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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
746.50
+84.00
658.00
-5.00
Jan 19
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	746.50	+84.00	658.00	-5.00	Jan 19

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
414.32	-1.81	495.87	-1.36	755.61	-4.51	Jan 23

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	373	412	-39	428	457	-29	658	684	-26	Jan 23
Singapore	386	408	-22	455	498	-43	631	677	-46	Jan 23
Fujairah	356	376	-20	445	489	-44	722	740	-18	Jan 23
Houston	340	387	-47	440	439	+1	633	676	-43	Jan 23

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Latest News
- 2026-01-23
  Oil prices rebound after Trump comments on ’armada’ moving to Iran spur supply worries
  Oil prices rebounded on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats against major Middle Eastern producer Iran, raising concerns of military action that could disrupt supplies. Brent crude futures for March rose 35 cents, or 0.55%, to $64.41... Read more Oil prices rebounded on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats against major Middle Eastern producer Iran, raising concerns of military action that could disrupt supplies.
  Brent crude futures for March rose 35 cents, or 0.55%, to $64.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 33 cents, or 0.56%, to $59.69 a barrel as of 0243 GMT.
  Both contracts slumped about 2% on Thursday. They rebounded after Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One the U.S. has an "armada" heading toward Iran but hoped he would not have to use it, as he renewed warnings to Tehran against killing protesters or restarting its nuclear program.
  Warships including an aircraft carrier and guided missile destroyers will arrive in the Middle East in the coming days, a U.S. official said. Iran is the fourth-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a major exporter to China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
  Brent and WTI are set for weekly gains of about 0.6% after prices climbed earlier in the week on Trump’s threats to invade Greenland, potentially destabilising the trans-Atlantic alliance, but dropped on Thursday as he pulled back on any military action.
  Trump stepped back after saying Denmark, which controls the Arctic island, NATO and the U.S. had reached a deal that would allow "total access" to Greenland.
  Prices also softened on Thursday following bearish government data showing stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user, climbed last week amid slowing fuel demand.
  
  U.S. Energy Information Administration data released on Thursday said crude inventories climbed by 3.6 million barrels for the week ending January 16, more than the 1.1-million-barrel rise predicted by analysts in a Reuters poll.
  This also exceeded the 3-million-barrel build that market sources said the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group reported on Wednesday.
  Both U.S. agencies released their reports a day later than usual due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-01-23
  Why Russia's Diesel Exports Are Suddenly Soaring
  Russian diesel has moved from being the main bullish factor in global middle-distillate markets in 2025 to an overwhelmingly bearish force by early 2026, reversing a year-long surge in refining margins. The European diesel crack spread rose from $16.7/bbl... Read more Russian diesel has moved from being the main bullish factor in global middle-distillate markets in 2025 to an overwhelmingly bearish force by early 2026, reversing a year-long surge in refining margins. The European diesel crack spread rose from $16.7/bbl in early January 2025 to $34.17/bbl in November as Russian supply – already structurally weakened since the start of the war – slid into acute shortage. That squeeze has now eased with the diesel crack spread averaging $21.7/bbl in January 2026. Refinery repairs, recovering runs and a rebound in diesel exports – which returned to around 900,000 b/d in December – have pushed Russian diesel back into the market, softening cracks before the onset of EU sanctions on January 21 briefly firmed them again. The renewed Russian diesel flows have reshaped trade routes again, triggering a sharp revival of Russian diesel shipments to Brazil despite earlier pullbacks, underscoring both Russia’s growing resilience to refinery attacks and the limits of sanctions pressure when discounted fuel meets persistent demand.
  
