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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
750.00
0.00
630.00
-3.00
Mar 13
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	750.00	0.00	630.00	-3.00	Mar 13

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
499.35	-0.04	581.27	+2.81	759.75	+0.04	Mar 13

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	442	440	+2	500	500	0	630	628	+2	Mar 13
Singapore	477	449	+28	513	539	-26	643	661	-18	Mar 13
Fujairah	459	490	-31	510	545	-35	737	814	-77	Mar 13
Houston	416	457	-41	515	575	-60	665	679	-14	Mar 13

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Latest News
- 2025-03-14
  Oil bounces as Ukraine ceasefire deal remains elusive
  Oil prices rebounded on Friday to recover some of their more than 1% losses in the previous session, partly due to diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could bring back more Russian energy supplies. Brent crude futures rose 46... Read more Oil prices rebounded on Friday to recover some of their more than 1% losses in the previous session, partly due to diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war that could bring back more Russian energy supplies.
  Brent crude futures rose 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $70.34 a barrel by 0406 GMT after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $67.03 a barrel, up 48 cents, or 0.7%, after closing down 1.7% on Thursday.
  Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Moscow supported a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in principle, but sought a number of clarifications and conditions that appeared to rule out a quick end to the fighting.
  "Russia’s tepid support of a 30-day cease-fire proposal with Ukraine has reduced confidence around a ceasefire in the short term," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
  "The feeling is that U.S. won’t lift sanctions until they agree a ceasefire."
  However, the global trade war that has roiled financial markets and raised recession fears is escalating with U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday threatening to slap a 200% tariff on wine, cognac and other alcohol imports from Europe.
  The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the United States and weaker than expected global demand.
  "The macroeconomic conditions that underpin our oil demand projections deteriorated over the past month as trade tensions escalated between the U.S. and several other countries," the IEA said, prompting it to revise down its demand growth estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.
  
  The Trump-driven trade war woes and demand worries dented oil prices on the previous day, though the possibility of less Russian oil in the global markets in the near term provided some cushion during Friday’s trade.
  "Most price projections were to the downside in the short term, but geopolitical tension could still cause supply disruptions," ANZ analysts said in a note to clients. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2025-03-14
  Ex-Pioneer CEO: Shale Can’t Thrive at $50 Oil
  The founder of Pioneer Natural Resources has a warning for the U.S. oil producers—the next two years will not be easy, and “drill, baby, drill” isn’t happening at $50 oil price. Scott Sheffield, who founded Pioneer Natural Resources and sold last year... Read more The founder of Pioneer Natural Resources has a warning for the U.S. oil producers—the next two years will not be easy, and “drill, baby, drill” isn’t happening at $50 oil price.
  
  Scott Sheffield, who founded Pioneer Natural Resources and sold last year the top Permian basin producer to ExxonMobil for $60 billion, expects two or three years in which the U.S. shale patch will have to reinvent itself – once again – if it wants to remain a relevant force on the market at a lower price of oil, which the Trump Administration wants.
  
  Since the first shale revolution, producers and drillers have shown during several boom-and-bust cycles that they can achieve cost reductions and efficiency gains and lower their breakeven prices.
  
  This time around, a “drill, baby, drill” boom is not on the horizon, industry executives warned as early as November when President Donald Trump was elected.
  
  Growth in the U.S. shale patch was already slowing even before November. With many new uncertainties about global supply and demand and economic growth in the United States and China, America’s oil producers are in for a rollercoaster ride in the coming months.
  
  If oil prices continue to trend lower and fall below $60 and further down toward $50 per barrel – which appears to be a preferred price for the White House – U.S. oil producers would begin another cycle of consolidation and cost cuts (even including job reductions) to ride out the next price decline.
  
  Related: Kremlin Rep Rejects Ceasefire Deal As U.S. Officials Arrive in Moscow
  
  The new administration’s drive to ease the regulatory, permitting, and fiscal burdens on the U.S. oil and gas industry clashes with President Trump’s stated priority of pushing oil prices lower to reduce energy costs for American consumers.
  
