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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 883.00
0.00
1 385.00
+5.00
Nov 3
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 883.00	0.00	1 385.00	+5.00	Nov 3

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
742.56	-14.41	886.80	-8.31	1 494.32	-1.19	Nov 4

Click to see Regional Bunker Indexes

MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	645	713	-68	750	811	-61	1 385	1 581	-196	Nov 4
Singapore	850	750	+100	948	926	+22	1 250	1 574	-324	Nov 4
Fujairah	713	702	+11	955	870	+85	1 665	1 637	+28	Nov 4
Houston	555	696	-141	785	827	-42	1 330	1 440	-110	Nov 4

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Analytical Section
- Daily and Weekly Bunker analyses and Future Curves
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Latest News
- 2026-11-04
  Oil edges down as investors await US midterm election results
  Oil prices slipped in early trade on Wednesday as investors awaited the results of the US midterm elections and their potential impact on peace talks in the Middle East, even after industry data showed US crude stocks unexpectedly fell last week. Brent... Read more Oil prices slipped in early trade on Wednesday as investors awaited the results of the US midterm elections and their potential impact on peace talks in the Middle East, even after industry data showed US crude stocks unexpectedly fell last week.
  
  Brent futures fell 26 cents, or 0.25%, to $103.34 a barrel by 0157 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 53 cents, or 0.55%, to $95.56.
  
  Which sectors are most sensitive to oil-price moves?
  
  What supply data could change the outlook for oil?
  In the previous session, Brent eased more than 1% to its lowest level in nearly four weeks as traders weighed talks to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran.
  
  Vote counting was underway in the US midterm elections, which will determine whether Trump’s Republican Party retains control of Congress for the rest of his second term.
  
  Markets remained on watch for any progress in talks to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, as Qatar stepped up mediation efforts to avert an escalation of attacks after the US midterm elections.
  
  A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that Iran and the United States remain far from a deal to end their war.
  
  The United States carried out "defensive" strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island targeting surface-to-air missiles used against US assets, a US official said on Tuesday. Another official said the strikes appeared limited and did not signal a return to major combat operations.
  
  US President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the United States had no immediate plans to strike Iran.
  
  “We seem to be getting everything we want,” Trump said in the six-minute telephone interview.
  
  Meanwhile, crude stocks fell by 5.27 million barrels in the week ended October 30, market sources said on Wednesday, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute.
  
  Eight analysts polled by Reuters had expected, on average, a rise of about 880,000 barrels in crude inventories.
  
  Gasoline stocks rose by 1.43 million barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 1.19 million barrels from a week earlier, the sources said.
  
  "Diesel inventories remain tight, while gasoline stocks rose more than expected. The data are broadly supportive of oil prices," Haitong Futures said in a note on Wednesday.
  
  Official data from the US Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) on Wednesday. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-11-04
  Global Diesel Crunch Set to Last Well Into 2027
  While crude oil imports in Asia have reached pre-war levels, imports of refined products remain weak as gasoline and diesel imports from the Middle East have crashed amid reduced refining capacity. Asia’s oil import story these days is a reflection... Read more While crude oil imports in Asia have reached pre-war levels, imports of refined products remain weak as gasoline and diesel imports from the Middle East have crashed amid reduced refining capacity.
  
  Asia’s oil import story these days is a reflection of the global oil markets—crude oil availability has significantly increased since the early summer lows and flows out of the Middle East have largely recovered, but supply of gasoline, and especially diesel, has sharply dropped since the Iran war began at the end of February.
  
  Reduced refinery runs in the Middle East, with some refineries still out following Iranian strikes in the early days of the war, have combined with lower refined product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, due to the much more dangerous ship-to-ship transfers of highly inflammable fuels, to slash supply to the market.
  
  Russia’s fuel crunch due to Ukrainian strikes on refineries and the lack of Russian diesel exports have compounded the global diesel problem, sending refining margins and retail prices to record highs in the third quarter of the year.
  
  The crunch is extending into the fourth quarter, and could last well into 2027, analysts say, as many refineries will have to undergo in the spring long overdue maintenance that has been deferred from this year to maximize production.
  
  In this context, crude and product imports in Asia, the world’s biggest oil-importing region, are telling of the state of the global oil market.
  