  The rise in diesel crack spreads through most of 2025 was driven in large part by a sharp contraction in Russian exports, which fell to a five-year low of 586,000 b/d in September. The tightening was shock-driven rather than gradual. It began in January with a Ukrainian drone strike on the Ryazan refinery – a 13.1 Mtpa plant accounting for about 5% of national refining capacity – and persisted through the year as repeated attacks disrupted refining. Pressure intensified in autumn, culminating in a record 14 drone strikes in November alone, including a hit on the Afipsky refinery near Krasnodar, a 9.1 Mtpa facility. In total, media reports indicate more than 20 refineries were affected in 2025, with some estimates suggesting around 20% of national capacity was offline at various points due to strikes or maintenance. Refinery runs reportedly fell to about 5 million b/d in September, prompting Russia to impose partial restrictions on diesel shipments and introduce a temporary export ban for non-producing companies in September 2025, later extended through March 2026.
  
  That tightness, however, began to unwind in December. As a consequence, diesel cracks went down steadily, reaching $19.89/bbl by mid-January, as Russian refinery runs recovered faster than expected. Russia’s diesel output averaged 1.8 million b/d in the first half of January 2026 – the highest level since January 2025 – with ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) accounting for around 1.75 million b/d. Overall refinery runs rebounded from 5 million b/d in September to about 5.5 million b/d in December. The recovery came despite widespread expectations that repairs would be prolonged, particularly given restrictions on the sale of Western equipment and materials needed to restore damaged refining units. Instead, Russian operators appeared to be capable of restoring capacity more quickly than anticipated.
  
  The rebound was visible not only in output but also in export flows. In December, the Tuapse refinery – a heavily export-oriented plant – was seriously damaged by a drone strike, yet loadings of ULSD resumed by mid-January. Kpler data show two cargoes were loaded on January 10 and January 14, heading to Turkey and Libya respectively. At the Primorsk oil terminal alone, the January loading program is set to reach 2.2 million tonnes, a 27% month-on-month increase, with volumes rising from 440,000 b/d in December to 528,000 b/d in January. This marks the highest loading level ever recorded at Primorsk, underscoring the growing importance of its Baltic Sea location, as exporters redirect additional volumes away from the Black Sea, where Ukrainian attacks on Russian tankers have become increasingly frequent. In total, Russian diesel exports went from roughly 590,000 b/d in September to around 900,000 b/d in December – a full year-on-year recovery.
  
  Rising output has also translated into growing Russian diesel stocks: a reported 3-year high of 27.6 million barrels. In this context, Russian energy authorities are actively discussing the removal of the ban on diesel exports by non-producing companies, arguing that domestic supply is now sufficient to cover internal demand even during winter.
  
  While the recovery initially weighed on margins, the diesel crack spread has since firmed again, climbing to $25.43/bbl by January 21 amid colder temperatures and seasonal demand. That rebound is likely to encourage further Russian exports, particularly to price-sensitive destinations where supply alternatives remain limited.
  
  Brazil is a clear example. Chronic shortages in domestic refining capacity leave the country heavily dependent on imported diesel, making discounted Russian barrels economically attractive. Yet Brazilian purchases were sharply curtailed in the second half of 2025 as Russian supply shrank and political risk rose. Imports from Russia fell from 247,000 b/d in March – when US President Donald Trump first signalled possible new sanctions on Russian oil if a peace deal with Ukraine failed – to just 49,000 b/d in November, when those sanctions were put into effect. US diesel emerged as the primary substitute for the lost Russian volumes in the autumn of 2025. Those curbs, however, proved temporary. In December, Brazilian imports of Russian diesel rebounded to 181,000 b/d, suggesting that domestic supply gaps, favourable pricing and growing fatigue with sustained US pressure ultimately outweighed concerns about friction with Washington. Moreover, Indian diesel exports to Brazil since November 2025 have been sourced almost exclusively from Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery – a sanctioned facility partly owned by Rosneft and running exclusively on Russian crude.
  