  The tariff and trade wars aren’t helping, either.
  
  Uncertainty around which tariff is being placed today then delayed or removed tomorrow is complicating the already complex job of the U.S. producers to budget for drilling plans and capital expenditure.
  
  “You’ve really got to hunker down”
  
  Pioneer’s founder and industry veteran Sheffield has some advice for the U.S. oil firms.
  
  “You’ve really got to hunker down,” Sheffield told a Bloomberg Television interview on the sidelines of CERAWeek by S&P Global conference this week.
  
  “You may have to lay off some people. You’ve got to focus on your best prospects. We’ll see what happens over the next two or three years,” Sheffield told Bloomberg in Houston, which hosts one of the biggest industry conferences.
  
  Oil prices are likely to fall into the range of $50 to $60 per barrel, Sheffield says, noting that American producers will struggle at these prices.
  
  “It’s really hard to make money at $50 oil,” Sheffield told Bloomberg.
  
  “That $50 oil is not going to work”
  
  Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright told the Financial Times that shale producers could increase production even if oil prices fell to $50 per barrel as the sector continues to innovate and boost efficiency gains.
  
  Sheffield believes that there is a chance companies could make it at $50 oil.
  
  “Every time you go through a downturn, you got to think out of the box and how to live with a lower price,” the now retired shale pioneer told Bloomberg.
  
  However, the months ahead will not be easy, especially if oil prices slide further.
  
  The cash breakeven price, including dividends, is $50-$55 for U.S. oil companies, and “that $50 oil is not going to work,” Sheffield told CNBC on the sidelines of CERAWeek.
  
  Rising Costs with Tariffs
  
  With the tariffs thrown in the equation, Sheffield said that every time the U.S. imposes steel and aluminum tariffs, U.S. steel makers raise their prices, which “costs us more to drill a well.”
  
  Sheffield said that he hopes that President Trump’s tariff policies would be successful and the President “has two years to prove it.”
  
  In the U.S., onshore oil and gas appears to be one of the segments in the energy sector most exposed to tariffs, with steel contributing to a high proportion of the total cost through linepipe, plates, coils, and bars for onshore oil and gas facilities, Rystad Energy said last month. US shale and offshore oil and gas projects are most likely to see cost rises in the region of 5% to 10%, the consultancy said.
  
  Rising costs and declining oil prices is a combination that’s unlikely to lead to a “drill, baby, drill” in the oil patch soon.
  
  The priorities of the U.S. oil industry have drastically changed since President Trump’s first term.
  
  The U.S. shale patch is drilling, but it is drilling because it wants to distribute more of the profits to shareholders. It has made huge progress in capital discipline and efficiency gains and is getting more bang for its buck. Priorities are now returns to investors and financial frames capable of withstanding oil price volatility.
  
  With all the ongoing uncertainties about supply, demand, and costs, U.S. shale faces another round of consolidation and innovation to try to remain profitable at lower oil prices. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-03-14
  Saudi Aramco, IEA Chiefs Clash In Houston Over The Future Of Oil
  With the CERAWeek 2025 conference in Houston drawing to a close, C-Suite executives, ministers and top officials have weighed in on the trajectory of the global oil and gas sector with experts debating whether tariffs, trade, and competition will replace... Read more With the CERAWeek 2025 conference in Houston drawing to a close, C-Suite executives, ministers and top officials have weighed in on the trajectory of the global oil and gas sector with experts debating whether tariffs, trade, and competition will replace security, affordability, and sustainability in shaping energy markets and policy. However, one of the biggest highlights of the conference has been the showdown between Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol and their highly divergent views on the future of the global oil industry. Once again, the Aramco CEO was adamant that there were “inherent flaws” in the energy transition away from conventional fuels, saying, “So I pay little attention to forecasts claiming that next year will be peak this, or peak that,” in a thinly-veiled dig at the IEA which has predicted a peak in oil demand by the end of the current decade.
  
