict with Russian mediation,'" wrote one commentator in the pro-government Azerbaijani news site Minval.az ahead of the Kremlin visit. "But now, when -- as President Aliyev has underscored many times -- the time has come to turn the page on the Karabakh conflict, it is exactly these kinds of 'boring' themes like investment, jobs, and economic dividends for ordinary citizens that will occupy the main place in negotiations."
  
  While it may be arguably more "boring" than war and peace, the expansion of trade routes through Azerbaijan is nevertheless strategically critical for Russia. And that issue dominated the (public, at least) agenda for the Putin-Aliyev meeting.
  
  St. Petersburg To The Persian Gulf
  
  The key project for Moscow is the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), a series of rail, ship, and road routes connecting Russia to Iran and its Persian Gulf ports. The most promising route goes through Azerbaijan, the only country that borders both Russia and Iran and which already has a railroad connecting the two countries.
  
  While the INSTC has long been on the drawing board, it got a new impetus following the war in Ukraine and ensuing Western attempts to economically isolate Russia.
  
  "We have been implementing projects in the field of transport for many years. The Russia-Ukraine war has enhanced the importance of our work," Aliyev said in January 2023 in remarks to local press.
  
  In May 2023, Russia and Iran signed an agreement to complete construction of a railroad from the Iran-Azerbaijan border, at Astara, to Rasht, in northern Iran. That represents the last missing rail link to connect St. Petersburg to the Persian Gulf.
  
  In 2016, Azerbaijan agreed to partially finance the construction (along with Iran) before dropping the project two years later because of international sanctions against Iran. Now, it will be Russia footing the bill to build the Rasht-Astara line.
  
  Putin has repeatedly spoken of the INSTC as a key element in plans to reorient the world economy away from Western dominance. And the BAM anniversary gave him occasion to reiterate that.
  
  "In its scale and historical significance, the BAM is comparable to another direction of Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation: the development of the North-South Transportation Corridor," Putin said at a meeting with Aliyev and veterans of the Soviet railroad construction project. The INSTC will mean "the formation of new logistics routes with the aim of accelerating the economic and social development of the countries of Eurasia and the Global South."
  
  Azerbaijan has, by contrast, been relatively quiet about its role in the INSTC. It was left to Russian Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev to tell reporters at the event that Azerbaijan is carrying out upgrades of its own railway that should allow it to more than double the cargo transported along the route.
  
  The shift from hard power to regional transportation projects should be seen as a sort of strategic retreat for Russia in the Caucasus, says Laurence Broers, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank.
  
  "The departure of Russia's peacekeeping mission from Karabakh...represents a significant strategic win for Baku," Broers wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "Regional powers, especially Russia and Iran, are working together to establish a new strategic equilibrium in the South Caucasus. This is Russia's next-best option to unilateral hegemony and which could offset the loss of hegemonic power plays -- such as its peacekeeping mission in Karabakh."
  
  Russians In Zangezur
  
  There is one more potential Russian power play in the Caucasus that was conspicuously unmentioned at the Putin-Aliyev meeting: transportation routes connecting Azerbaijan's mainland with its exclave of Naxcivan through Armenian territory, a project that has become known by the Azerbaijani name for it, the Zangezur Corridor.
  
  The establishment of the route was laid out in the Russian-brokered cease-fire agreement that ended the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. That agreement stipulated that Russian border guards would provide security along the route.
  
  Since then, however, nearly every other provision in the cease-fire agreement has been violated, and it is effectively, if not formally, dead. In light of its plummeting trust in Russia, Armenia, along with U.S. and European negotiators, is seeking other possibilities for security, such as private companies or international organizations.
  
  But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in January, again insisted that the 2020 agreement should regulate Russia's presence on the road.
  
  Publicly, Azerbaijan continues to support the Russia option. The 2020 cease-fire statement "indicated that Russian border guards would provide security and control" in the part of the route that passes through Armenia, "and this obligation must be fulfilled," Aliyev said in a January interview with local television. "Armenia wants to shy away from this now."
  
  Behind the scenes, however, Azerbaijan may also be trying to get Russia out of the picture.
  
  "There is skepticism on both sides regarding Russia," said Fuad Shahbazov, an independent Azerbaijani analyst.
  
  "Russia is the one pushing more for the corridor because it wants to stay here for a long time under the guise of security," he said. "Azerbaijan doesn't say it loudly, but it also doesn't want to see Russians" guarding the transportation routes.
  