  Three conclusions stand out. First, Russia has shown far greater resilience to drone attacks on its refining infrastructure, with operators increasingly able to repair damage quickly. Considering that Ukraine’s long-haul strikes on refineries have tapered off, refinery utilisation is likely to remain stable, while softer post-winter diesel demand combined with steady Russian supply points to narrower diesel cracks in spring 2026. Second, as refining capacity continues to recover, Russia’s need to export crude should diminish, raising the likelihood of lower crude exports ahead. Third, Western pressure to curb purchases of Russian oil products remains structurally weak: as long as Russian diesel is discounted and demand stays firm, economic incentives continue to outweigh political risk – a reality that has repeatedly reasserted itself across global fuel markets. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-23
  Galp and Moeve Merger to Reshape Iberian Downstream
  Galp and Moeve (formerly Cepsa) announced on January 8, 2026 that they have reached a non-binding agreement to merge their downstream businesses, combining their refining and fuel retail operations into two new entities. Under the proposed structure,... Read more Galp and Moeve (formerly Cepsa) announced on January 8, 2026 that they have reached a non-binding agreement to merge their downstream businesses, combining their refining and fuel retail operations into two new entities. Under the proposed structure, refining assets will be consolidated into IndustrialCo and service stations into RetailCo. The combined refining system will total roughly 710,000 b/d in capacity, placing it among the largest downstream players in Southern Europe, with Moeve’s shareholders Mubadala and Carlyle controlling 80% of IndustrialCo and Galp retaining a 20% minority stake. The merged retail network (50:50) will span about 3,500 service stations across Spain and Portugal, materially enhancing scale and integration in a highly competitive market.
  
  Neither company is bringing its upstream assets into the merger. Galp’s upstream oil and gas business (centred on offshore deepwater Brazil and Namibia) is excluded from the deal and will remain outside IndustrialCo. Moeve has divested most of its upstream assets following series of sales: in 2023 it sold its UAE equity stakes to TotalEnergies and sold its Colombian and Peruvian upstream assets to PetroTal in 2024. The Spanish company still clings to its Algerian gas assets, mostly due to its strategic proximity and importance to Spain’s energy security.
  
  This way, the merged system will bring together three core refineries with complementary roles. In Spain, San Roque near Gibraltar (around 250,000 b/d) and La Rábida in Huelva (around 240,000 b/d) together account for close to 30% of national distillation capacity. In Portugal, Sines (around 225,000 b/d) remains the country’s sole operating refinery following the closure of the Porto refinery in 2021. Collectively, the system is oriented toward medium and light crude slates sourced primarily from the US, Brazil, Nigeria and North Africa, favouring medium-sweet, low-sulphur blends.
  
  From a configuration standpoint, the system is firmly fuels-oriented. San Roque is a medium-complexity, FCC-based refinery optimised for gasoline and bunkering fuels, reflecting its proximity to the Algeciras bunkering hub and its access to diversified crude imports at relatively low operating cost. La Rábida and Sines are more conversion-intensive, with hydrocracking capacity that reduces fuel-oil exposure and lifts middle-distillate yields, particularly diesel. Across the system, diesel/gasoil account for roughly 40% of output, gasoline around 20%, and jet fuel typically 10–15%. This configuration supports compliance with European fuel standards but leaves the system structurally exposed to transportation fuel demand trends.
  
  Those demand trends, however, have evolved more slowly than widely anticipated. Contrary to expectations of a steady contraction, gasoline demand across the Iberian Peninsula has not been declining. In Spain, gasoline consumption has increased consistently, peaking around 187,000 b/d in July 2025, the highest seasonal level in the past 5 years. Based on data from January-November 2025, this year’s annual rate of growth in Spanish gasoline demand jumped to 8%. Portugal shows a similar pattern, with summer gasoline demand peaking at roughly 37,000 b/d in August 2025, also a five-year high and marking the same 8% total annual growth rate as in Spain.
  
  Diesel demand, while no longer growing, has remained broadly stable in both countries, reflecting the legacy dominance of diesel engines in the passenger and commercial fleet. As a result, the anticipated collapse in clean-product demand has not yet materialised.
  