  A Tale of Two Markets
  
  Asia’s crude oil imports jumped to 26.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from 24.24 million bpd the month prior, per data by Kpler cited by Reuters’ Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist Clyde Russell.
  
  The import levels are estimated at nearly par with the three-month average of 27 million bpd before the Iran war, and up by 39% compared to the lowest level during the conflict so far of 19 million bpd in April, according to the data.
  Related: IEA Warns Global Gas Crunch Could Last Well into 2027
  
  Asia’s crude imports that have moved through the Strait of Hormuz soared to 7.4 million bpd in October, compared to just 1.6 million bpd in April. Flows through Hormuz en route to Asia are still lagging the pre-war levels of about 13 million bpd, but supply has jumped from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu. In recent months, Asian refiners have also materially raised crude oil imports from Russia and the Americas to offset the supply lost at the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  In contrast, Asia’s light and middle distillate imports, estimated at about 6.15 million bpd in October by Kpler, were still 10% below pre-war levels. Imports from the Middle East alone remain 18.4% below pre-war volumes, although Asia’s total fuel imports rose from September on the back of increased supply from the Americas and Africa.
  
  Diesel Crunch
  
  Gasoline and especially diesel supply remains more restricted than crude oil flows. Since the summer, diesel has been the most distressed barrel in the oil market and soaring refining margins and wholesale and retail prices globally are reflecting this constraint.
  
  Despite the recovered crude flows, refineries outside the Middle East and Russia cannot offset the lost capacity, at a time when diesel and other middle distillate demand is rising going into the northern hemisphere winter.
  
  China’s near-term export policies will be key for Asia’s regional supply in the fourth quarter, analysts say.
  
  “China remains the main Asian uncertainty. October’s clean-product export plan was around 500 kt below September’s, while November diesel and jet export volumes remain unclear,” Abhishek Kumar, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said last week.
  
  “Additional Chinese cargoes could loosen Asian balances, but the market needs greater clarity on approvals and actual loadings.”
  
  For global supply, the crunch is likely to extend until the middle of 2027, investment banks and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have warned.
  
  Global seaborne gasoil and diesel exports have contracted sharply since the Middle East crisis began, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report for October.
  
  Reduced refinery output lowered exports to an average 4.7 million barrels per day over the first nine months of 2026, which was 10% below the same period last year, or a drop of 700,000 bpd, the agency noted.
  
  Even if refinery output rose early next year, the diesel and gasoil market balance “will remain tight well into 2027 and is dependent on a recovery of product supply from the Middle East,” the IEA said.
  
  “Failing this, further demand reductions and the heavy economic costs these will entail may be needed to balance markets.”
  
  Global fuel markets are set to remain tight until at least the middle of next year as the second quarter of 2027 will see unusually high planned maintenance that refiners have deferred from this year, Morgan Stanley said last month.
  
  The expected drop in refinery utilization in the second quarter of next year would be two and a half times the usual capacity taken offline by spring maintenance globally, and is more than the capacity in the Middle East and Russia that’s currently offline, according to Morgan Stanley’s analysts. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-11-04
  MABUX: Global bunker market to maintain downward trend on Nov. 04.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – continued its downward trajectory on Nov. 03, with declines recorded across all three major fuel segments: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 756.97 (-18.74) VLSFO:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO – continued its downward trajectory on Nov. 03, with declines recorded across all three major fuel segments:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 756.97 (-18.74)
  VLSFO: USD/MT: 895.11 (-17.18)
  MGO: USD/MT: 1 495.51 (-20.29)
  
  As of Nov. 03, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which tracks the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), registered the following trends across the four major global bunkering hubs—Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: Fujairah shifted into the overcharge zone, joining Singapore. MDI premiums increased by $83 in Singapore and $65 in Fujairah. Rotterdam and Houston remained underpriced, with the MDI discount narrowing by $55 in Rotterdam but widening by $7 in Houston. Singapore's MDI premium and Houston's MDI discount both exceeded the $100 mark.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Singapore and Fujairah moved into the overcharge zone, with MDI premiums rising by $85 and $107, respectively. Rotterdam and Houston remained underpriced, although MDI discounts narrowed by $69 and $28, respectively. Rotterdam's MDI discount fell below the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Fujairah returned to the overcharge zone, becoming the only overpriced port in this fuel segment. Its MDI premium increased by $44. The remaining three hubs continued to be underpriced, with MDI discounts narrowing by $44 in Rotterdam, $59 in Singapore, and $28 in Houston. Discounts in Rotterdam and Singapore remained above the $100 mark.
  .
  