  In its defense, the IEA says an oil demand peak doesn't necessarily mean a rapid plunge in fossil fuel consumption is imminent, adding that it will probably be followed by “an undulating plateau lasting for many years.” Indeed, Fatih Birol reiterated that position in his remarks to the Houston conference, where he said investments in existing oil and gas fields are still needed to counter steep natural declines. Whereas some analysts interpreted this as an about-face, designed to pander to Trump and his “drill baby drill” agenda, in reality the IEA has never advocated for an end to investments in upstream oil and gas.
  
  “Even as demand for fossil fuels falls, energy security challenges will remain since the process of adjustment to changing demand patterns will not necessarily be easy or smooth. For example, the peaks in demand we see based on today’s policies do not remove the need for investment in oil and gas supply, given how steep the natural declines from existing fields often are,” the IEA stated in its 2023 World Energy Outlook.
  
  Republican lawmakers have threatened to reassess funding for the IEA, accusing it of becoming an “energy transition cheerleader.”
  
  Cutting Emissions, Not Oil
  
  With the global energy transition picking up steam, hundreds of companies have laid out plans to cut their greenhouse gas emissions with the more ambitious ones pledging to achieve net zero emissions. Given this backdrop, Big Oil companies are finding themselves in a dilemma whereby they are under pressure to join the fight against climate change at a time when demand for the energy commodities they produce remains high. Not surprisingly, many are coming up with innovative ways to clean up their act without giving up their legacy businesses.
  
  Saudi Aramco is not any different. The world’s biggest oil and gas company has unveiled plans to reach net-zero by 2050 without sacrificing oil and gas production.
  
  During a rare two-day visit by Fortune last May, the world’s largest fossil fuel company lifted the curtain on dozens of research projects underway at its headquarters in Dhahran, in eastern Saudi Arabia, which the company believes will help it tackle climate change, even while pumping a mammoth 9 million barrels or so of oil a day. Aramco claims its tech breakthroughs have the potential to cut carbon emissions from each barrel of oil it produces by 15% by 2035, equivalent to 51.1 million tons of carbon a year.
  
  “We don’t see any contradiction. Combating emissions from these conventional energy sources is a very viable option,” says Ashraf Al-Ghazzawi, executive vice president for strategy and corporate development.
  
  “We need all sources of energy to meet the growth in demand, which is just tremendous in the developing world. The main pillar of our strategy and technology is efficiency and optimization of our existing production,” Ahmad Al-Khowaiter, Aramaco’s executive vice president for technology and innovation, told Fortune. According to Khowaiter, the company has tripled its research-and-development staff since 2010, and listed 1,033 patents with the U.S. patent office. Aramco now spends about $800 million a year on R&D, 60% of which is focused on “sustainability”.
  
  Carbon capture is one of the technologies Aramco has adopted to cut emissions. At its Hawiyah gas plant, the company captures carbon emitted during oil and gas production; transports it 50 miles away then injects it into an oil well to boost the recovery of crude, as well as to store the carbon. Khowaiter revealed that the company aims to cut the cost of carbon capture by 50%, making it commercially viable. In December, Saudi Aramco signed a shareholders’ agreement with Linde Plc (NYSE:LIN) and Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB) for dthe evelopment of a 9mn t/y CCS hub at Jubail. Under the agreement, Aramco will hold 60%, with Linde and SLB each taking 20%. The 9mn t/y first-phase facility is due online by end-2027.
  
  Aramco also aims to produce 11 million tonnes of blue ammonia from its Jafurah natural gas field by 2030. For over a decade, the company has explored potential technologies to produce lower-carbon hydrogen from hydrocarbons, including Thermo-Neutral Reforming (TNR) with a goal to produce ‘blue’ hydrogen from about two million tonnes of blue hydrogen--by capturing the CO2 emissions from the production. However, Aramco is likely to struggle to find a buyer for its blue ammonia, with CEO Amin Nasser revealing its blue hydrogen costs the equivalent of about $250 a barrel of oil– three times higher than the current Brent spot price.
  