  The structure of new vehicle sales helps explain this resilience. By mid-2025, hybrids accounted for about 40% of new car registrations in Spain, while petrol-only vehicles represented roughly 30%. Fully electric vehicles remained a comparatively small segment at around 8% of new sales, despite policy support and infrastructure subsidies. In Portugal, hybrids accounted for 60% of new car sales. Because the overwhelming majority of hybrids on the market are petrol-powered, the rapid penetration of hybrids has, in practice, supported gasoline consumption rather than displaced it. Additionally, the region boasts its position as one of the key tourism centres in Europe, witha record 97 million visits to Spain and 33 million visits to Portugal in 2025 (a 3.5-4% rise year-on-year). While long-term policy targets (including the European Union’s now-postponed 2035 fossil-powered car ban) clearly point toward eventual demand decline, the current car fleet of Iberian drivers, as well as tourism growth dynamics, suggest that petrol demand is unlikely to fall sharply in the near to medium term, even as diesel remains flat.
  
  These domestic demand trends have direct implications for refining balances and exports. Rising gasoline consumption and stable diesel demand in the south of the Iberian peninsula have absorbed a larger share of the domestic output of Moeve, apparently reducing the volume of clean products available for export. In that context, the decline in Moeve’s clean-product exports from Spain (averaging around 65,000 b/d, roughly 32% below 2021 levels) most likely reflects stronger domestic absorption.
  
  That decline has coincided with a far more competitive export environment. New capacity in the Middle East and India has increased pressure on Mediterranean trade routes, while the commissioning of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery in 2024 has begun reshaping West African flows by reducing reliance on European supply. Indian refineries, including sanctioned Vadinar, have demonstrated an ability to place clean products into African markets at discounted prices, particularly where buyers are less sensitive to regulatory provenance. In this environment, clean product exports are becoming a contested, margin-sensitive outlet rather than a reliable direction for sales of extra output for Iberian refiners.
  
  Retail integration sits at the core of the merger’s industrial logic. Combined, Galp and Moeve would control around 3,100 service stations across the Iberian Peninsula, compared with roughly 3,700 operated by their immediate competitor, Repsol. While still lagging behind the market leader, the merged network materially strengthens captive demand, improves product placement synergies, and partially insulates refining margins from export volatility. In a market where refining profitability is increasingly cyclical and policy-constrained, downstream marketing offers a more stable earnings profile.
  
  Beyond scale, the longer-term rationale of the merger lies as a survival strategy in an increasingly carbon-constrained market. Across Europe, stricter climate policy targets are becoming a central determinant of downstream strategy, pressing refiners to adapt even if near-term fuel demand remains resilient. Galp is developing an integrated biofuels project at Sines through its joint venture with Mitsui (Japan), targeting around 250,000 t/y of renewable diesel (HVO) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by the mid-2020s, supported by renewable hydrogen supply and designed to reposition the refinery as a hybrid fuel industrial site. Moeve is pursuing a larger-scale transition centred on La Rábida, where a second-generation biofuels plant (currently under construction) is expected to produce around 500,000 t/y of HVO and SAF from waste feedstocks, complemented by plans to deploy up to 2 GW of green hydrogen electrolysis across its refining system over the coming decade.
  
  Taken together, the merger creates a downstream platform with greater scale, deeper retail integration, and a clearer pathway through Europe’s energy transition. For Galp, the structure enables capital flows to be focused on higher-return upstream growth in Brazil and Namibia, while retaining exposure to downstream cash flows. For Moeve, the transaction consolidates control over a more diversified Iberian downstream system and provides access to a stable crude supply through Galp’s overseas portfolio. The move also represents a strategic challenge to Repsol, the regional leader in refining and retail, which announced plans for a $19 billion upstream reverse merger in November 2025 (potentially with US shale specialist APA) but has yet to articulate a comparable downstream strategy. More mergers may follow on the regional market: in the European downstream landscape shaped as much by regulation as by capital, the scale and profitability of energy transition will be the new currency of competitiveness. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-23
  MABUX: Global bunker indices to shift into downward movement on Jan. 23.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued a moderate upward trend on Jan. 22 for the second consecutive day: 380 HSFO: USD/MT 416.13 (+0.99) VLSFO: USD/MT 497.23 (+2.65) MGO:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued a moderate upward trend on Jan. 22 for the second consecutive day:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT 416.13 (+0.99)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 497.23 (+2.65)
  MGO: USD/MT 760.12 (+6.66)
  
  As of Jan. 22, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — tracking the correlation between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP) – continued to indicate underpricing across all bunker fuel grades in the key global hubs of Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: The discount widened by $1 in Rotterdam, declined by $5 in Singapore and by $3 in Fujairah, while increasing by $1 in Houston.
  
