Mabux: Global Bunker Prices

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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 041.00
+47.00
1 027.00
-16.00
Jun 9
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 041.00	+47.00	1 027.00	-16.00	Jun 9

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
685.50	+1.92	842.75	+4.08	1 246.26	+1.08	Jun 11

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	584	655	-71	670	725	-55	1 027	1 185	-158	Jun 11
Singapore	605	683	-78	753	811	-58	1 105	1 178	-73	Jun 11
Fujairah	655	628	+27	1 215	771	+444	1 510	1 241	+269	Jun 11
Houston	648	670	-22	735	777	-42	1 057	1 152	-95	Jun 11

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Digital Bunker Prices
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Analytical Section
- Daily and Weekly Bunker analyses and Future Curves
- World and regional Bunker indices
- Bunker Price Forecast for 40+ ports
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MABUX for Industry
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Latest News
- 2026-06-11
  Egypt explores alternative fuel bunkering at five ports
  Egyptian authorities are exploring the potential for bunkering low- and zero-emission fuel at the country's ports as part of the IMO's GreenVoyage2050 programme. Authorities assessed the feasibility of developing low- and zero-emission fuel production,... Read more Egyptian authorities are exploring the potential for bunkering low- and zero-emission fuel at the country's ports as part of the IMO's GreenVoyage2050 programme.
  
  Authorities assessed the feasibility of developing low- and zero-emission fuel production, storage, and bunkering infrastructure at the ports of Ain Sokhna, Alexandria, Damietta, Dekheila and East Port Said, as part of the initiative.
  
  The assessment reviewed existing facilities, planned expansions and the operational, safety and regulatory measures needed to support alternative fuel production and bunkering, in accordance with GreenVoyage2050.
  
  The findings will be included in a port readiness assessment under Egypt's national Alternative Fuel Roadmap.
  
  “By understanding the strengths and development needs of each port, we can better position Egypt to attract investment, create new economic opportunities and strengthen our competitiveness as a maritime and logistics hub,” said Rehab Abou El Fadl, maritime researcher at the Egypt’s Ministry of Transport said. Source: ENGIИE
- 2026-06-11
  New European partnership will focus on vessel retrofit technologies
  The FIT-HORIZONS project, supported by nearly €4 million in EU funding, brings together 19 researchers, universities, software developers, and technology providers from across Europe to accelerate the uptake of vessel retrofit solutions using advanced... Read more
- 2026-06-11
  Royal Caribbean takes delivery of dual-fuel LNG Legend of the Seas
  Royal Caribbean has welcomed its third LNG dual-fuel Icon Class ship, Legend of the Seas. In a statement issued today (11 June), the cruise group confirmed that the vessel, which was built at the Meyer Turku shipyard in Turku, Finland, is ‘now ready... Read more
- 2026-06-11
  Sea Cargo Charter signatories’ alignment with IMO climate goals has ‘stabilised’, but sustained progress will be ‘difficult’ wit
  The newly-released Sea Cargo Charter Annual Disclosure Report has indicated that the 32 charterers, shipowners, and operators supporting the initiative are on average 11.6% behind the IMO’s minimum trajectory for climate goals, which was a slight improvement... Read more
- 2026-06-11
  New BIMCO time charter clause provides ‘clear framework’ for the safe use of biofuel
  BIMCO has adopted a Biofuel Clause for Time Charter Parties to address legal and operational challenges associated with fuel quality, engine compatibility and liability, and the respective obligations of owners and charterers. ‘The Biofuel Clause for... Read more
- 2026-06-11
  Rotterdam study identifies challenges for port calls by nuclear-powered merchant ships
  A new study, carried out through a joint development project involving Lloyd’s Register, the Port of Rotterdam Authority, CORE POWER and A.P. Moller – Maersk, finds that the key barriers to nuclear ship port calls are not technical but relate to regulatory... Read more
- 2026-06-11
  MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 24, 2026.
  During the week, the global bunker market maintained a downward trajectory amid a temporary stabilization of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which eased concerns over potential supply disruptions. The 380 HSFO index declined by USD 29.84,... Read more During the week, the global bunker market maintained a downward trajectory amid a temporary stabilization of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which eased concerns over potential supply disruptions. The 380 HSFO index declined by USD 29.84, falling from USD 725.22/MT last week to USD 695.38/MT and dropping below the psychological USD 700 threshold. The VLSFO index also moved lower, decreasing by USD 23.30 from USD 875.61/MT to USD 852.31/MT. The MGO LS index recorded the largest loss among the main bunker grades, falling by USD 36.78 from USD 1,312.77/MT last week to USD 1,275.99/MT. At the time of writing, bearish sentiment continued to dominate the market, with bunker prices extending their decline at a moderate pace.
  