  “It is very difficult to identify any off-take agreement in Europe [for blue hydrogen]... and they explained it's because of the high cost. Even the customers in Japan and Korea [which are planning massive H2 economies] are waiting for government incentives. Until they get these incentives, it’ll be costly for them to pursue that blue hydrogen,” Nasser told a call with analysts.
  
  Figuring out which among the multiple lines of R&D will finally work could take years for Aramco to determine, with time not on its side. Still, the company has rejected any notion that it should cut fossil fuel output, “We were never an either-or company. Aramco provides a great example where emissions can be dealt with, it can be managed,” Ghazzawi, Aramco’s strategy chief, has declared. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-03-14
  Nuclear Fusion Race Intensifies With Chinese Breakthrough
  China just achieved another milestone breakthrough for nuclear fusion technology, bringing the country closer to achieving its goal of commercial nuclear fusion by 2050. This week scientists announced that the nation’s Experimental Advanced Superconducting... Read more China just achieved another milestone breakthrough for nuclear fusion technology, bringing the country closer to achieving its goal of commercial nuclear fusion by 2050. This week scientists announced that the nation’s Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST), achieved a sustained temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius, shattering previous records and bringing nuclear fusion closer to reality.
  
  This breakthrough is just the latest in a long line of milestones for China, where the government has been investing heavily in nuclear fusion research and development as part of a global “high-stakes battle for nuclear fusion supremacy.” Beijing has been outspending every other country in the world on fusion research at approximately $1.5 billion per year – approximately double Washington’s spending.
  
  The potential ramifications of achieving commercial nuclear fusion are difficult to overstate. In the words of a recent Daily Galaxy report, “If China or any other nation succeeds in making fusion commercially viable, it could trigger an energy revolution, transforming how the world powers homes, industries, and even space exploration.”
  
  The EAST experiment, located in Hefei, Anhui province, is often referred to as an “artificial sun,” as it generates plasma to mimic the process by which our sun powers itself. This is achieved by fusing hydrogen atoms together, rather than traditional nuclear power production, which generates energy by splitting atoms in a process known as nuclear fission. While nuclear fission has proven to be much easier to achieve and control, nuclear fusion is seen as the “holy grail” of clean energy, as it doesn’t require any radioactive fuel and produces more energy than fission.
  
  However, achieving nuclear fusion requires the creation of insanely high temperatures, similar to the heat at the center of the sun. For this reason, EAST’s recent breakthrough is a major one. At 100 million degrees Celsius – several times hotter than the sun’s core – plasma is created and atoms smash into each other, naturally fusing and releasing huge bursts of energy in the process.
  
  However, despite these recent breakthroughs, the nuclear fusion sector still faces significant challenges in making the technology commercially viable and scalable. As Bloomberg reports, nuclear fusion “is notoriously difficult to carry out in a sustained and usable manner and only a handful of countries like the US, Russia and South Korea have managed to crack the basics.”
  
  Scientists are still struggling to sustain high enough temperatures to maintain plasma for any meaningful length of time. They are also putting so much energy into creating the right conditions that the energy released from the fusion itself doesn’t break even with the energy inputs. There is also still much work to be done toward developing materials able to resist ultra-high temperatures for magnetic confinement.
  
  Scientists are also looking into other ways to create fusion. While some of the world’s biggest nuclear fusion experiments are tokamaks, the donut shaped plasma machines used in the EAST experiment, breakthroughs have also been made with machines employing lasers to superheat hydrogen molecules.
  
  In 2022, scientists at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California used lasers to finally overcome nuclear fusion’s most significant barrier: creating net positive energy. Now it appears that China is building its own giant laser facility in Sichuan province to conduct similar experiments with ignition.
  