  • VLSFO segment: The underpricing margin expanded further by $3 in Rotterdam, but narrowed by $3 in Singapore, $6 in Fujairah, and $2 in Houston. Houston’s MDI continued to signal a near-100% correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  • MGO LS segment: The underpricing ratio increased sharply across all hubs: by $14 in Rotterdam, $10 in Singapore, $19 in Fujairah, and $21 in Houston.
  
  We expect the Global bunker market to enter a slight downward corrective phase on Jan. 22: 380 HSFO – minus 3-5 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 3-6 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 5-10 USD/MT.
  
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-01-23
  EIA Confirms Crude Oil Inventory Builds in US
  Crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 3.6 million barrels during the week ending January 21, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Thursday. The increase brings commercial stockpiles... Read more Crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 3.6 million barrels during the week ending January 21, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Thursday. The increase brings commercial stockpiles to 426 million barrels according to government data, which is still 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.
  
  The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which suggested that crude oil inventories grew by 3.04 million barrels.
  
  Crude prices were trading down on Thursday morning as risk premium in global oil markets made a hasty retreat after US President Donald Trump eased off his threats over Greenland. At 8:23 a.m. in New York, Brent was trading at $65.15 per barrel—down $1.24 (-1.90%) on the day and down roughly $0.60 per barrel week over week. WTI was also trading down, by $1.14 per barrel (-1.88%) in early trade.
  
  For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories had increased by 6 million barrels after gaining 9 million barrels in the week prior. The most recent figures showed that average daily gasoline production decreased to 8.8 million barrels. For middle distillates, inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels, with production decreasing by 210,000 barrels daily to an average of 5.1 million barrels daily.
  
  Total products supplied—a proxy for U.S. oil demand—slipped to 19.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 1.5% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.2 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, while the distillate four-week average supplied averaged 3.5 million barrels—down 1.1 percent year over year. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-23
  Trump Renews Push for Greenland but Rules Out Use of Force
  US President Donald Trump has ruled out military action to take control of Greenland while also saying he wants to hold more talks on the United States acquiring the island, which he described as “our territory” during a keynote speech at the World Economic... Read more US President Donald Trump has ruled out military action to take control of Greenland while also saying he wants to hold more talks on the United States acquiring the island, which he described as “our territory” during a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 21.
  
  Hours after his speech, Trump also walked back a plan to impose tariffs on some European countries for opposing his Greenland policy.
  
  In Trump's highly anticipated speech on an issue that has caused acute alarm in other NATO countries, Trump said that US ownership of Greenland was a matter for both US and international security and that only Washington had the power to defend it against threats by other countries.
  
  Trump did not name the countries but has, in recent comments, spoken of a Russian and Chinese threat to Greenland -- an autonomous territory belonging to NATO-member Denmark.
  
  No Military Action
  
  "I'm seeking immediate negotiations to once again discuss the acquisition of Greenland by the United States," Trump said.
  
  “I don't have to use force. I don't want to use force. I won't use force,” he added, reversing earlier comments in which he had not ruled it out.
  
  In early reaction to Trump’s comments, Danish Foreign Minister ‍Lars ‍Lokke Rasmussen said his country was open to talks.
  
  "What is quite clear after this speech is that the president's ambition remains intact," he said, also noting that “what the president said about the military” was “positive.”
  
  But Trump made it clear that his aim of taking control of Greenland remained firmly in place and appeared to link the issue to Washington’s commitment to NATO.
  
  “We want a piece of ice for world protection, and they won't give it. We'd never ask for anything else…So they have a choice. You can say ‘yes’, and we will be very appreciative. Or you can say ‘no’, and we will remember. A strong and secure America means a strong NATO,” he said.
  