  The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — continued its moderate upward movement, increasing by USD 6.54 from USD 150.39 last week to USD 156.93. The index surpassed the USD 150.00 level and remained comfortably above the psychological USD 100.00 threshold, which is generally regarded as the SS Breakeven point. The weekly average of the Global SS Spread also strengthened, rising by USD 11.66. In Rotterdam, however, the SS Spread moved in the opposite direction, declining by USD 12.00 from USD 97.00 last week to USD 85.00. The index remained below the USD 100.00 mark, while its weekly average decreased by USD 5.83. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread widened significantly by USD 40.00, increasing from USD 125.00 last week to USD 165.00 and exceeding the USD 150.00 level. At the same time, the port’s weekly average SS Spread edged lower by USD 7.17. Overall, the SS Spread continues to lack a clear directional trend, with regional indices moving in opposite directions. Nevertheless, spread values above USD 100.00 continue to indicate stronger economic incentives for scrubber-equipped vessels consuming 380 HSFO compared to ships operating on conventional VLSFO. We expect SS Spread dynamics to remain volatile and mixed next week, as market participants continue to assess geopolitical developments and the prospects for a sustainable settlement in the Middle East. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
  
  At the end of the week, the ECA Spread (ES) — the price differential between ULSFO and MGO LS — in Istanbul narrowed by USD 25.00, declining from USD 75.00 last week to USD 50.00. During the reporting period, however, the index briefly reached the USD 100.00 level, while its weekly average increased by USD 29.17. The Venice ECA Spread was not calculated due to the absence of regular market quotations. Overall, the ECA Spread continues to demonstrate mixed dynamics, with no clear directional trend emerging. Index values have yet to establish themselves above the psychological USD 100.00 threshold, indicating a still-limited premium of MGO LS over ULSFO in ECA-compliant operations. Given the elevated volatility across the global bunker market, we expect the ECA Spread to remain subject to multidirectional fluctuations next week, driven by ongoing uncertainty in energy markets and geopolitical developments. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
  
  Europe’s regasification capacity jumped 32% between 2022 and 2025 to roughly 270 BCM per year, propelled by rapid FSRU deployments in Germany and expansions in Poland and the Netherlands. Germany alone commissioned 44.8 BCM of import capacity across Wilhelmshaven, Brunsbüttel, Lubmin, and Stade within 24 months. Poland’s Gdańsk FSRU and Świnoujście upgrade now provide 14.4 BCM combined, giving Warsaw surplus volumes for regional exports. Lithuania’s Klaipėda terminal underscores the rise of small-scale reloads, posting 1,834 truck loadings in 2025. Forecast additions could lift capacity to 405 BCM by 2030, implying significant over-build if demand trends hold, so asset owners increasingly seek long-term offtake partners to mitigate utilization risk.
  
  European underground gas storage levels continued to increase at a moderate pace. As of June 8, storage facilities were filled to 42.79% of total capacity, up 2.03 percentage points from the previous week. However, inventories remained 18.67 percentage points below the year-end level of 61.46% and continued to lag behind the seasonal average of 50%, highlighting the slower pace of stock replenishment compared to historical norms. The European TTF gas benchmark maintained its upward trajectory during Week 24. The index increased by €1.137/MWh, rising from €47.607/MWh last week to €48.744/MWh, reflecting ongoing market sensitivity to supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical developments.
  
  The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) recorded a sharp increase this week, rising by USD 90.00/MT to USD 1,189/MT, compared to USD 1,099/MT the previous week. As a result, the price spread between LNG and conventional marine fuel shifted in favor of conventional fuel for the first time since March 25, 2026. On June 8, MGO LS was assessed at USD 1,184/MT in Sines, placing LNG at a USD 5/MT premium to MGO LS. By comparison, LNG had maintained a USD 32/MT price advantage over conventional fuel one week earlier. More detailed information is available in the "LNG Bunkering" section at mabux.com.
  