  Achieving commercial nuclear fusion will be a golden ticket for the nation that achieves it, and China seems determined to be that nation. But putting politics aside, creating commercial energy through nuclear fusion would be a huge win for the entire world, with the potential to create nearly limitless clean energy and put concerns about climate change to rest. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-03-14
  MABUX: Global bunker indices to shift slightly downward on Mar.14.
  MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO), showed no clear trend on March 13, with only minor and irregular fluctuations: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 499.35 (-0.04) VLSFO - USD/MT – 581.27 (+2.81) MGO... Read more MABUX World Bunker Index (as index calculated based on current prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO), showed no clear trend on March 13, with only minor and irregular fluctuations:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 499.35 (-0.04)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 581.27 (+2.81)
  MGO - USD/MT – 759.75 (+0.04)
  
  As of Mar.13, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), monitoring the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP), revealed the following trends across key ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Rotterdam and Singapore stayed overcharged, though premiums narrowed by $4 and $7, respectively. Fujairah and Houston continued to be undercharged, with discounts increasing by $6 and $16, respectively. Rotterdam’s MDI approached a 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam achieved a 100% correlation between MBP and DBP. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undercharged, with discounts rising by $7, $8 and $13, respectively.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam returned to the overcharge zone, with the premium increasing by $10. The other three ports were underpriced, with the gap narrowing by $10 in Singapore and $12 in Fujairah, while Houston’s discount widened by $1. Rotterdam’s MDI remained close to a 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices to trend slightly downward on Mar.14: 380 HSFO – minus 3-5 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 3-6 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 3-7 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2025-03-14
  Europe Faces Late-Winter Test to Its Energy System Resilience
  The warm temperatures in Europe from earlier this week will abruptly shift to freezing conditions in the weekend and next week, testing Europe’s renewable power generation and low natural gas stocks. While this week most of Europe has seen so far temperatures... Read more The warm temperatures in Europe from earlier this week will abruptly shift to freezing conditions in the weekend and next week, testing Europe’s renewable power generation and low natural gas stocks.
  
  While this week most of Europe has seen so far temperatures as high as 20 C (68F), an Arctic blast will send temperatures and wind speeds plummeting, in a late-winter test for Europe’s energy systems.
  
  The UK, Germany, France, and even Spain are expected to experience freezing temperatures as early as this Friday.
  
  “Through the rest of the week it’s going to get even colder,” Honor Criswick, a meteorologist at the UK’s Met Office, told Bloomberg.
  
  Low solar and wind power generation in the wintry conditions will further challenge the systems, all the more so that Europe’s natural gas storage levels are now at around 36% full—much lower than at this time last year.
  
  Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, were trading 2%higher as of 1:38 p.m. in Amsterdam on Thursday amid expectations of rising demand in the cold temperatures and an expected lull in renewable power generation.
  
  So far this winter heating season, cold winter temperatures and spells of low wind power generation have driven strong gas storage withdrawals, which, combined with the expiration of Russian pipeline gas flows through Ukraine, drove up prices.
  
  The IEA warned last month of a tighter LNG market in 2025 as low EU gas inventory levels at the end of this winter “will require much bigger inflows of gas than in the previous two years, increasing Europe’s call on global LNG markets and tightening market fundamentals.”
  
  The good news for Europe is that so far this year, it has been beating on price in Asia, where sufficient inventories and tepid demand have prevented price spikes in spot LNG prices for delivery into northeast Asia. The bad news for Europe is that due to the need to replenish inventories from much lower levels than in previous years, the summer 2025 forward TTF prices have been trading at a premium to the winter 2026 prices, which typically discourages stocking up on a commodity.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-03-14
  OPEC Demands Consistency After Another IEA U-Turn
  This week’s call from the International Energy Agency (IEA) for continued investment in existing oil and gas fields is another moment of truth for the Paris-based agency, highlighting its inconsistent messages about upstream investment, OPEC says. OPEC... Read more This week’s call from the International Energy Agency (IEA) for continued investment in existing oil and gas fields is another moment of truth for the Paris-based agency, highlighting its inconsistent messages about upstream investment, OPEC says.
  