  Baku's insistence on following the 2020 agreement may be a bargaining technique, says Shujaat Ahmadzada, a nonresident research fellow at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center, which focuses on international relations and security. "First, it sustains pressure on Armenia," he said. "Second, it transforms the issue into more of a Russian-Armenian dispute, exploiting any disagreements between them, which could aid Azerbaijan in expanding its negotiating leverage."
  
  Playing All Sides
  
  Aliyev met Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy at the Munich Security Conference in February. Speaking in English to his fellow native Russian speaker, Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan's "support to Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty...we are a country that understands occupation and violation of territorial integrity very well."
  
  Meanwhile, hard-line Russian politician Leonid Slutsky recently called Aliyev "the most reliable leader in the post-Soviet space."
  
  Azerbaijan has long sought to play it every way and balance its relations with various partners, and its rising clout in the wake of the Ukraine war has only strengthened its ability to do so.
  
  It's not only Russia's dependence on Azerbaijan. The two countries still have many other interests in common, wrote Aleksandr Karavayev, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in a piece on the Azerbaijani website Haqqin.az published ahead of Aliyev's visit.
  
  One of the shared interests is an antipathy for Armenia's pivot to the West. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's own relatively good relations with the West don't prohibit Baku from carrying out tactical anti-Western efforts of its own, such as against France or the United States.
  
  Another shared interest is close economic cooperation, which has in fact grown since the launch of the Ukraine war: Karavayev noted that the Russian automaker AvtoVAZ has started assembling Lada cars in Azerbaijan and that the two countries are looking to expand production of Russian rail cars and aircraft in Azerbaijan.
  
  "For Russia, Azerbaijan is...a 'flag of convenience' for relocating industrial enterprises and several segments of Russian business that have fallen under restrictions of the Western alliance," Karavayev wrote.
  
  But Azerbaijani-Russian relations have historically been up and down, and there are plenty of reasons to doubt a long-term friendship, wrote Russian analyst Sergei Markedonov on his Telegram channel. "Baku and Moscow are getting closer, that is a fact," he wrote. "But the volume of anti-Westernism and pro-Soviet nostalgia differs between us."
  
  Markedonov noted that young Azerbaijanis were often more skeptical of the relationship with Russia and that policymakers in Moscow used to write off similar sentiments in Armenia as the product of "complainers and hacks."
  
  "Now, one of those 'hacks'" -- a reference to former opposition journalist and now Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian -- "is pivoting the foreign policy of his country."
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2024-04-26
  EU Prepares to Tighten Screws on Russian LNG Imports
  In a move that could reshape Europe's energy landscape, the European Commission is poised to propose new sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. According to Reuters sources close to the matter, the proposed measures will include... Read more In a move that could reshape Europe's energy landscape, the European Commission is poised to propose new sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. According to Reuters sources close to the matter, the proposed measures will include a ban on shipments within the EU and sanctions on three Russian LNG projects.
  
  The European Commission's decision comes amid growing concerns over Europe's reliance on Russian energy, particularly in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the EU imposed a ban on Russian seaborne oil imports earlier this year, it has thus far refrained from taking similar action against LNG imports. However, with imports of Russian LNG surging since the start of the war, accounting for around 15% of EU gas supply, pressure has been mounting on Brussels to act.
  
  The proposed ban on trans-shipments within the EU is aimed at preventing the diversion of Russian LNG cargoes to other destinations. Currently, Belgium, France, and Spain are the largest importers of Russian LNG, with many of these imports being re-exported to other countries, including China. By imposing restrictions on trans-shipments, the EU hopes to ensure that Russian LNG does not find its way to markets outside of Europe.
  
  In addition to the ban on trans-shipments, the European Commission is also considering sanctions on three Russian LNG projects - Arctic LNG 2, Ust Luga, and Murmansk. While the details of these sanctions are still being discussed, they are expected to target projects that are not yet operational, further complicating Russia's efforts to expand its LNG exports.
  
  The move by the European Commission reflects growing unease within the EU over its dependence on Russian energy. With tensions between Russia and the West showing no signs of abating, European policymakers are increasingly looking for ways to reduce Europe's exposure to Russian energy supplies. By targeting Russian LNG imports, the EU hopes to send a clear message to Moscow that its actions in Ukraine will not go unpunished.
  
  However, the proposed sanctions are likely to face resistance from some EU member states, particularly those that are heavily reliant on Russian energy. Nevertheless, with pressure mounting on Brussels to take action, it seems increasingly likely that Europe's energy landscape could be in for a significant shake-up in the coming months. Source: Oilprice.com