  At the end of Week 24, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — continued to reflect mixed pricing dynamics across the world’s four major bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
  
  In the 380 HSFO segment, three ports were assessed as undervalued. Houston returned to the undervalued zone, joining Rotterdam and Singapore. Average weekly discount levels increased by 6 points in Rotterdam and 27 points in Houston, while declining by 7 points in Singapore. Fujairah remained the sole overvalued port, with its overvaluation level rising by 1 point during the week.
  
  In the VLSFO segment, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston also remained undervalued. Average MDI levels increased by 11 points in Rotterdam and 29 points in Houston but edged down by 1 point in Singapore. Fujairah continued to be the only overvalued port in this segment, with its overvaluation level surging by 251 points and remaining significantly above the USD 100.00 threshold.
  
  In the MGO LS segment, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston retained their undervalued status. MDI levels increased by 16 points in Rotterdam but declined by 49 points in Singapore and by 2 points in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port, with its overvaluation level increasing by a further 12 points. The MDI values for both Rotterdam and Fujairah continued to remain consistently above the USD 100.00 mark.
  
  Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports remained largely unchanged during the week, with Houston’s return to the undervalued zone in the 380 HSFO segment representing the only notable shift. The prevailing trend in the DBP assessment remains mixed; however, undervalued bunker prices continue to dominate across the major global hubs amid persistently elevated market volatility.
  
  More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section of mabux.com.
  
  According to DNV, 36 new orders for alternative-fuelled vessels were placed in May, only marginally below the 38 orders recorded in April. The ordering activity remained heavily concentrated in the LPG/ethane carrier segment, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of all contracts signed during the month (26 vessels). In addition, owners placed orders for eight LNG-fuelled vessels, including six container ships and two car carriers, while two ethanol-fuelled bulk carriers were also contracted. During the first five months of 2026, total orders for alternative-fuelled vessels reached 119 units. LNG-fuelled vessels continue to dominate the orderbook with 60 contracts, representing more than half of all alternative-fuelled orders. The container segment accounted for the majority of LNG-related activity (42 vessels), followed by car carriers (12 vessels). LPG/ethane-fuelled vessels ranked second with 50 orders, while adoption of other alternative fuel technologies remained limited, including methanol/ethanol (4 vessels), ammonia (4 vessels), and hydrogen (1 vessel). DNV further noted that, by the end of May, the share of alternative-fuelled vessels in total contracted tonnage was noticeably lower than during the corresponding period of 2025. Although the container sector continues to lead alternative-fuel adoption, market dynamics are gradually evolving. While ordering activity remains robust, demand has increasingly shifted toward smaller container vessels, whereas orders for very large container ships—historically the segment with the highest propensity to adopt alternative fuels—have become less frequent. At the same time, DNV observed growing interest in alternative-fuel solutions within the tanker and bulker sectors, indicating a broader diversification of decarbonization efforts across vessel categories.
  
  Persistently high volatility across the global bunker market, combined with ongoing uncertainty surrounding the prospects for a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East, continues to hinder the formation of a stable pricing trend in the bunker sector. Against this backdrop, we expect mixed bunker fuel price dynamics to remain the prevailing market pattern next week, with prices likely to continue fluctuating in response to geopolitical developments and changes in energy market sentiment.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-06-11
  Oil rises more than $1 as escalation in US-Iran strikes unnerve traders
  Oil prices jumped on Thursday as Tehran declared the critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, closed after the U.S. launched additional strikes against Iran and as President Donald Trump vowed even more attacks if no peace deal is secured. Brent... Read more Oil prices jumped on Thursday as Tehran declared the critical energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, closed after the U.S. launched additional strikes against Iran and as President Donald Trump vowed even more attacks if no peace deal is secured.
  
  Brent futures rose $1.48, or 1.59%, to $94.58 a barrel as of 0243 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.71, or 1.90%, to $91.74. U.S. crude futures gained more than $3 earlier in the session.
  
  Iran’s top joint military command announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, including oil tankers and commercial ships, saying any vessel attempting passage will be shot at.
  
  "It once again suggests a deal is still some way off and that energy flows from the Persian Gulf will remain heavily constrained," said ING analysts in a note to clients.
  