  OPEC reviewed the messages the IEA has issued since 2017 in an article published on its website.
  
  The agency shifted its position that investments are needed at some point between 2018 and 2021. By May 2021, the IEA was already advocating for no investments in new oil and gas fields for a chance to reach net zero.
  
  “However, the IEA executed something of a pleasant U-turn this week,” OPEC said, commenting on the words of IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol, from Monday that the world needs upstream investments in existing oil and gas fields to support global energy security.
  
  “I want to make it clear ... there would be a need for investment, especially to address the decline in the existing fields. There is a need for oil and gas upstream investments, full stop,” Birol said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.
  
  Referring to the latest IEA message, OPEC said “Agencies that recognize the responsibility that comes from offering analysis of the long-term perspectives of the industry should not be shifting positions or mixing messages and narratives every couple of years on this matter, particularly ones that were founded to ensure the security of oil supplies.”
  
  OPEC has slammed the IEA in recent years for “dangerous” forecasts of imminent peak oil demand that would hurt consumers and “only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.”
  
  The world still needs hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars in investments in oil and gas projects every year, OPEC says.
  
  “Time will tell about the full ramifications of the IEA’s calls to stop investing in new projects in the oil industry during the 2021-2024 period,” according to the organization.
  
  “Hopefully, the Agency can return to analysis based on energy realities and focus on its mandate of energy security. In doing so, the IEA can look to a willing partner in OPEC.” Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-03-14
  Qatar To Supply Natural Gas To Syria’s New Government
  Qatar is set to supply Syria with natural gas via Jordan with Washington's approval, Reuters has reported. Qatar was one of the fiercest opponents of the deposed Bashar al-Assad and one of the strongest supporters of the rebels-turned rulers currently... Read more Qatar is set to supply Syria with natural gas via Jordan with Washington's approval, Reuters has reported. Qatar was one of the fiercest opponents of the deposed Bashar al-Assad and one of the strongest supporters of the rebels-turned rulers currently in charge. The gas would be transferred from Jordan via a pipeline to the Deir Ali power plant in southern Syria, where it could boost power supply by up to 400 megawatts. According to the Qatari Charge d'affaires in Syria Khalifa Abdullah Al Sharif, the plan aims to increase power production by an initial 400 MW to the country’s power capacity range up to around 4,000 MW.
  
  Syria is facing an energy crisis after Iraq suspended crude oil deliveries to the country In December. “Iraq has decided to stop providing Syria with crude oil starting this month,”Iraqi member of Parliament Mustafa Sanad said shortly after the overthrow of Assad. Prior to the decision by Baghdad, Syria was importing some ~120,000 barrels of Iraq crude daily. Meanwhile, supplies of crude oil from Iran have also ended following the news of the change in power in Syria. Fuel prices in Syria have skyrocketed due to acute shortages during the transitional period.
  
  Last month, we reported that the European Union discussed a deal to partially suspend several sanctions on Syria’s energy industry, including scrapping bans on importing crude from the country. In a non-paper, the EU proposed the removal of “export ban on oil and gas technology, as well as restrictions on export and participation in infrastructure projects and financing.” An informal EU document is used by member states in closed door negotiations.
  
