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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 786.00
+121.00
1 390.00
-5.00
Oct 26
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 786.00	+121.00	1 390.00	-5.00	Oct 26

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
778.42	+1.14	913.07	+1.72	1 524.50	-7.27	Oct 30

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	700	783	-83	768	889	-121	1 390	1 592	-202	Oct 30
Singapore	905	840	+65	995	1 025	-30	1 282	1 585	-303	Oct 30
Fujairah	758	779	-21	981	973	+8	1 690	1 648	+42	Oct 30
Houston	625	733	-108	835	876	-41	1 400	1 502	-102	Oct 30

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Latest News
- 2026-10-30
  Oil set for fourth monthly gain as Hormuz tanker attack highlights supply risks from war
  Oil prices rose on Friday — set for a fourth monthly gain — as an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the continuing supply risks from the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has entered its eighth month. Brent crude futures for December,... Read more Oil prices rose on Friday — set for a fourth monthly gain — as an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the continuing supply risks from the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has entered its eighth month.
  
  Brent crude futures for December, which expire on Friday, advanced $1.20, or 1.04%, to $116.08 a barrel as of 0323 GMT. The more-active January contract gained $1.39 to $112.19.
  
  US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed $1.37, or 1.34%, to $103.37.
  
  For the month, Brent was on course to finish nearly 11% higher, while WTI was heading for a 14% jump.
  
  On Friday, a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz — the key sea outlet for Gulf crude and fuel supplies — was hit by explosive devices attached by a small boat, the UKMTO said. It was not immediately clear who was behind the attack.
  
  “Continued kinetic action around the Strait of Hormuz amidst doubts of a viable diplomatic pathway are keeping oil prices elevated in expectation of an escalation of the conflict in coming weeks,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
  
  On Thursday, the Houthis said they had attacked several sites in Saudi Arabia, including its largest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, the Rabigh refinery and a production facility in Abqaiq owned by state company Saudi Aramco, while a Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted a cruise missile launched by the Houthis towards the kingdom’s western region.
  
  US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Vice President JD Vance had reached out to Iran to help the country get medical supplies, after US media reported Vance had written to Tehran’s top security official to revive peace talks.
  
  Iran has received a letter from Vance but it has not responded to it yet, the country’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, while adding that Tehran wants the US to meet its conditions and "any position that contradicts this framework is unacceptable."
  
  Amid the security concerns in the Middle East, ExxonMobil and Chevron have cancelled plans for their executives to travel to the United Arab Emirates’ biggest oil show next week, two sources familiar with the developments told Reuters.
  
  Oil prices could become even more volatile in the next couple of weeks due to Israel’s parliamentary election and the US midterm congressional vote, Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said at a media briefing in Singapore on Thursday.
  
  Hansen said the heightened uncertainty made it difficult to forecast prices, but he expects crude to trade in a higher range of $70 to $90 a barrel, compared with the pre-war level of $60-$70, even after the conflict ends due to the risk of renewed hostilities and the need for inventory replenishment. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-10-30
  Trump's Russian Diesel Is a Legal Hot Potato With a Five-Year Fuse
  A Malta-flagged tanker called the Agioi Fanendes left the Russian port of Primorsk on Oct. 22 carrying nearly 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low-sulfur diesel, and ship-tracking data has it arriving at the Port of New York and New Jersey on Nov. 7, four... Read more A Malta-flagged tanker called the Agioi Fanendes left the Russian port of Primorsk on Oct. 22 carrying nearly 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low-sulfur diesel, and ship-tracking data has it arriving at the Port of New York and New Jersey on Nov. 7, four days after the midterm elections. Nobody has publicly said who bought the fuel, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., has asked the ship’s owner to identify the buyer and everyone else involved by Oct. 31.
  
  The cargo is the first visible piece of the deal President Donald Trump announced Oct. 9, after a call with Vladimir Putin that was supposed to be about a suspected plague case in Russia. He announced it while envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting Ukrainian officials in Miami about a proposal to end the war, saying Russia would start with 300,000 tons of diesel right away and scale up from there, and as he left the White House for a campaign rally, he told reporters, “I want to thank President Putin.” Treasury issued a license authorizing the trade the same day.
  
  Washington spent years tightening the screws on Russian energy, and Congress wrote the import ban into law in 2022, so a president thanking Putin for diesel on his way to a rally went over about as well as you’d guess. Four days later, 12 senators, six of them Republicans, wrote to Trump asking him to rescind it. Much of the debate has centered on the politics and the fallout for Ukraine, which matters, but there’s a more practical question that gets less attention: what happens when the fuel actually shows up, and can anyone take it without worrying about a knock on the door later?
  
  What a Treasury License Can’t Do
  
  The document doing the work is OFAC General License 135, which authorizes transactions tied to the sale, delivery, offloading, and importation of Russian-origin diesel, including into the United States, through April 7, 2027. It’s a Treasury license rather than an executive order, and that distinction carries the whole legal fight, because a license can only relax rules the executive branch wrote itself.
  
  Most of the Russia sanctions Treasury enforces rest on emergency powers that presidents have used since 2014, and Scott Anderson, a senior editor at Lawfare and a former State Department lawyer, says Trump can almost certainly waive those at will, but the import ban is another matter. Joe Biden banned Russian oil and fuel imports by executive order in March 2022, and Congress followed later that spring with the Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, which put the ban in statute for everything under Chapter 27 of the tariff schedule, diesel included. A president can lift it only if conditions are met, among them a peace deal accepted by Ukraine’s government and advance notice to Congress, and none of that has happened.
  
  Treasury’s only public explanation so far is a post on X saying the license is consistent with earlier actions and complies with all applicable laws. Anderson says the administration has a colorable argument built on language in the 2022 act that ties it to the original executive order, but that it’s far from clear a court would accept it. The White House does have some precedent on its side, since Treasury issued a series of 30-day licenses this spring, aimed at easing prices that spiked with the Iran war, for Russian oil already loaded on ships, and they passed without much fuss, even though there’s a separate argument that Congress should have been given advance notice of licenses that significantly change Russia policy. This one runs six months and covers future shipments, which is a bigger ask.
  
  Blumenthal put the objection more bluntly in his letter to the shipowner, writing that the president may have issued a license but “only Congress can make it legally valid.”
  
  The license is also drawn around diesel alone, which Anderson reads as a possible nod to the Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, the sanctions law Trump signed in September. That law defines crude oil in a way that leaves diesel out, so the administration can argue it isn’t working against the letter of the statute, though whether it honors the spirit is a harder question.
  
  Who Signs for the Cargo?
  
  Trump himself seemed to hedge on the U.S. part of the equation earlier this month, telling reporters the arrangement wasn’t really with him and was “a deal for the world,” which sits awkwardly next to a tanker steaming for New York Harbor. If the fuel does arrive, though, someone has to take title to it, a terminal has to let it dock, a bank has to move the money, and an insurer has to cover the ship, and each of them is looking at the same exposure. The White House didn’t say at the announcement who would be paying for the fuel, and the buyer of the first cargo still hasn’t surfaced.
  
  Importing goods contrary to law carries criminal penalties under federal customs law along with civil ones, and Anderson notes that Trump could use his pardon power to shield importers from the criminal side but not the civil side, which can reach the full value of the cargo and the forfeiture of the vessel that carried it. Customs penalties can be pursued for up to five years after a shipment arrives.
  
  That five-year window is the real answer to whether a company could get stuck after the election, because it doesn’t depend on who controls Congress, and a president who takes office in January 2029 would still have years left on the clock for a cargo that lands in November.
  
  Lawmakers have already started building a paper trail, beginning Oct. 24 when six senators and one House member asked major banks and port authorities in Texas and New York to preserve shipping documents, contracts and communications with government officials, and three days later Blumenthal asked the ship’s owner, the Greek firm EASTMED, to identify the seller, buyer, charterer, insurer, terminal operator and distributor, and to say whether any federal agency had given it instructions. So Treasury has said yes, while the people who would have to touch the cargo are being asked to hang on to their emails.
  
  Allies add friction of their own, since UK and EU sanctions on Russian diesel are still in force, which Clyde & Co says bars banks and insurers based there from helping with the shipment unless it’s price cap compliant, and one of the three tankers due next month, the Leruo, is sanctioned by Britain, the EU and Canada.
  
  Arriving After the Votes Are Counted
  
  Three tankers carrying about 140,000 metric tons are scheduled to reach U.S. ports between Nov. 7 and Nov. 11, which puts the first unloading after the polls close, though the dates have shifted from report to report. NBC News had the Agioi Fanendes closer to Nov. 10, and gCaptain retracted a story this week about a separate cargo it had expected in Norfolk on Nov. 2. Moscow is treating the shipments as routine, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying more tankers will follow regularly, and Putin’s own readout of the call described Russia as ready to supply oil and oil products to American and global markets, which is a wider offer than diesel.
  
  Democrats have been heavy favorites to take the House, with Polymarket traders putting the odds at 93 percent earlier this month and a Senate flip at roughly 65 percent. A Democratic House would bring document requests and subpoena power, and a sweep, which would be worse for the deal, would put Senate committee chairs behind the same questions.
  
  A new Congress wouldn’t be seated until January, though, and Trump would still hold a veto, so the midterms are better read as a pressure point than a trigger, and the opposition isn’t strictly partisan anyway. Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Curtis of Utah joined a bipartisan statement saying the imports violate the 2022 ban; Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., has promised bipartisan legislation to block Russian oil purchases; and Senate Armed Services Chairman Roger Wicker of Mississippi has predicted the imports never materialize. Trump’s answer to GOP critics has been to dismiss them as “Republicans that can’t really be serious.”
  
  What a landed cargo does change is who can sue, since Anderson suggests competitors such as biodiesel and renewable diesel producers would likely have standing once imports actually happen. Importers have also seen how quickly this administration’s rules can move. The Graham act passed the Senate 86 to 11 and told Trump to impose new tariffs on the biggest buyers of Russian oil by Oct. 18, and on Oct. 16 he signed an executive order that put the duties on the books and waived them in the same document. Anyone who has spent the past couple of years importing goods under tariff rates that kept shifting will recognize the setup, which is committing to a cargo on one set of rules and finding out the rules changed while it was at sea, and that’s a harder sell when the penalties can include the ship itself.
  
  The Part Kyiv Pays For
  
  Anderson argues the heaviest cost lands on Ukraine, where Trump declared an “energy ceasefire” within days, without consulting Kyiv or Moscow, after Putin appeared to persuade him that Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries were driving up global prices. Ukraine held off briefly and appeared to be back to hitting Russian refineries by Oct. 15, while Russia kept striking Ukrainian energy sites, and Trump has since blamed Volodymyr Zelenskyy for America’s diesel bill.
  
  Washington is also easing pressure on Moscow while London and Brussels keep theirs on, which isn’t a small thing to hand allies, and the 12 senators who asked Trump to rescind the deal called it “a betrayal of the people of Ukraine.” In Britain, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch called the move a disappointing step backward on Russian oil sanctions.
  
  A Couple of Hours of Diesel
  
  The White House’s case is simple, and it isn’t crazy. Diesel was running above $6 a gallon in early October, the war with Iran has squeezed supply through the Strait of Hormuz, and a Trump administration official told Semafor that taking Russian fuel is an inevitable consequence of that war. Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers has called the deal a great way to supply the global market and bring prices down, and it’s one lever among several, since Trump has also signed an order loosening rules on red-dyed diesel and pressed Germany and France to release reserves.
  
  The supply math is where it gets thin. Russian diesel output has fallen by about 30 percent, according to the International Energy Agency; Ukrainian drone strikes have hammered its refineries, and Moscow had been restricting exports to feed its own market before the deal, so it isn’t clear Russia can ship everything that was promised. Even if every ton shows up, the full 4.8 million tons Trump described adds up to about 10 days of U.S. demand, and Goldman Sachs figures it would trim prices by only $1 to $2 a barrel.
  
  Anderson noted in mid-October that global diesel prices hadn’t moved in any meaningful way since the announcement. The first tanker is smaller still, at roughly 300,000 barrels, and it has already drawn a Senate demand letter and a five-year liability clock that outlasts the license. Somebody in New York will have to decide whether a couple of hours of diesel is worth five years of explaining it. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-30
  U.S. Pushes Nuclear Energy Expansion in Central Asia and Caucasus
  The United States is making a fresh push to promote the use of American nuclear energy technology in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Shawna J. Wilson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Security Programs, traveled to both regions recently for meetings... Read more The United States is making a fresh push to promote the use of American nuclear energy technology in Central Asia and the Caucasus.
  
  Shawna J. Wilson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Security Programs, traveled to both regions recently for meetings with Armenian and Kazakh officials that explored ways to advance US nuclear cooperation with both countries.
  
  The United States and Armenia finalized a nuclear cooperation deal in February during a visit to Yerevan by Vice President JD Vance. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, signed an agreement in late 2025 covering US training assistance for Kazakh technicians in the nuclear sector.
  
  US cooperation has focused on the construction and safe operation of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs). Wilson’s discussions in Kazakhstan paid “particular attention” to Kazakh participation in the US-led FIRST program, which, according to the State Department, “provides capacity-building support to partner countries as they develop their nuclear energy programs to support clean energy goals.”
  
  According to an account published by the Kazakh state news agency Kazinform, both sides during the October 27 talks “confirmed their mutual interest in further developing Kazakh-American cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy.” Kazakhstan presently has plans to build three large-scale nuclear facilities, to be built by Russian and Chinese firms.
  
  In Armenia, Wilson met with Narek Apitonyan, the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure official leading the country’s efforts to develop its nuclear capacity. Armenia is currently considering options to replace its antiquated Metsamor nuclear plant, an issue that has stoked competition between Russia and the United States to secure the contract.
  
  After expressing initial enthusiasm for SMRs, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently indicated that small reactors may not fit Armenia’s needs, an announcement that seemingly put Russia back in the lead in the race to build a new nuclear facility.
  
  But Apitonyan, in comments posted on the ministry’s Facebook account, suggested that the United States will have a role in Armenia’s nuclear future. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-30
  Investors Are Piling Into Dangote. But Is the Price Right?
  Nigerian downstream giant Dangote Petroleum Refinery has closed its public offer (IPO). It is now bringing Africa’s industrial ambitions onto investors’ balance sheets. The outcome is already substantial. However, questions remain about the investment... Read more Nigerian downstream giant Dangote Petroleum Refinery has closed its public offer (IPO). It is now bringing Africa’s industrial ambitions onto investors’ balance sheets. The outcome is already substantial. However, questions remain about the investment case. Yes, a refinery can transform a country’s energy security. However, it can still deliver disappointing returns to shareholders, especially if they pay too much for earnings that prove temporary.
  
  After the October 27 celebrations, this distinction matters. Applications are still being checked, with regulatory approval of allotments and the start of trading ahead. Reports claim demand is roughly three times the targeted offer. Enthusiasm is clearly there, but final allocations and proceeds remain to be confirmed. The oversubscription shows appetite, especially at the offer price. However, it will not establish what the business is worth through a refining downturn.
  
  Still, a strong business lies beneath the publicity. Dangote’s coastal complex entails refining, petrochemicals, storage, and marine infrastructure, with current crude-processing capacity stated at 700,000 bpd. This scale will create opportunities to spread costs, compete with imported fuels, and supply overseas customers. For Nigeria, after decades in a corner, the overall strategic value is clear. From a shareholder's point of view, the challenge remains converting those advantages into durable cash returns.
  
  The latest financial figures already deserve serious attention. Unaudited results for the first nine months of 2026 showed revenue of $22.48 billion, EBITDA of $5.52 billion, and net profit of $4.73 billion. Operating cash flow hit around $3.68 billion. Cash stood at $6.69 billion, with reported net cash of $650.8 million. Taken together, these numbers weaken any argument that the IPO is simply rescuing a financially distressed project. Still, they do not represent normal earning power. The company’s EBITDA margin reached approximately 24.6%, mainly driven by a dramatic improvement in refining economics. Investors in Dangote should clearly distinguish the lasting benefits of higher throughput and better reliability from the temporary benefits of unusually favorable product markets. Higher oil prices alone do not guarantee higher profits. The company’s earnings depend on the spread between feedstock costs and product revenues.
  
  This distinction will be crucial when valuing the shares. The base offer comprised 4.1 billion new shares at ?525, implying approximately ?2.15 trillion in gross proceeds and a post-offer equity value of ?65.22 trillion if fully allotted. Based on an illustrative exchange rate of ?1,350 to the dollar, the total value is slated to be around $48.3 billion. The exchange rate is a calculation assumption, not a claim about the eventual listing-day rate.
  
  If we straight-line annualize nine months of net income, this produces about $6.31 billion. With that in mind, the offer is very inexpensive, at about 7.7 times earnings. Keep in mind, annualization is arithmetic, not a forecast. As always, it could be cheap now as earnings are unusually strong.
  
  There is a clear valuation risk. Investors buying apparently cheap earnings may actually be paying a demanding price for profits measured across a full cycle. A convincing valuation requires assumptions about refining margins, utilization, taxation, and maintenance costs.
  
  Cash conversion provides another useful test. Operating cash flow represented approximately 78% of reported net income over the nine months. That is meaningful cash generation, although the difference deserves explanation through working-capital movements and other adjustments. More fundamentally, operating cash flow comes before capital expenditure. Not all of this cash is freely available for future dividend payouts. It is also necessary to realize that Dangote is preparing another construction program.
  
  The prospectus envisages capital expenditure of $4.8 billion for the remainder of 2026, followed by $3.9 billion in 2027 and $3.1 billion in 2028. That totals $11.8 billion across the stated periods. Investors should not take these figures as set in stone, as they reflect planned expenditures rather than confirmed spending already completed. With any increase in planned investments, cash will be absorbed very quickly.
  
  Still, it is likely that, given Dangote’s position in Nigeria and the global market, expansion could ultimately increase earnings and reinforce its competitive position. However, it also exposes shareholders to construction costs, commissioning delays, and the possibility that new capacity comes online with weaker margins. Today’s healthy liquidity provides protection; it does not remove those choices.
  
  At the same time, another layer matters: feedstock. Nigeria’s oil resources do not automatically ensure that the refinery receives the right crude, at the right price, on reliable terms. Analysis of the offer documents shows a meaningful reliance on imported and spot barrels alongside domestic supplies. This will ultimately bring freight, currency, and working-capital requirements into the economics. If Dangote expands its total capacity as planned, procurement discipline will need to increase, as will the volume opportunity.
  
  Dangote’s importance, even its political connections, cuts both ways in Nigeria. Nigeria will clearly benefit from reliable domestic fuel production. Shareholders, however, will be seeking commercially attractive margins. This can coexist, but it can also cause conflict when international prices rise. Investors should therefore allow for pressure over pricing, import competition and domestic supply priorities. Strategic importance should not be taken to guarantee favorable treatment indefinitely.
  
  Nor should dollar-dividend expectations obscure currency risk. The prospectus already makes distributions conditional on financial capacity, financing arrangements, and approvals; payment may occur in naira. At present, there is a provision for naira settlement of share trades until dollar settlement becomes operationally available. Keep in mind that dollar-linked business revenues do not always deliver frictionless dollar returns to an offshore shareholder.
  
  Dangote holds the potential to change Africa’s fuel trade. The IPO opens participation in that achievement, but ownership brings exposure to the refining cycle and management’s capital-allocation decisions. It will be interesting to see whether strong margins survive normalization, expansion stays disciplined, and cash ultimately reaches shareholders. There is now clearly an investment claim on future returns. The celebrations will end long before that claim is fully tested.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-30
  Exxon, Chevron Executives Cancel Gulf Visit Over Security Concerns
  ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods and Chevron upstream president Clay Neff have canceled plans to attend next week's ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi over security concerns, according to sources cited by Reuters on Thursday. Both executives were expected at... Read more ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods and Chevron upstream president Clay Neff have canceled plans to attend next week's ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi over security concerns, according to sources cited by Reuters on Thursday.
  
  Both executives were expected at the November 2-5 event, one of the oil industry's largest annual gatherings, and Woods is still showing up on the roster. Neither company would comment on the cancellations, which come as Washington considers another round of military action against Iran.
  
  President Donald Trump has said the United States would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, although he subsequently raised the possibility of another military operation. ADIPEC runs through November 5, putting much of the conference on the calendar immediately after the election.
  
  The UAE has avoided Iranian attacks since May. Neighboring Saudi Arabia hasn't been nearly as fortunate. Houthi strikes this month have targeted Riyadh's international airport and Saudi Aramco headquarters, while the U.S. State Department last week ordered some American diplomats to leave the kingdom.
  
  Saudi Arabia has already postponed its annual Future Investment Initiative until 2027 after attacks disrupted air travel. The WPC Energy Congress went ahead in Riyadh earlier this month, although several major oil executives disappeared from the speaker lineup. Airport closures forced some delegates to drive to neighboring countries just to catch flights home.
  
  ADIPEC organizers are still expecting record participation. Nearly 240,000 people attended last year's event, hosted by UAE state oil company ADNOC, and this year's exhibition is expected to attract participants from more than 170 countries.
  
  BP CEO Meg O'Neill and Equinor CEO Anders Opedal remained on the conference's online schedule as of Thursday. Caturus chairman Ben Dell also withdrew from a scheduled panel, according to the Financial Times.
  
  Organizers say more than 120 U.S. companies will exhibit, giving the United States the second-largest national representation behind China. Exxon and Chevron’s senior executives, however, will be sitting this one out. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-30
  Europe to Release 42 Million Barrels of Oil
  Europe will release 42 million barrels of emergency oil stocks over the next three months, half of it diesel, as governments try to bring down fuel prices before winter, French Economy Minister Roland Lescure said Thursday. France's share includes... Read more Europe will release 42 million barrels of emergency oil stocks over the next three months, half of it diesel, as governments try to bring down fuel prices before winter, French Economy Minister Roland Lescure said Thursday.
  
  France's share includes 10 million barrels of diesel, which Lescure said will begin reaching the market in the coming days. The fuel will be supplied at cost, with Lescure forecasting a reduction of 12 to 18 cents per liter. He expects prices to respond as early as next week.
  
  The broader European release averages roughly 460,000 barrels per day over three months, 230,000 bpd of which is diesel. This is part of the G7's October agreement to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and fuel stocks over a four-month span, which counts toward the 400-million-barrel emergency release coordinated by the International Energy Agency, rather than an additional round of stockpile draws.
  
  Europe consumes more diesel than it refines, and Middle Eastern refinery damage and Russian export restrictions have removed supplies from a market already paying record prices for the fuel. European diesel futures exceeded $200 per barrel in September. Higher crude shipments from the Persian Gulf have not delivered a comparable recovery in finished fuel exports.
  
  European policymakers are also revisiting their refinery strategy, which for two decades largely involved closing refineries. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen called those closures a mistake Wednesday, ahead of Thursday's meeting of energy ministers in Luxembourg. One proposal would ease technical requirements to let remaining plants increase output.
  
  The latest release comes after months of unusually large inventory draws. Industry executives warned in early October that global oil stocks had been depleted to the point that another major supply disruption could send prices sharply higher. Europe's emergency reserves can put diesel on the market immediately, but domestic refinery capacity remains insufficient to meet demand, leaving the continent dependent on imported fuel.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-30
  Trafigura Signs New Gas Supply Deal with German SEFE
  Trafigura has signed a $1.5 billion five-year loan agreement that will back a contract for the commodity trading giant to supply more than 150 TWh of natural gas to Germany’s state-owned gas importer Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE) over the next five... Read more Trafigura has signed a $1.5 billion five-year loan agreement that will back a contract for the commodity trading giant to supply more than 150 TWh of natural gas to Germany’s state-owned gas importer Securing Energy for Europe (SEFE) over the next five years.
  
  Trafigura’s current deal with SEFE expires at the end of October. The trading group will supply SEFE from its global gas portfolio under the new contract, with the first delivery scheduled for November 1, 2026.
  
  Annual volumes of gas will increase to 30 TWh in the new five-year deal, up from about 23 TWh per year in the expiring contract, SEFE said.
  
  Trafigura’s loan agreement is partly supported by a guarantee under the Untied Loan Guarantee (UFK) of the government of the Federal Republic of Germany, acting through the German ECA Euler Hermes Aktiengesellschaft. The program is a tool to secure the long-term delivery of strategic commodities to Germany.
  
  Commenting on the new deal, SEFE’s chief commercial officer, Frédéric Barnaud, said, “Such partnerships strengthen our ability to source natural gas from a broad range of origins and reinforce our position as a reliable energy provider for our German and European customers.”
  
  Germany is scrambling to build gas reserves ahead of the winter amid historically low volumes of gas in its storage sites.
  
  As of October 28, gas storage sites in the EU were only 75% full, per data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.
  
  But Germany’s vast storage, the world’s fourth-largest, is just below 62% full now, which has prompted concerns about supply security if the coming winter turns out much colder than previous winters.
  
  Thanks to diversified import capabilities, Germany doesn’t face a gas supply shortage despite record-low levels of natural gas in storage sites, one of the biggest German gas importers, VNG, said at the end of last month. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-30
  UK National Grid to Extend France Power Link Operation to 2050
  UK’s National Grid plans to invest up to $532 million (£400 million) in extending the operation of the UK-France power interconnector until at least 2050 to preserve a vital electricity flexibility link. National Grid said on Thursday that after 40... Read more UK’s National Grid plans to invest up to $532 million (£400 million) in extending the operation of the UK-France power interconnector until at least 2050 to preserve a vital electricity flexibility link.
  
  National Grid said on Thursday that after 40 years of operation to date, the Interconnexion France-Angleterre (IFA), the cross-border electricity link jointly owned by National Grid and French grid operator RTE, will see its life extended at least until 2050.
  
  The investment to extend the operations is part of National Grid’s wider plans to invest at least $93 billion (£70 billion) across the Group over the five years to March 2031, the UK grid operator said.
  
  The UK has nearly a dozen electricity connectors with northwest European countries, but IFA is Britain’s largest subsea connection by capacity and can carry enough electricity to power about 3 million British homes annually.
  
  Since 1986, electricity has historically flowed mainly from France to Great Britain, but IFA also supports flows in the opposite direction when market conditions dictate.
  
  In 2022, for example, electricity exported from the UK helped France during outages across its nuclear fleet. There is also regular exporting on the intraday market, reflecting the different demand patterns between Great Britain and France.
  
  National Grid argues that Britain should preserve into the second half of the century the ability to access cheaper French nuclear generation when the price of wholesale power is high in Britain, helping to lower prices for British consumers.
  
  National Grid analysis has found that its interconnectors have delivered $2.66 billion (£2 billion) in net benefits to British consumers since 2023, compared with traditional gas generation.
  
  “As renewable generation grows, interconnectors can provide further opportunities to export electricity when UK supply exceeds domestic demand,” National Grid said.
  
  Rebecca Sedler, President of NGV UK, National Grid, commented, “I’m proud to announce this new investment which will extend the operation of IFA to meet the next phase of electricity demand, from AI to electric vehicles.”
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-30
  Iran War Hikes EU’s Oil Import Bill By $11 Billion Per Month
  The European Union has been paying $11 billion more to import oil since the Middle East crisis choked crude oil supplies and triggered a global fuel crisis, an analysis by Euronews Business showed on Thursday. The value of the EU’s petroleum imports... Read more The European Union has been paying $11 billion more to import oil since the Middle East crisis choked crude oil supplies and triggered a global fuel crisis, an analysis by Euronews Business showed on Thursday.
  
  The value of the EU’s petroleum imports jumped by 55.8% in the second quarter of 2026, despite the relatively stable volume of imports, according to Eurostat data.
  
  Between April and July, right after the closed Strait of Hormuz hiked oil prices, the EU spent an average of $30.7 billion (27.6 billion euros) per month on petroleum oil imports, up from $19.7 billion (17.7 billion euros) in the same period in 2025.
  
  Since volumes barely changed and rose by just 1.2%, Euronews Business estimates that the EU has paid $11 billion (9.9 billion euros) more on oil imports in April-July compared to a year earlier.
  
  Petroleum accounted for 95% of the increase in the EU’s total energy import bill in the second quarter, the analysis showed.
  
  Import costs are unlikely to drop significantly soon, as crude oil prices remain close to a five-month high and fuel prices spiked to record highs amid a tight global fuel market.
  
  Many European countries saw record-high gasoline and diesel prices, and governments scramble to provide relief to consumers.
  
  Record-high gasoline and diesel prices across Europe are accelerating a shift toward electric vehicles and hybrids while new registrations of conventional cars continue to plummet by double digits in key markets.
  
  Total car sales in Europe, including the UK, Norway, and Switzerland, rose by 10.2% in September from a year earlier, data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) showed last week.
  
  Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales jumped by 60%, plug-in hybrid sales rose by 24%, and hybrid electric vehicle sales went up 5.3%.
  
  In contrast, the sales of gasoline cars slumped by 20.6% in September compared to the same month last year, while diesel car sales plunged by 28.2%. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-10-29
  Oil falls as traders weigh Iran diplomacy against renewed strike risks
  Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors assessed fresh diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict in the Middle East, although concerns about renewed U.S. military strikes on Iran and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure continued to underpin prices.... Read more Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors assessed fresh diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict in the Middle East, although concerns about renewed U.S. military strikes on Iran and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure continued to underpin prices. Get oil market insights with InvestingPro - now 55% off
  
  As of 10:17 ET (14:17 GMT), Brent crude futures retreated by 1.0% to $114.19 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 1.8% to $100.95 per barrel. Both contracts rose in the previous session after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said they had attacked Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery.
  
  The market remained caught between hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and fears that a renewed escalation could further disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global crude shipments.
  
  The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. Vice President JD Vance reached out to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s top security body, in a move that could help establish a channel for negotiations.
  
  Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump told Axios on Wednesday that negotiations were taking place through mediators, but stressed that he did not know whether they would produce results.
  
  Qatari mediators have presented Tehran with a new draft proposal aimed at ending the conflict. However, an Iranian official described the ideas as unacceptable, Reuters reported.
  
  Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have also held talks with Iranian officials in Tehran this week.
  
  Trump has is reportedly considering carrying out short and intense military action against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. Washington has also warned regional allies to prepare for possible strikes and Iranian retaliation against energy facilities.
  
  The risk of further attacks has become a key driver of oil prices, with the conflict threatening both production facilities and shipping routes. Renewed fighting could dent a recent recovery in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, while attacks on Saudi infrastructure may limit the kingdom’s ability to export crude.
  
  "If anything, the outlook appears more dire amid the risk of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran [...]," analysts at ING said in a note.
  
  Elsewhere, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended October 23, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with analysts’ expectations for a small increase. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.9 million barrels, defying expectations for a decline, while distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.5 million barrels. Source: Reuters/Investing.com

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