  The renewed escalation in fighting prompted oil prices to rally in early morning trading, they said.
  
  On Wednesday, the U.S. military said on X that commercial ships continue to transit in and out of the strait.
  
  It also said no U.S. warships have been struck in the strait, after Iran’s state media reported U.S. ships near the waterway were targeted by missiles and drones.
  
  U.S. forces began launching additional strikes against multiple targets in Iran at 5:15 p.m. EDT (21:15 GMT), the latest in an escalating exchange of attacks that threaten to reignite a full-scale war, which was paused in early April when the two sides agreed to a fragile ceasefire.
  
  Trump told Fox News reporter Trey Yingst on Wednesday evening that the strikes would stop shortly but that he would "bomb the shit out of them" if Iran’s leaders did not sign an agreement with the U.S. immediately.
  
  Iran’s months-long blockade of the strait, which normally carries a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, has kept oil prices elevated.
  
  Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million barrels in the week ended June 5, the EIA said on Wednesday, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 4 million-barrel draw. [EIA/S]
  
  U.S. crude inventories, including those from strategic reserves, have fallen by 79 million barrels since the Iran war began on February 28, as the top global producer moved to plug supply gaps after the strait was effectively shut.
  
  Underscoring the squeeze, OPEC output in May slid to its lowest level in over two decades, a Reuters survey showed, as a U.S. naval blockade curbed Iran’s exports and Tehran’s effective closure of the strategic waterway slashed shipments from other Gulf producers.
  
  Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-06-11
  How Fake News Became the Most Dangerous Force in Energy Markets
  We live in a dangerously synthetic world. Scalper-style traders reportedly generated significant profits on suspiciously timed oil trades surrounding Iran war developments in Q2. AI-generated content is creating new verification challenges. Fake news... Read more We live in a dangerously synthetic world. Scalper-style traders reportedly generated significant profits on suspiciously timed oil trades surrounding Iran war developments in Q2.
  
  AI-generated content is creating new verification challenges. Fake news about an attack on Saudi oil facilities, for instance, could contribute to crude price volatility.
  
  It’s a dangerous, unsustainable, AI-generated environment that rewards whoever gets information first, whether it’s real or not.
  
  Now, it’s time to level the playing field, turning AI verification itself into an important value chain.
  
  Hydaway Digital, (TSXV:HIDE, OTC:HIDDF) is setting out to capture market share in a digital trust industry that’s worth $535 billion already and on track to hit an unbelievable $3.375 trillion by 2032.
  
  Recently acquired by Hydaway, RealityChek could be the new tool to restore institutional trust to financial markets through real-time verification of major events and developments that move markets aggressively.
  
  Hydaway’s thesis is simple: Financial markets can’t operate indefinitely on information flows that institutions no longer fully trust.
  
  The Digital ‘Truth Layer’
  
  Hydaway’s answer to our digital trust breakdown is DETECT, a verification tool built on top of the company’s RealityChek platform.
  
  Since the rise of generative AI in 2022, more than 15 billion AI-generated images have already entered circulation. More than 34 million AI images are generated every day. Studies now show people are fooled by AI-generated images roughly 40% of the time.
  
  And in 2026, as missiles were flying across the Middle East, clips claiming to show strikes hitting Tel Aviv racked up millions of views in hours before someone realized that the “impact footage” was actually fireworks from a football celebration in Algiers.
  
  And as tensions escalated, a completely AI-generated video of the Burj Khalifa engulfed in flames spread across platforms, drawing tens of millions of views.
  
  That becomes far more dangerous once misinformation starts colliding with financial markets, geopolitical conflict, and commodity pricing.
  
  Iran’s parliament speaker recently accused the U.S. of deliberately manipulating oil prices through false reports tied to negotiations and conflict developments. At the same time, social media platforms have been flooded with fabricated footage from the Iran war, including fake missile strikes, manipulated combat footage, and AI-generated imagery spreading globally before verification could catch up.
  
  DETECT is the new digital police. It allows users to upload images and URLs and receive real-time authenticity analysis powered by Hydaway’s GPU infrastructure and RealityChek’s detection models.
  
  Underneath, the system analyzes multiple forensic layers simultaneously: noise signatures, frequency patterns, compression behavior, metadata inconsistencies, and pixel-level artifacts that can reveal whether content has been manipulated or entirely generated by AI.
  
  The company is also training DETECT through advanced neural networks that continuously evolve as AI-generated content becomes more sophisticated.
  
  “This rapid growth of AI-generated content has continued to lead to widespread misinformation being shared globally online. Never before has misinformation become more mainstream than with the rise of AI-generated content,” said Hydaway CEO Karl Kottmeier. “DETECT is built to counter just that, combining AI with forensic tools to produce a reliable verdict you can trust.”
  
  The Opportunity
  
  RealityChek’s DETECT is built as an enterprise-grade SaaS model designed for recurring revenue and scalability across financial institutions, governments, insurance, enterprise systems, communications, onboarding, and transaction verification.
  
  The transition from RealityChek into the publicly listed Hydaway Digital Corp. (TSXV:HIDE, OTC:HIDDF) represents a strategic step in the company’s development. Through this integration, a specialized technology has evolved into a fully integrated cybersecurity company with access to capital markets, scaling infrastructure, and clearly defined growth objectives.
  
  This isn’t just a deepfake detector. Hydaway isn’t dependent on a single market segment or a single AI application.
  
  RealityChek is being built to scale across multiple industries at the same time as AI-generated fraud, impersonation, and misinformation spread through financial systems, enterprise networks, governments, and media platforms.
  
  The platform aims to monetize in multiple ways, including SaaS subscriptions, API licensing, usage-based fee models, data licensing, and custom enterprise datasets. The goal is not one-time software sales. The goal is institutional and recurring.
  
  And the commercial footprint may have applications across multiple sectors.
  
  Combining AI-driven forensic analysis with blockchain-anchored verification, Hydaway is targeting financial services, government systems, media, and enterprise compliance–all of which are expected to be looking to reduce legal, regulatory, and fraud exposure in the coming months and years.
  
  In the markets of cybersecurity and digital trust, deepfake detection and digital verification are emerging as some of the fastest-growing segments.
  
  Monetizing a Return to Trust
  
  The global digital identity market is set to reach $170 billion by 2031, while the separate identity verification market is expected to be near $65 billion by 2035, and fraud detection and prevention is eyeing $252 billion by 2030-2032. They’re all part of the “digital trust industry”—an increasingly important industry in to business.
  
  Hydaway’s RealityChek already holds more than 5 million data points and over 2 million images, with access to datasets that extend into the billions. And its verification process establishes integrity immediately–before it gets acted on.
  
  Digital trust has become a pressing issue almost overnight, and the money required to catch up with AI is enormous, as is the task itself.
  
  Financial institutions are already pouring massive amounts of capital into digital trust, fraud prevention, and verification infrastructure.
  
  Banks and financial institutions are expected to spend some $40 billion on fraud detection and prevention systems by 2030. In 2025 alone, they spent an estimated $21 billion.
  
  Deloitte’s 2026 banking outlook says financial crime is “escalating in scale, speed, and sophistication,” driving higher compliance costs and operational strain on banks. It also says banks submitted a record 2.6 million suspicious activity reports in fiscal 2024, or roughly 7,100 per day, while warning that malicious AI agents can generate “fraudulent, human-like behavior,” evade detection, and anonymize identity.
  
  “The industry cannot rely on siloed data and legacy systems to deliver meaningful outcomes against external attacks, geopolitical events, and regulatory scrutiny,” Deloitte said in its 2026 report.
  
  That’s what Hydaway is banking on, and it’s not just about financial institutions.
  
  Governments are spending big, as well. They’re deploying billions into cybersecurity, identity authentication, zero trust systems, and digital resilience infrastructure as manipulated information, synthetic identities, and AI-driven fraud increasingly become national security concerns.
  
  This broader push toward digital trust is also benefiting some of the largest names in cybersecurity and data intelligence. Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) continues to expand its role in government and enterprise data analytics, helping organizations process vast amounts of information and identify actionable insights across increasingly complex digital environments. Meanwhile, CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ: CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW) remain at the forefront of cybersecurity, providing AI-powered threat detection, identity protection, cloud security, and threat intelligence solutions as institutions race to defend themselves against increasingly sophisticated cyber threats and AI-generated fraud.
  
  With either $100 oil or $200 oil, across the board, there is a growing institutional fear that traditional verification systems are no longer sufficient. Once manipulated media, synthetic identities, fake documentation, and AI-generated misinformation begin moving at machine speed across financial and other systems, traditional verification processes may face increased strain.
  
  It’s a fast-paced game of catch-up with AI, and Hydaway is seeking to address these challenges.
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-06-11
  Algeria’s Gas Advantage Is Real. So Are Its Production Problems.
  Algeria’s 2026 hydrocarbon bidding round is arriving at a moment when timing may matter as much as geology. Oil and gas prices have been lifted by the prolonged Middle Eastern crisis, Europe is still trying to hardwire non-Russian gas into its supply... Read more Algeria’s 2026 hydrocarbon bidding round is arriving at a moment when timing may matter as much as geology. Oil and gas prices have been lifted by the prolonged Middle Eastern crisis, Europe is still trying to hardwire non-Russian gas into its supply system, and former Middle Eastern investors are reassessing where long-cycle upstream capital can be redirected without excessive security risk. For Algiers, this creates a sudden opening to cement its position as Europe’s second-largest natural gas supplier but also exposes the scale of the challenges it must overcome.
  
  In early June, the Algerian National Agency for the Valorisation of Hydrocarbon Resources (ALNAFT) has launched seven onshore conventional oil and gas blocks, with bids and ratification due in November. The offer is estimated to contain around 2.1 billion barrels of oil and 66.5 billion m3 of gas, spread across a mix of existing discoveries and exploration areas. Four of the seven blocks are in the Illizi-Ghadames basin near the Libyan and Tunisian borders, while the rest cover more oil-oriented potential in the Oued Mya and Sahara basins.
  
  That geography matters. Algeria’s 2024 round (the first out of 5 planned) was more weighted toward gas-prone south-western acreage, where resources are attractive, but infrastructure is far less developed, thus exploration and production timelines are longer. The 2026 round shifts attention to the south-east, where the Berkine and Illizi-Ghadames basins are more mature, better connected and easier to bring to market. That makes this tender more commercially relevant in a high-price environment.
  
  The previous round was not a failure, but it was not a roaring success either. Five of six licences were awarded, yet competition was moderate, reflecting the legacy of years in which Algeria’s upstream terms struggled to attract enough foreign capital. The 2014 round had exposed that problem clearly, with investors deterred by high taxes, heavy state control and limited commercial flexibility. The 2019 hydrocarbons law was meant to repair the damage by widening contract options and removing the previous requirement for Sonatrach to hold at least 51% in upstream projects.
  
  The 2024 awards showed that the reset had begun. QatarEnergy entered Algeria alongside TotalEnergies in the Ahara licence, with Total as operator and each company holding 24.5%. Eni and Thailand’s PTTEP took the gas-oriented Reggane 2 project. Chinese companies also deepened their position, with Sinopec taking Hassi Berkane North and pursuing gas exploration at Guern El Guessa, while the lesser known Zhongman Petroleum (China) entered the Zerafa II gas block. Since then, Eni has signed a $1.35 billion production-sharing deal in the Zemoul El Kbar perimeter, expected to produce 415 million barrels of oil equivalent including 9.3 billion m3 of gas, while Saudi Arabia’s Midad Energy signed a $5.4 billion contract for Illizi South near the Libyan border.
  
  This investor mix is important. Eni has been present in Algeria since 1981 and has been producing around 140,000 boe/day, making the country a core part of its portfolio. TotalEnergies is both an upstream investor and a major offtaker of Algerian LNG. QatarEnergy brings LNG expertise and strong financial backing. PTTEP, Sinopec and the Saudi entry shows that Algeria’s upstream opening is no longer just a European story. Talks with Chevron and ExxonMobil, focused largely on shale and unconventional gas potential, are still ongoing, but they point to another possible layer of interest if the commercial terms remain attractive.
  
  The reason this matters is simple: Algeria’s export position is strong, but its production base is not. The country is Africa’s largest gas producer and natural gas accounts for roughly 49% of its hydrocarbon output. Total recoverable resources are estimated at 2.5 - 3.4 trillion m3 of gas and around 10.5 billion barrels of oil. But currently developed fields are mature, domestic demand is rising, and the export surplus is being squeezed. Production increased from around 278 million m3/day in 2021 to 287 million m3/day in 2023, but that 2023 number appear to have marked a peak rather than the start of a sustained growth cycle.
  
  Algeria’s upstream backbone is Hassi R’Mel, the country’s largest gas field and still the main pillar of its production base after 65 years in operation. Having peaked in the mid-1990s, the field is now deeply mature, with its initial 3 trillion m3 resource base depleted to roughly 20% of its former volume (a trend mirrored by Algeria’s giant oil field Hassi Messaoud). Satellite fields and nearby tie-ins have helped slow down the decline, but Sonatrach’s room for manoeuvre is narrowing as the pool of readily available discoveries becomes narrower. Much of today’s pressure is the delayed consequence of Algeria’s 14-year ban on production-sharing and service contracts for natural gas fields between 2005 and 2019, which held back upstream momentum just as incremental supply from the discoveries of the 1980s and 1990s was beginning to fade.
  
  Pipeline gas is still the backbone of Algeria’s export system. Around two-thirds of exports move by pipelines, mainly through the TransMed route via Tunisia and Sicily into Italy, and the Medgaz subsea link directly to Almeria in Spain. TransMed has capacity of about 32–35 billion m3/year and carried roughly 21 billion m3 in recent years. Medgaz can move around 10–10.5 billion m3/year. The third older Morocco-Spain route has been shut since 2021 after Algiers declined to renew the transit agreement amid political tensions with Rabat.
  
  Italy is now Algeria’s central gas customer, taking roughly 20–23 billion m3/year and relying on Algerian supply for about 30% of its gas needs. Spain is more complicated politically but remains structurally important, with Algeria covering roughly 25% of its gas imports. Talks that began in March 2026 to expand Medgaz by up to 1 billion m3/year show that the appetite for Algerian pipeline gas is still there. The constraint is not demand, but deliverability.
  
  LNG tells the same story with more volatility. Algeria has two LNG export hubs: Arzew/Bethioua in the west, with about 20.8 million t/year of liquefaction capacity, and Skikda in the east, operating at around 4.5 million t/year. LNG exports surged after Europe’s break with Russian gas, rising from an average of around 900 kt/month of liquefied gas to a record 1.3 million kt in September 2023, a 60% year on year jump. France, Italy and Spain were the main European buyers, while Turkey took almost a quarter of shipments. By 2025, however, Algerian exports to Europe had slipped to around 9.5 million tonnes of LNG a year, or about 6% of the continent’s LNG imports, down roughly 2 million tonnes year-on-year. Adding the pipeline exports, by 2025 Algeria accounted for around 18% of EU natural gas imports, second only to Norway and ahead of Russia. That gives Algiers strategic leverage, especially with Italy and Spain. But it also raises the stakes: Europe needs Algeria to remain reliable, while Algeria needs new upstream investment to keep up the production.
  
  However, the recent issue has become Algeria’s growing domestic demand. Algeria consumed around 57 billion m3/year of gas in 2025, absorbing more than half of the national output. That means every additional cubic metre must be fought over by power demand, industrial consumption, pipeline contracts and LNG cargoes. For a country where hydrocarbons account for around 10–12% of GDP and more than 90% of export revenues, the shrinking export cushion is not just an energy issue, but also a fiscal and external-balance problem.
  
  This is why the 2026 round matters more than the acreage map suggests. Oil remains useful, but Algeria’s OPEC+ membership puts a cap on crude investment for the upcoming years. Gas is the strategic prize. It can strengthen Algeria’s role in Europe’s supply security, preserve market share in Italy and Spain, and give Sonatrach more optionality through LNG. Yet none of that is possible without new field development and infrastructure investment in underdeveloped gas provinces.
  
  Algeria has a rare opening. Europe wants nearby gas, investors want alternatives to the Gulf’s security risk, and the country has made its upstream terms more flexible than they were a decade ago. But the window is not permanent. Mature fields, rising domestic demand and infrastructure gaps will steadily erode export capacity unless new projects move quickly. If the 2026 bidding round brings in serious capital, Algeria can turn today’s geopolitical sudden chance into a longer-term gas advantage. If it disappoints, the country risks becoming a supplier that Europe needs badly, but one with too little spare gas to fully benefit from. Source: Oilprice.com

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