  MABUX expects the global bunker market to maintain its downward trend on Nov. 04, with further price declines projected across all major fuel segments:
  380 HSFO: minus 5-10 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 4-12 USD/MT, MGO LS: minus 3–15 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-11-04
  Leading industry experts to explore market rebalancing and energy transition at TMS Tanker Conference
  The Maritime Standard Tanker Conference 2026, which will bring together senior executives, maritime specialists and industry experts from across the global shipping, energy, logistics and marine services sectors on 11 November at Atlantis, The Palm, Dubai,... Read more The Maritime Standard Tanker Conference 2026, which will bring together senior executives, maritime specialists and industry experts from across the global shipping, energy, logistics and marine services sectors on 11 November at Atlantis, The Palm, Dubai, is being held at a pivotal time for the sector. Held under the theme “Navigating the Next Wave: Market Rebalancing, Energy Transition, and Operational Resilience in Tanker Shipping,” the conference will examine how the industry is responding to shifting trade flows, geopolitical uncertainty, changing energy markets and growing demands for operational efficiency and sustainability.
  The conference will feature an extensive line-up of speakers representing major shipping companies, port operators, classification societies, maritime service providers and specialist advisory firms. Their collective experience will contribute to discussions on the commercial and operational priorities shaping tanker shipping, from fleet deployment and investment decisions to digitalisation, decarbonisation and risk management.
  The programme will open with a welcome address by Clive Woodbridge, Editor of The Maritime Standard, followed by an inaugural address from H.E. Eng. Hessa Ahmed Al Malek, Advisor to the Minister for Maritime Transport Affairs at the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure. Shaikh Khaled Ahmad Al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Oil Tanker Company (KOTC), will deliver the keynote address.
  Session 1, “Market Rebalancing and Strategic Positioning in a Changing Landscape,” will examine the impact of evolving trade patterns, geopolitical developments, regulatory frameworks and changing energy demand on tanker markets. Discussions will focus on fleet deployment, commercial strategy, market outlooks across crude, product, chemical and gas tankers, and investment priorities amid uncertainty.
  The session will feature Dr. Ibrahim Al Nadhairi, CEO of Asyad Shipping; Ahmed Al Dhaheri, Senior Vice President, Commercial (Shipping), at ADNOC Logistics & Services; Dr. Ahmed Al-Abri, CEO of ASRY; Catrine Vestereng, SVP and Business Director for Tankers at DNV; Friedrich Portner, Chief Commercial Officer of the Maritime and Shipping Cluster at AD Ports Group; Theo Kourmpelis, Global Business Director for Tankers at Lloyd’s Register; Rovine Chandrasekera, Partner at STEWARTS; Tony Dagher, Managing Director of TMC Shipping; James Kennedy, Regional Sales Manager GCC at Advanced Polymer Coatings; Navin Kumar, Director of Maritime Research, Bulk Shipping, at Drewry; and Dereck Wate, CEO of Gulf Energy Maritime. Clive Woodbridge will moderate the session.
  Session 2, “Operational Resilience and Innovation in the Energy Transition Era,” will explore how tanker operators can strengthen safety, efficiency and business continuity while adapting to technological advances, environmental requirements and emerging risks. Key areas of discussion will include digitalisation, vessel performance, alternative fuels, cybersecurity, insurance and compliance, and the protection of critical maritime infrastructure and energy supply chains.
  Confirmed speakers include Capt. Anwar Buftain, Manager of the Fleet Personnel Group at Kuwait Oil Tanker Company; Ali Shehab, Global Director of Special Projects and Services, Maritime, at DNV; Alessandra Burke, CEO of K2 Bunker Fuel Supply; Ali Al Shibani, Chairman of O Bunkering; June Manoharan, Managing Director of LENOL FZCO; