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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
852.50
+45.00
730.00
-10.00
Jun 23
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	852.50	+45.00	730.00	-10.00	Jun 23

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
508.40	-6.81	589.81	-6.96	811.01	-8.43	Jun 24

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	479	463	+16	520	520	0	730	735	-5	Jun 24
Singapore	483	474	+9	562	566	-4	711	768	-57	Jun 24
Fujairah	466	508	-42	555	570	-15	772	921	-149	Jun 24
Houston	449	479	-30	537	599	-62	713	739	-26	Jun 24

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Latest News
- 2025-06-24
  Oil tumbles to over one-week lows as Trump announces Israel-Iran ceasefire
  Oil prices fell sharply to their lowest in more than a week on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire has been agreed between Iran and Israel, alleviating worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East - a major oil-producing region. Brent... Read more Oil prices fell sharply to their lowest in more than a week on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire has been agreed between Iran and Israel, alleviating worries of supply disruptions in the Middle East - a major oil-producing region.
  Brent crude futures were down $2.08, or 2.9%, at $69.40 a barrel around 0330 GMT, after earlier tumbling more than 4% and touching its lowest level since June 11.
  U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined $2.03, or 3.0%, to $66.48 per barrel, having dived 6% to its weakest level since June 9 earlier in the session.
  Trump announced on Monday that Israel and Iran have fully agreed to a ceasefire, adding that Iran will begin the ceasefire immediately, followed by Israel after 12 hours. If both sides maintain peace, the war will officially end after 24 hours, concluding a 12-day conflict.
  "If the ceasefire is followed as announced, investors might expect the return to normalcy in oil," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.
  "Moving forward, the extent to which Israel and Iran adhere to the recently announced ceasefire conditions will play a significant role in determining oil prices," Sachdeva said.
  Trump said that a "complete and total"ceasefire will go into force with a view to ending the conflict between the two nations.
  "With the ceasefire news we are now seeing a continuation of the risk premium built into crude oil price last week all but evaporate," said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG.
  
  Iran is OPEC’s third-largest crude producer, and the easing of tensions would allow it to export more oil and prevent supply disruptions, a major factor in oil prices jumping in recent days.
  Both the oil contracts settled over 7% lower in the previous session after rallying to five-month-highs after the U.S. attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, stoking fears of a broadening in the Israel-Iran conflict.
  The direct U.S. involvement in the war had also focused investor squarely on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow and vital waterway between Iran and Oman in the Mideast Gulf through which between 18 and 19 million barrels per day of crude oil and fuels flow, nearly a fifth of the world’s consumption.
  Concerns were growing that any disruption to maritime activity through the strait would catapult prices, possibly into three-digit territory.
  
  For now, however, traders were catching their breath from the recent oil price spike.
  "Technically, the overnight sell-off reinforces a layer of resistance between approximately $78.40 (October 2024 and June 2025 highs) and $80.77 (the year-to-date high), and it’s clear that it will take something extremely unexpected and detrimental to supply for crude oil to break through this layer of resistance," Sycamore added.
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2025-06-24
  Oil Prices Tumble as Trump Announces Iran-Israel Ceasefire
  Oil prices continue to plunge on Monday afternoon following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, significantly reducing geopolitical risk premiums. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August delivery... Read more Oil prices continue to plunge on Monday afternoon following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, significantly reducing geopolitical risk premiums. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August delivery fell as much as 5.1% to $65.02 per barrel during early trading in Asia, marking its lowest level since before the conflict began on June 13.
  
  The announcement of a ceasefire, described by Trump on Truth Social as "complete and total," follows intense diplomatic negotiations involving the US, Israel, Iran, and Qatar. If maintained, this ceasefire would effectively conclude a 12-day conflict sparked by Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites and military installations, which prompted missile retaliation by Tehran. The heightened tensions had previously spiked oil prices due to fears of supply disruptions in the critical Middle East region, responsible for roughly a third of global oil production.
  
  Throughout the escalation, major oil infrastructure and critical choke points, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, remained untouched, moderating initial fears of significant supply disruptions. With the immediate threat of further military escalation easing, market attention is expected to shift back toward oil market fundamentals.
  
  The broader outlook for crude suggests increasing supply relative to demand in the latter half of the year, potentially resulting in a build-up of global inventories and further downward pressure on prices.
  
  While President Trump expressed confidence that the ceasefire could become permanent, the phased implementation—beginning with Iran ceasing hostilities, followed by Israel within 24 hours—remains to be confirmed officially by both nations. However, according to Axios, Iran conveyed a message to the White House via Qatar that it would not carry out further attacks and that its response was over.
  
  Should the ceasefire hold, markets will likely experience sustained downward pressure on prices. Traders and analysts would increasingly factor out geopolitical risks that had inflated oil prices and turn their focus toward tangible fundamentals again. This recalibration could lead to more predictable and possibly lower volatility in the next few weeks. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-06-24
  MABUX: Global bunker market to continue downward correction on Jun.24.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO— shifted to a downward movement on June 23: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 515.21 (-8.51) VLSFO - USD/MT – 596.77 (-3.69) MGO - USD/MT – 819.44 (-3.66) As... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO— shifted to a downward movement on June 23:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 515.21 (-8.51)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 596.77 (-3.69)
  MGO - USD/MT – 819.44 (-3.66)
  
  As of Jun.23, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which tracks the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)—revealed undervaluation across all fuel grades at major global ports (Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston):
  
  • HSFO segment: Discount margins narrowed by $7 in Rotterdam, $7 in Singapore, $5 in Fujairah, and $8 in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Underpricing decreased by $5 in Rotterdam, $10 in Singapore, $11 in Fujairah, and $10 in Houston. Houston’s MDI dropped below the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Discounts further declined by $35 in Rotterdam, $26 in Singapore, $31 in Fujairah, and $8 in Houston. Fujairah’s MDI remained above the $100 mark.
  
  We expect a downward trajectory in the global bunker market to continue on June 24, with projected price changes as follows: 380 HSFO – minus 5-20 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 5-25 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 8-35 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2025-06-24
  Oil Prices Crash After Iran Strikes U.S. Bases
  Just hours after the U.S. launched attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, the Iranian parliament expressed support for shutting down the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical routes for fossil fuel transportation, particularly oil... Read more Just hours after the U.S. launched attacks on Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities, the Iranian parliament expressed support for shutting down the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical routes for fossil fuel transportation, particularly oil and LNG. The Middle East conflict, which began on June 13, 2025, following Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military bases and commanders, has now entered its tenth day. The situation escalated dramatically with the U.S. joining Israel in directly bombing Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites—a move that had previously been expected to be carried out solely by American military power.
  
  On Monday afternoon, U.S. Eastern time, Iran launched six missiles at U.S. military bases in Qatar, with explosions reported over Doha, according to Axios. In response, Qatar had closed its airspace "until further notice", and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has also shut its airspace.
  
  Despite the attacks, oil prices are down more than seven percent, with WTI crude falling below $70 per barrel. According to Bloomberg's Javier Blas, the market views Iran’s missile strike as a “perfunctory counterattack”. The Strait of Hormuz remains open and oil is still flowing—including from Iran’s Kharg Island.
  
  The initial impact of the conflict on oil and gas markets remained relatively limited, with Brent crude prices gradually climbing to around USD 79 per barrel—only USD 9 higher than the day before the conflict began. Despite the escalating tensions and President Trump’s two-week warning, prices fell to USD 75 by the end of last week. This contrasts sharply with the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when oil prices surged by about 17%, reaching over USD 110 per barrel in the first week. The modest rise seen in the current conflict was largely due to increased shipping expenses, including higher tanker rates and vessel insurance premiums.
  
  The market’s trajectory could shift significantly if oil and gas transit routes come under sustained threat, rather than being subjected to temporary or symbolic disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz—situated between Oman and Iran—serves as a vital link between the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea. It is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, with an average daily flow of 21 million barrels, accounting for roughly 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption and about 25% of world liquids transit. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-06-24
  The Strait of Hormuz: What It Is, Where It Is, and Why It Matters
  Of all the vast oceans and seas that cover our planet, no single waterway holds more influence over the global economy than a narrow, 21-mile-wide channel of water separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. Every day, a silent, steady procession of the... Read more Of all the vast oceans and seas that cover our planet, no single waterway holds more influence over the global economy than a narrow, 21-mile-wide channel of water separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. Every day, a silent, steady procession of the world's largest supertankers navigates this passage, a liquid pipeline carrying a fifth of the entire world's oil supply.
  
  This is the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important energy chokepoint and its most dangerous flashpoint.
  
  While it may seem like a distant geographical feature, the events in this strait have a direct impact on the price of gasoline at the pump, the cost of goods on store shelves, and the stability of the global financial system.
  
  It is a place where trillion-dollar economics, international law, and the threat of military conflict converge in a volatile, high-stakes ballet. And in today, it’s back in the news.
  
  With tensions between Israel and Iran, and now the U.S., reaching a boiling point, Iran is once again threatening to shut down the Strait, which could send shockwaves through global markets.
  
  Read on to discover what the Strait of Hormuz is, why it matters, and learn a bit about its history.
  
  What is the Strait of Hormuz?
  
  The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow sea channel that links the Persian Gulf in the west with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea in the southeast. It represents the only maritime outlet for some of the world's largest oil and gas producers. The name "Hormuz" is believed to be derived from the ancient port city of Hormuz, which was a center of commerce in the region for centuries.
  
  The strait's geography is a key factor in its strategic nature. It is bordered by Iran to the north and by Oman's Musandam Peninsula and the United Arab Emirates to the south. The Musandam Peninsula creates a jagged, fjord-like coastline on the southern edge, further constraining the navigable waters.
  
  Where is the Strait of Hormuz on a Map?
  
  On a map, the strait appears as a distinct bottleneck. At its narrowest point, it is just 21 miles (33 kilometers) wide. However, the width of the navigable shipping lanes for large tankers is even more restricted.
  
  The established Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS), a maritime route management system mandated by the International Maritime Organization, dictates that ships use two-mile-wide lanes, one for inbound and one for outbound traffic.
  
  These lanes are separated by a two-mile-wide buffer zone. Crucially, these designated shipping channels lie entirely within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, a fact that underpins the region's complex security dynamics.
  
  Strait of Hormuz
  
  Why is the Strait of Hormuz so Important?
  
  The importance of the Strait of Hormuz is difficult to overstate; it is the world's foremost energy chokepoint. The term "chokepoint" refers to a narrow channel along widely used global sea routes that is critical to energy security. The temporary or indefinite blockage of such a route can lead to substantial disruptions in global energy supplies and a sharp increase in energy costs.
  
  A staggering volume of the world's energy supply traverses this waterway. Major OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, rely on the strait to ship their crude oil and petroleum products to global markets. Qatar, one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), sends the vast majority of its LNG shipments through the strait.
  
  The primary destinations for these energy exports are the rapidly growing economies of Asia, including China, Japan, India, and South Korea. Consequently, any instability in the Strait of Hormuz sends immediate shockwaves not just through global oil markets, but directly to the industrial and economic heartlands of Asia and beyond.
  
  The lack of viable, large-scale alternatives for bypassing the strait solidifies its importance. Existing pipelines, such as the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia or the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, can only accommodate a fraction of the total oil flow. Building new pipelines is a costly and politically complex endeavor that cannot quickly replace the sheer volume capacity of sea-based tanker transport.
  
  Who Controls the Straight of Hormuz?
  
  Control over the Strait of Hormuz is a layered and contentious issue, involving international law, military power, and regional politics.
  
  Legally, the passage is governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS establishes the right of "transit passage," which allows vessels, including military warships, to pass through international straits like Hormuz without obstruction, so long as their passage is continuous and expeditious. While the United States has not ratified the treaty, it recognizes this right as a matter of customary international law. Iran, a signatory but not a ratifier of the treaty, has periodically challenged this right, arguing that it should have more control over foreign military vessels transiting the strait.
  
  Militarily, Iran is the dominant power along the northern coast. Its naval forces are split into two entities: the regular Artesh Navy and the more ideologically driven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN). The IRGCN is the primary force within the strait and employs a strategy of asymmetric warfare. This involves using a large fleet of small, fast, and heavily armed speedboats, anti-ship missiles, naval mines, and drones to counter the naval superiority of larger powers like the United States. Iran also controls several strategic islands overlooking the shipping lanes, including Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, which serve as platforms for surveillance and weapons systems.
  
  Oman, which controls the southern coast, plays a more diplomatic and neutral role. It maintains good relations with both Iran and Western nations and often acts as an interlocutor to de-escalate tensions.
  
  In response to Iranian threats and actions, the United States maintains a robust naval presence in the region, centered on its Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain. Furthermore, international coalitions have been formed to protect shipping. The International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), a U.S.-led initiative, was established in 2019 to deter attacks on commercial vessels and ensure freedom of navigation.
  
  How Much Oil and Gas Goes through the Strait Each Day?
  
  The daily flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz is immense and has remained consistently high for decades.
  
  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a daily average of approximately 21 million barrels of crude oil, condensate, and petroleum products transited the strait in recent years. This figure represents roughly 30% of total global seaborne-traded oil and about 20% of total global petroleum liquids consumption.
  
  In addition to oil, the strait is a vital conduit for liquefied natural gas (LNG). About 4 trillion cubic feet of LNG, primarily from Qatar and the UAE, passes through the strait annually. This accounts for more than a quarter of the world's total LNG trade, making the strait as critical for natural gas as it is for oil.
  
  Strait of Hormuz Alternatives
  
  The immense strategic risk associated with a single point of failure for a fifth of the world's energy supply has led Gulf nations to develop and propose a limited number of bypass routes. These alternatives, primarily overland pipelines, offer some mitigation but cannot fully replace the volume and flexibility of tanker traffic through the strait.
  
  East-West Pipeline (Petroline)
  
  The most significant alternative is Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline
  
  , also known as the Petroline. This 1,200-kilometer pipeline runs from the Abqaiq oil fields in the country's Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This allows Saudi Arabia to export its crude directly from the Red Sea, completely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The pipeline has a nameplate capacity of 5 million barrels per day, though its operational capacity can fluctuate. While a crucial strategic asset for Saudi Arabia, it does not offer a solution for other Gulf producers like Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq, or Iran.
  
  East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (left) with the UAE's Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline
  
  (Wikipedia)
  
  Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP)
  
  The United Arab Emirates operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), also known as the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline. This 360-kilometer pipeline runs from the Habshan onshore oil fields in Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, located south of the strait. With a capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day, ADCOP allows the UAE to export a significant portion of its oil production directly to the open ocean. Fujairah has also been developed into a major global oil trading and storage hub, enhancing its strategic value.
  
  Habshan–Fujairah pipeline (right) with Saudi Arabia's East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (left)
  
  (Wikipedia)
  
  Iraq Pipeline to Ceyhan (Turkish Pipeline)
  
  Iraq has historically relied on the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline, which runs from the northern Kirkuk oil fields to the port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean coast. However, this route has been plagued by persistent disruptions due to political disputes, security issues, and technical problems. Exports through this pipeline have been halted since March 2023 following an arbitration ruling, and its future remains uncertain, making it an unreliable alternative for Iraqi exports.
  
  Location of Kirkuk–Ceyhan Oil Pipeline
  
  (Wikipedia)
  
  Other Proposed and Past Alternatives
  
  Iran has also developed a pipeline, the Goreh-Jask pipeline, to transport oil to a terminal on the Gulf of Oman, thereby bypassing the strait. However, its operational capacity remains limited compared to the massive volumes exported from its main terminals inside the Persian Gulf. Other more ambitious overland routes have been proposed over the years but have been stymied by immense cost and geopolitical complexity. Together, the existing bypass pipelines can only handle a fraction, roughly a third, of the oil that typically passes through Hormuz.
  
  A Timeline of Major Incidents in the Straight of Hormuz
  
  The strait's strategic value has inevitably made it a flashpoint for military conflict and international crises.
  
  Operation Praying Mantis (1988)
  
  During the latter stages of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War, a phase known as the "Tanker War" saw both nations attacking each other's oil shipping. After the U.S. Navy frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts was severely damaged by an Iranian mine in April 1988, the U.S. launched a powerful retaliatory strike. On April 18, 1988, U.S. naval forces executed Operation Praying Mantis. In a single day of coordinated surface and air attacks, the U.S. Navy destroyed two Iranian oil platforms used for military surveillance and sank or severely damaged half of Iran's operational navy, including a frigate and several speedboats. It was the largest U.S. surface naval battle since World War II and a decisive demonstration of American military power.
  