  According to the paper, the EU was also considering a possible delisting of Al-Qaeda-related factions such as Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as terrorist groups, a move that must be decided at UN Security Council level before being implemented by the EU. HTS--a former Al-Qaeda branch in Syria that was linked to ISIS in the region–led the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime. EU countries are also mulling lifting restrictions on airlines, such as the Syrian Arab Airlines, in order to “facilitate civilian flight operations between the EU and Syria”.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-03-14
  U.S. Tightens the Screws on Iran’s Oil Trade
  The Trump administration just turned up the heat on Iran’s oil operations, slapping fresh sanctions on Iran’s oil minister Mohsen Paknejad and a handful of shadowy tankers sneaking crude to China. Treasury’s reasoning? Paknejad is allegedly funneling... Read more The Trump administration just turned up the heat on Iran’s oil operations, slapping fresh sanctions on Iran’s oil minister Mohsen Paknejad and a handful of shadowy tankers sneaking crude to China. Treasury’s reasoning? Paknejad is allegedly funneling billions in oil revenue directly to Iran’s armed forces, and the ships—some flagged in Hong Kong, Liberia, and Seychelles—are playing an elaborate game of maritime hide-and-seek to keep the crude flowing.
  
  Washington has been running this playbook for years. Sanctions have been a favorite U.S. tool to curb Iran’s oil exports, but Tehran’s response has been equally predictable: deny, deflect, and keep the tankers moving. The so-called "shadow fleet" has mastered the art of deception—turning off transponders, faking ship registrations, and engaging in ship-to-ship transfers in the middle of nowhere to dodge Western oversight.
  
  China, the primary buyer of Iran’s heavily discounted crude, has consistently ignored U.S. sanctions, happily importing Iranian oil under the radar. Even India, though publicly less bold, has been indirectly linked to these shipments. Sanctioning a few tankers and companies might slow things down momentarily, but it won’t change the fact that demand for Iranian crude still exists—and where there’s demand, supply will find a way.
  
  Geopolitically, this is Washington’s way of keeping pressure on Tehran at a time when Iran is making it abundantly clear that it won’t negotiate “under pressure and intimidation.” And with oil prices hovering around $70, the global market has yet to react dramatically. But if these sanctions actually bite and reduce Iranian exports meaningfully, there could be a ripple effect—especially if OPEC+ doesn’t step in to fill the gap. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-03-14
  OPEC+ Ships Record Fuel Volumes, Offsetting Some Crude Supply Curbs
  The major oil producers in the Middle East are exporting record volumes of refined petroleum products, reducing the overall impact of their crude production cuts on the market, Reuters reports, citing flow-tracking data and analysts. OPEC+ producers... Read more The major oil producers in the Middle East are exporting record volumes of refined petroleum products, reducing the overall impact of their crude production cuts on the market, Reuters reports, citing flow-tracking data and analysts.
  
  OPEC+ producers have been curtailing crude oil production and supply for years, aiming to balance and “stabilize the market,” as it repeatedly says.
  
  But the key OPEC+ producers in the Gulf saw their combined fuel exports jump to a record high last year. This has likely negated part of the potential bullish driver coming from the crude production cuts, especially amid slowing Chinese fuel demand growth, according to the Reuters analysis.
  
  The OPEC+ agreement covers the production of crude oil in OPEC and the dozen non-OPEC producers led by Russia that are part of the pact. Refined products are not included in the deal.
  
  So for the Middle Eastern producers with sufficient refining capacity, exports of fuels boost petroleum revenues without infringing on crude oil production quotas.
  
  Shipments by sea of fuels from the Gulf states rose by 7% last year to a new record high, according to data from Kpler and OilX cited by Reuters.
  
  OPEC’s heavyweights Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Kuwait, as well as Oman (not an OPEC producer but an OPEC+ member) exported on average 5.51 million barrels per day (bpd) of refined petroleum products in 2024, up by more than 7% on the year, per the data.
  
  Over the past decade and a half, most Gulf producers have increased their refining capacity and the Middle East has been one of the key regions driving global refining capacity additions in recent years.
  
  Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), for example, commissioned in 2022 the massive new Al-Zour Refinery, one of the largest crude processing plants in the Middle East.
  
  The refinery, which operator Kuwait Integrated Petroleum Industries Company (KIPIC) says is the world’s largest grass-root refinery with 615,000 bpd capacity, began ramping up operations in 2023. Source: Oilprice.com