  Other European leaders have vocally supported Denmark’s position in recent days, and diplomats from European Union countries told RFE/RL that Trump’s speech would not allay concerns in capitals across the continent.
  
  "I don’t know if this quote is an implicit threat, but he said that NATO will be stronger if Greenland belongs to the US, and there is nothing Denmark or NATO can do...I think he gave the topic quite a bit of time," said an ambassador from one EU nation, who spoke to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity.
  
  Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) in Washington, told RFE/RL “it will be reasonably construed by many people as some form of a threat.”
  
  “I will be surprised if Trump lets this go. I think he's going to stay on Greenland like a dog on the bone. At least for now, he appears to have taken the military option off the table,” he added.
  
  Other EU diplomats told RFE/RL that Trump’s Davos speech “changed nothing” and was “nothing new.”
  
  Tariff Plan Scrapped
  
  Trump has also sought to apply pressure via nonmilitary means, announcing on January 17 that he would impose extra tariffs on eight European countries if they continued to oppose US ownership of Greenland. As Trump was speaking in Davos, the European Parliament announced it was freezing work on approval of the US-EU trade deal agreed in July.
  
  But, hours after finishing his speech in Davos, Trump posted a statement online saying the tariffs would not be imposed based on a deal he had struck with NATO chief Mark Rutte.
  
  "This solution, if consummated, will be a great one for the United States of America, and all NATO nations," he wrote.
  
  In his Davos speech, Trump reiterated an earlier point that, although it already had a military base in Greenland, it needed control of the island for psychological reasons -- and that a lease or other arrangement was not enough.
  
  “Who the hell wants to defend a license agreement?” he asked. Trump supporters have developed this point in recent days, suggesting major military investments are needed on Greenland. Trump mentioned it in his speech as a base for the planned Golden Dome missile defense system.
  
  “If we’re going to spend a bunch of money…we need to have the legal control and the legal protections that justify building the place up and putting our people on the ground,” said Senator Lindsey Graham on January 8.
  
  “The United States has particular concern about the ultimate security status of an independent Greenland,” Alexander Gray, chief executive officer of American Global Strategies LLC, an international strategic advisory firm, told RFE/RL.
  
  “An independent Greenland would likely follow the path of other lightly populated, developing states and quickly have its sovereignty compromised by China and Russia, directly threatening US security interests,” added Gray, who served on the National Security Council (NSC) during Trump’s first term in the White House.
  
  A Distraction From Ukraine?
  
  As Washington has increased the pressure, Western leaders have responded that it is threatening to cause massive harm to NATO itself. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned at Davos on January 20 of a "rupture" to the US-led international system.
  
  French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested the focus on Greenland risks undermining cooperation on countries such as Iran and Syria. Other NATO leaders have warned it is diverting attention from Ukraine.
  
  “The situation with respect to Greenland is absolutely distracting time, attention, and resources from Ukraine. I mean, we have European allies talking about deploying forces to Greenland…I'd rather you send those to Eastern Europe,” said the FDD’s Bowman.
  
  But another analyst, Daniel Hegedus from the German Marshall Fund think tank, said Ukraine may actually stand to benefit.
  
  “This lack of attention does less harm for Ukraine than the intense attention and pushing the leadership of Ukraine into the direction of a very seriously unfavorable peace settlement or cease-fire with Russia,” he told RFE/RL.
  
  Trump mentioned Ukraine briefly in his speech, before returning to the subject of stalled US-led peace efforts during a question-and-answer session afterwards.
  
  “What happens is, oftentimes we’ll have a deal with Russia, Russia’s set, and [Ukrainian] President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not do it. You saw that when he was in the Oval Office. I was not happy. And then, we’ll have President Zelenskyy wants to make a deal and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin doesn’t want to make a deal,” Trump said.
  
  It emerged later that, before leaving Davos on January 22 to return to Washington, Trump will meet Zelenskyy. Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, meanwhile, would head for Moscow for talks with Putin the same day.
  
  Also on January 22, Trump is set to formally announce the first charter of the Board of Peace, a body for resolving international conflicts with a $1 billion price tag for permanent membership.
  
  Invitations to join have been sent to both Moscow and Kyiv. It was not immediately clear if either country would join, although Putin-ally Belarus has said it will take part in the project.
  
  China has declined its invitation, while Israel, Hungary, and Azerbaijan are among those signing up so far. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-23
  Japan’s Largest Nuclear Plant Hit by New Halt After Brief Restart
  Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings said on Wednesday it has halted operations at a reactor at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant just one day after restarting the unit, in a move that comes as Japan continues efforts to bring nuclear capacity... Read more Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings said on Wednesday it has halted operations at a reactor at the Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant just one day after restarting the unit, in a move that comes as Japan continues efforts to bring nuclear capacity back online more than a decade after Fukushima, Reuters reported.
  
  The operator stopped the reactor after detecting an equipment issue during post-restart checks, marking an immediate setback at the world’s largest nuclear power station by capacity, according to Reuters.
  
  The halt follows Tuesday’s restart of Unit 7, which had been offline since the 2011 Fukushima disaster and was widely seen as a critical step in restoring nuclear generation in Japan’s power mix.
  
  Kashiwazaki Kariwa has a combined capacity of about 8.2 gigawatts across seven reactors and is central to government efforts to reduce fuel import costs and stabilize electricity supply amid volatile global energy markets.
  
  TEPCO said the reactor was safely shut down after an alarm was triggered in auxiliary systems, with no radiation release and no impact on surrounding communities. The company added that it is investigating the cause and will determine when the unit can resume operations.
  
  The halt comes after Kashiwazaki Kariwa spent years offline over security violations, prolonged regulatory reviews, and resistance from local authorities, issues that have repeatedly delayed the restart of Japan’s largest nuclear plant despite extensive safety retrofits and inspections carried out since the Fukushima disaster.
  
  Japan’s government and utilities have been pushing to bring nuclear capacity back online to curb reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal imports, particularly after energy costs surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Kashiwazaki Kariwa’s restart was expected to play an outsized role in easing supply constraints in the Tokyo metropolitan area and lowering wholesale power prices. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-23
  U.S. Reopens Venezuela’s Oil Spigot, but Refuses to Guarantee Security
  U.S. officials told oil executives on Wednesday that Washington will not provide security guarantees for companies operating in Venezuela, even as the Trump administration encourages the industry to re-engage with the country’s oil sector. According... Read more U.S. officials told oil executives on Wednesday that Washington will not provide security guarantees for companies operating in Venezuela, even as the Trump administration encourages the industry to re-engage with the country’s oil sector.
  
  According to people familiar with the discussions, senior administration officials said companies would be expected to manage their own physical and political risk if they choose to invest, signaling limits to U.S. involvement as Venezuelan crude re-enters global markets.
  
  “We are not going to get involved in providing on the ground security for people in Venezuela,” U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said during an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Oil and gas companies operate all around the world in all different settings, they’re well versed in those challenges.”
  
  Years of expropriations, contract rewrites, payment arrears, and operational breakdowns have made boards reluctant to deploy long-cycle capital without firm legal and security assurances. U.S. oil companies have privately warned that without enforceable contracts, clearer fiscal terms, and some form of risk backstop, investment will remain limited, capping how quickly Venezuelan output can recover even under a more permissive U.S. policy framework.
  
  Earlier this month, American Petroleum Institute (API) President and CEO Mike Sommers publicly said that policy changes, security, and investment protections were among the prerequisites the industry wants in place before investing significantly in Venezuela’s oil sector.
  
  In the near term, Venezuelan barrels are returning to the market not through upstream investment but through discounted trade flows. U.S. refiners including Valero and Phillips 66 have snapped up Venezuelan crude via trader Vitol, with cargoes priced roughly $8.50 to $9.50 per barrel below Brent. For Gulf Coast refiners configured to run heavy sour grades, the economics are attractive.
  
  Before sanctions in 2019, the region processed hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, and refiners have been eager to partially replace heavier imports lost elsewhere. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-23
  Trump Could Offer Deals to U.S. States to Store Nuclear Waste
  The Trump Administration plans to offer U.S. states incentives for building nuclear reactors in exchange for agreeing to store nuclear waste, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. However, a spokesperson for the U.S. Energy Department... Read more The Trump Administration plans to offer U.S. states incentives for building nuclear reactors in exchange for agreeing to store nuclear waste, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday.
  
  However, a spokesperson for the U.S. Energy Department told Reuters that the story was “false” and that “no decisions have been made at this time,” after POLITICO first reported on the plan late on Wednesday.
  
  The POLITICO report said that the Energy Department could invite interest from U.S. states as early as this week.
  
  Handling nuclear waste is a politically and environmentally sensitive issue, and the U.S. may have much more of that in the coming years as it the Trump Administration plans to facilitate the expansion of U.S. nuclear energy capacity from about 100 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050.
  
  The U.S. Administration has bet big on nuclear power, alongside gas, to meet the expected surge in America’s electricity demand driven by AI, data centers, and the onshoring of manufacturing.
  
  New nuclear plants could be ready to provide baseload capacity from 2030 or even 2035 onwards, due to long lead times to permit and construction, according to Goldman Sachs.
  
  The Administration is laying the foundations for a nuclear renaissance.
  
  Earlier this month, the Energy Department announced a $2.7 billion investment to strengthen domestic enrichment, in support of President Trump’s commitment to expand U.S. capacity for low-enriched uranium (LEU) and jumpstart new supply chains and innovations for high-assay low-enriched uranium.
  
  Last month, the Energy Department awarded $800 million to TVA and Holtec to advance the deployment of U.S. small modular reactors.
  
  In November, DOE extended a $1-billion loan to help Constellation Energy restart the Three Mile Island Unit 1 nuclear reactor to add baseload power to the grid and help the AI advancement in the United States.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-01-23
  Saudi Aramco Dismisses Oil Glut Narrative as ‘Seriously Exaggerated’
  Forecasts of a massive oil glut are seriously exaggerated as demand keeps rising and global stocks are below the five-year average, according to Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin ?Nasser. “Oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated,”... Read more Forecasts of a massive oil glut are seriously exaggerated as demand keeps rising and global stocks are below the five-year average, according to Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin ?Nasser.
  
  “Oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated,” Nasser said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, as carried by Reuters.
  
  Global oil stocks are low, while the amassed barrels in floating storage on tankers are mostly sanctioned supplies, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm and top crude exporter said.
  
  Moreover, spare capacity has dwindled over the past year, also limiting potential efforts to boost output in case of major supply disruptions, according to Nasser.
  
  “It (spare capacity) is ‌at 2.5% and we need a minimum of 3%. If OPEC+ further unwinds cuts, spare capacity will ‌fall even further ?and we will need to watch this very carefully,” Aramco’s top executive said.
  
  The market is oversupplied, analysts say, as reflected in only brief spikes in oil prices in recent weeks driven the geopolitical developments.
  
  Most investment banks and the EIA forecast that average oil prices will be below $60 per barrel in 2026 due to an emerging and persistent market oversupply, especially during the first half of the year.
  
  But OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, insists that the market would be balanced as demand growth is robust and will remain such in 2027, too.
  
  The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week raised its oil demand growth estimate and expects growth at 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up by 70,000 bpd from last month’s assessment.
  
  The upgrade reflects a recovery in feedstock demand in the petrochemicals industry, on top of expectations of normalized economic conditions after the unpredictable and chaotic tariff policy of the Trump Administration last year.
  
  But the market continues to be oversupplied, the Paris-based agency noted.
  
  “Indeed, benchmark crude oil prices remain $16/bbl lower than a year ago, reflecting the large global supply surplus that built up over the past 12 months, in line with our forecasts,” the IEA said. Source: Oilprice.com

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