  Downing of Iran Air Flight 655 (1988)
  
  Just a few months later, on July 3, 1988, one of the most tragic incidents in the region's history occurred. The U.S. Navy cruiser USS Vincennes, equipped with the advanced Aegis combat system, was engaged in skirmishes with Iranian gunboats in the strait. In a tense and chaotic environment, the Vincennes' crew misidentified Iran Air Flight 655, a civilian Airbus A300 on a routine flight from Bandar Abbas to Dubai, as an attacking F-14 Tomcat fighter jet. The cruiser fired two surface-to-air missiles, destroying the aircraft and killing all 290 passengers and crew on board. The U.S. expressed deep regret and described the event as a tragic accident of war, eventually paying compensation to the victims' families. Iran condemned the downing as a barbaric act and an international crime.
  
  U.S.-Iran Naval Standoffs (2008, 2011-2012)
  
  Tensions have flared repeatedly in the 21st century. In January 2008, five IRGCN speedboats aggressively approached a convoy of three U.S. Navy vessels, making threatening radio transmissions. The situation de-escalated without any shots fired.
  
  A more prolonged standoff occurred in late 2011 and early 2012 amid escalating international pressure over Iran's nuclear program. As the U.S. and European Union imposed crippling sanctions on Iran's oil exports and banking sector, Iranian officials repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz entirely. The rhetoric was met with a significant buildup of U.S. and allied naval forces in the Gulf, creating a period of heightened military alert.
  
  Seizures and Attacks on Commercial Tankers (2019-2024)
  
  The period beginning in 2019 saw a significant resurgence of tit-for-tat incidents. In May and June 2019, mysterious attacks using limpet mines damaged several international oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. and its allies blamed Iran, which denied involvement. In July 2019, after an Iranian supertanker was seized by British forces off Gibraltar on suspicion of carrying oil to Syria in violation of EU sanctions, Iran's IRGCN seized the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz, holding it for two months. This pattern has continued, with Iran seizing tankers in what appears to be retaliation for the U.S. or its partners confiscating ships carrying sanctioned Iranian oil. Notable seizures have included the Greek-managed Advantage Sweet in 2023 and the Marshall Islands-flagged St Nikolas in 2024, which was carrying Iraqi oil but was seized in connection with a long-running dispute with the United States.
  
  June 2025: Renewed Threats and Escalating Tensions
  
  June 2025: Escalating Tensions and Global Market Jitters
  
  In June 2025, the Strait of Hormuz once again became a focal point of global concern as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. On June 13, Israel launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and uranium enrichment facilities.. In response, Iran issued sharp warnings, with Esmail Kowsari, a senior Iranian parliament member and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, declaring on June 15 that closing the Strait of Hormuz was “under active consideration” as a means to safeguard national sovereignty. This marked one of the most direct threats to the strait’s security since the 2011–2012 standoffs over Iran’s nuclear program.
  
  The Iranian parliament escalated the rhetoric on June 22 following U.S. airstrikes on critical nuclear facilities, passing a non-binding resolution that urged the closure of the Strait to disrupt global energy flows. While the vote carried significant symbolic weight, the final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which has yet to act. Analysts, including those from the Atlantic Council, emphasize that a full closure remains unlikely due to Iran’s heavy reliance on the strait for its own oil exports, which account for nearly 2 million barrels per day, primarily to China. A blockade would cripple Iran’s economy, risking domestic unrest and straining ties with Beijing, which imports 1.8–5.4 million barrels daily through the strait.
  
  Global oil markets reacted swiftly to the threats. Brent crude futures surged approximately 10% in mid-June, with prices hovering near $85 per barrel. Analysts from JP Morgan and Rabobank warned that a prolonged disruption could push prices to $100–$130 per barrel, fueling inflation and threatening global economic stability. The vulnerability of Gulf exporters—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE, alongside Iran—was underscored, as their oil shipments depend entirely on this narrow passage. Adding to the unease, a mid-June collision between two oil tankers in the strait, attributed to navigational errors rather than sabotage, highlighted the waterway’s congestion and risks, especially amid reports of increased electronic signal interference in the region.
  
  Behind the scenes, diplomatic efforts intensified to avert a crisis. U.S. officials, including Senator Marco Rubio, publicly urged China to leverage its economic influence over Iran to prevent any closure, noting Beijing’s dependence on the strait for over half its oil imports. China’s foreign ministry issued cautious statements calling for “restraint by all parties,” while reportedly engaging in quiet diplomacy with Tehran. Oman, maintaining its longstanding neutrality, offered to mediate between Iran and Western powers, as it has done in past crises.
  
  The June 2025 developments underscore the Strait of Hormuz’s enduring role as a geopolitical flashpoint. While Iran’s threats have rattled markets, the economic self-harm of a closure and international pressure, particularly from China, make a blockade improbable for now. Nonetheless, the episode serves as a stark reminder of the strait’s critical importance to global energy security and the fragile balance of power in the region.
  
  Strait of Hormuz FAQs
  
  Which country controls the Strait of Hormuz?
  
  No single country controls the Strait of Hormuz. The navigable shipping lanes pass through the territorial waters of both Iran and Oman. While international law guarantees the right of transit passage, Iran's significant military presence along the northern coast and its control of strategic islands give it a powerful and influential position over the waterway.
  
  Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?
  
  The Strait of Hormuz is critically important because it is the world's most vital energy chokepoint. Approximately one-fifth of the world's daily oil consumption and over a quarter of its liquefied natural gas must pass through this narrow channel. Any disruption could severely impact global energy supplies and prices, with far-reaching consequences for the international economy.
  
  How many ships go through the Strait of Hormuz?
  
  An average of 90 to 100 vessels, the vast majority of which are large crude oil carriers and LNG tankers, transit the Strait of Hormuz every day. This equates to tens of thousands of vessel movements annually, underscoring the immense logistical challenge and strategic importance of maintaining security and freedom of navigation in this narrow and congested waterway. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-06-24
  The Oil Price Shock No One Saw Coming
  Less than two weeks ago, the U.S. was discussing a new nuclear deal with Iran, the International Energy Agency was forecasting an oil market oversupply, and commodity analysts were reiterating their expectations of an average Brent price around $60. Now,... Read more Less than two weeks ago, the U.S. was discussing a new nuclear deal with Iran, the International Energy Agency was forecasting an oil market oversupply, and commodity analysts were reiterating their expectations of an average Brent price around $60. Now, Brent is heading towards $80.
  
  And it may be just the beginning.
  
  Oil prices rose after Israel started bombing Iran, which was little surprise, and then they stopped rising as traders saw there was no direct threat of supply disruption. The wild card this time turned out to be President Trump. In a matter of days, Trump first imposed new sanctions on Iran, which made most market players think he’d stick with non-violent methods of dealmaking. Then, on Saturday, the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities—and Iran said it’s shutting the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Interestingly, the early reactions from Middle Eastern stock markets were rather optimistic, at least according to a Reuters report that came out Sunday. The report said trader behavior suggested most expected a “benign outcome” of the bombing campaign. The report also quoted traders as saying they expected a selloff today and a run on safe haven assets such as the U.S. dollar.
  
  Also on Sunday, Iran’s Press TV reported that the country’s parliament had approved the move to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the U.S. attack on the nuclear sites—for which the Interntional Atomic Energy Agency had said did not feature weapons-grade uranium but U.S. intelligence has disputed this.
  
  The threat of Iran closing off the chokepoint that handles a third of global maritime oil trade, amounting to over 20 million barrels daily, has been there forever. Until now, however, Iran had never moved to actually close it, which highlights the special nature of this latest Middle Eastern war. The final decision is not hard to predict. And this means that Brent at $80 is only the beginning.
  
  Goldman Sachs already threw its latest oil price forecast out the window, now expecting Brent at $110 per barrel in case of a Hormuz shutdown, noting this scenario could materialize if oil flows via the strait were halved for a month. ING, for its part, wrote that “an effective blocking of the Hormuz would lead to a dramatic shift in the outlook for oil, pushing the market into deep deficit”—again, days after all forecasts appeared in agreement that the market for crude oil is oversupplied, including ING’s own outlook.
  
  It appears, then, that the oil market’s balance is a fragile thing. It can so easily be tipped into a deficit—even with the U.S. Fifth Fleet stationed in Bahrain, and ready to respond to any move by Iran to close off the Strait of Hormuz, as already pointed out by commentators such as Reuters’ Ron Bousso. There have been disruptions to the flow of oil via the Strait of Hormuz before, but they have never lasted long, Bousso pointed out, adding that war-driven oil price rallies never last long.
  
  Of course, this would depend on one’s interpretation of “long”. In 2022, oil soared for months, which, at least in Europe, did not really feel like a very short time. And this time, there is also LNG to consider. Most of Qatar’s LNG flows pass via the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran mines the chokepoint, LNG prices will surge as well—whether for weeks or months, but they will surge. This is very bad news for countries that need to refill their wintertime reserve—which is most of them.
  
  Some point out OPEC’s spare capacity as a guarantee for market stability. The problem with that spare capacity is that, as ING pointed out in its Sunday note, most of it is in the Persian Gulf, which makes it unusable in case of fighting in the area, which is what is going to happen if Iran shuts off the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. Fifth Fleet responds. This, in turn, means that prices may rise and stay high for a while yet. This is inconvenient for the U.S., as suggested by reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had approached China to try and “dissuade” Iran from shutting off Hormuz, noting Iran itself was heavily dependent on oil exports via that chokepoint.
  
  However, Iran has been loading tankers like there’s no tomorrow in the past week or so. Iran, in other words, has been preparing for a certain eventuality involving a disruption to oil exports. Granted, it won’t be able to keep going for very long without oil exports, but, as all those commentators say, a Hormuz blockade would not last very long—unless it somehow does, because right now, all bets seem to be off when it comes to the Middle East. There is only one thing that is certain: the oil market is not oversupplied, and Brent is not going to average $60 this year. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-06-24
  Eni Reduces Staff at Iraqi Oilfield as Middle East Conflict Escalates
  Amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, Italian energy major Eni has reduced the number of staff at the Zubair oil and gas field in Iraq as a precautionary measure, an Eni spokesperson told Reuters on Monday. The Israel-Iran conflict that... Read more Amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, Italian energy major Eni has reduced the number of staff at the Zubair oil and gas field in Iraq as a precautionary measure, an Eni spokesperson told Reuters on Monday.
  
  The Israel-Iran conflict that began earlier this month took a major turn this weekend after the U.S. bombed three Iranian nuclear sites – at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and warned the Islamic Republic that retaliation against U.S. troops in the region or any other retaliation would be the worst mistake it will make.
  
  Iran on Monday retaliated against the U.S. strikes, claiming the American attacks expand the scope for the Iranian military to respond.
  
  The Iranian army’s chief of staff, Abdolrahim Mousavi, said the U.S. strikes have opened up the possibility of his forces taking “any action” against American troops and that Iran “will never back down”.
  
  Foreign personnel working with oil companies in Iraq had already left the country before the U.S. bombed Iran’s nuclear sites.
  
  Supply from the Middle East could become vulnerable if Iran and Israel decide to attack vital energy infrastructure in the region, analysts at RBC Capital Markets noted earlier this month, warning that energy, and oil in particular, are now “clearly in the crosshairs.”
  
  Iran’s Kharg Island—a major crude terminal and trade hub handling 90% of Iranian crude oil exports, could be targeted by Israel at some point, RBC says. Iranian proxies, for their part, could target oil facilities in neighboring Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, according to the bank. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-06-24
  Trump Orders Oil Sector to Keep Prices Low After Strikes on Iran
  President Donald Trump on Monday called on U.S. and global oil producers to keep crude prices from spiking, following coordinated airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The strikes targeted key sites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, escalating tensions... Read more President Donald Trump on Monday called on U.S. and global oil producers to keep crude prices from spiking, following coordinated airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The strikes targeted key sites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, escalating tensions in the Gulf.
  
  Trump posted on Truth Social: “EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I’M WATCHING! YOU’RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON’T DO IT!” He added: “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!”, framing energy as a national security issue amid fears of market instability.
  
  Brent crude initially jumped more than 4% to breach $81 a barrel early Monday before settling near $76.90 as traders evaluated Iran’s response and continued tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments.
  
  Despite Trump’s public appeal, there has been no major movement among U.S. producers to adjust supply. While Trump’s call echoed his first-term energy posture, most companies are focused on shareholder returns, not rapid output expansion. A Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) analyst noted that producers “base decisions on long-term economics, not presidential tweets”.
  
  The Financial Times reported that U.S. output is expected to peak this year before declining in 2026, citing reduced investment and higher capital discipline across shale basins. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, when asked for specifics, said only, “We’re on it.”
  
  Goldman Sachs analysts warned that Brent could breach $100 if Iran retaliates by disrupting Hormuz traffic, though current flows remain stable.
  
  As of 11:27 p.m. ET, Brent crude was priced at $76.24 per barrel, down 1% on the day, while WTI was trading at $73.07. All eyes now turn to Tehran’s next move, and whether U.S. producers hold the line or respond to market signals.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-06-24
  EU Commissioner Calls for Strategic Rare Earths Reserve
  The European Union needs to create a joint strategic reserve of rare earth elements to avoid supply chain disruptions and economic blackmail from China, Stephane Sejourne, European Commissioner for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy, has told German business... Read more The European Union needs to create a joint strategic reserve of rare earth elements to avoid supply chain disruptions and economic blackmail from China, Stephane Sejourne, European Commissioner for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy, has told German business daily Handelsblatt.
  
  “Nowadays, all European countries have strategic reserves for oil and gas. We should do the same for strategic raw materials,” Sejourne told the German newspaper in an interview published on Monday.
  
  The reserve would make the EU more resilient in the face of Chinese restrictions of exports of rare earths or high-performance magnets, which are key for the automotive and defense industries, the commissioner said.
  
  In April, China added seven rare earth elements and related products to its export control list, making it mandatory for exporters to obtain licenses regardless of the end customer's nationality. While some licenses have been granted, the complex and lengthy approval process has caused confusion at customs and raised alarms among European Union manufacturers.
  
  Earlier this month, the European Commission approved the first list of 13 Strategic Projects on strategic raw materials located outside of the EU. These projects include strategic raw materials essential for electric vehicle, batteries and battery storage, like lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite, as well as extraction of rare earth elements, which play a key role in producing high-performance magnets.
  
  The EU will issue further calls for projects this year, Sejourne told Handelsblatt, adding that the bloc must act as its competitors do and use preferential EU policies, state aid, and controls on foreign investments to protect itself in a potential trade war.
  
  Last month, China said it was considering easing its recently imposed export restrictions on rare earth elements for European semiconductor companies.
  
  Earlier this month, China signaled it would consider accelerating the approval of rare earths exports to the EU. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-06-24
  Oil Tankers on Edge in the Strait of Hormuz
  After U.S. airstrikes on Iran, some oil tankers did U-turns, paused, or avoided spending even a minute longer than necessary when crossing the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil flow chokepoint. Iran has hinted that it may block the Strait in... Read more After U.S. airstrikes on Iran, some oil tankers did U-turns, paused, or avoided spending even a minute longer than necessary when crossing the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil flow chokepoint. Iran has hinted that it may block the Strait in retaliation.
  
  At least two supertankers made U-turns at the Strait of Hormuz since the U.S. strikes, vessel-tracking data monitored by Reuters showed on Monday.
  
  Other tankers are waiting outside the Strait before it is absolutely necessary to enter the lane to load oil or LNG.
  
  Greece, which has a huge oil tanker fleet, has already cautioned the ship owners to rethink if they are entering the Gulf. Tankers should “reassess passage” via the Strait of Hormuz until the situation normalizes, and wait at safe ports nearby, according to a circular of the Greek shipping ministry seen by Bloomberg.
  
  The oil market’s biggest fear is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global daily oil consumption passes.
  
  The EIA estimates that 84% of the crude oil and condensate and 83% of the liquefied natural gas that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets last year.
  
  Analysts acknowledge that if oil flows are disrupted in the Strait, oil prices could easily hit $100 per barrel.
  
  Brent crude could rise all the way to $100 and more, peaking at $110 per barrel in case Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs said in a new note after the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites this weekend.
  
  The investment bank said this price could materialize if oil flows via the vital chokepoint were cut by half for a month and remained 10% lower than normal over the next 11 months. Source: Oilprice.com

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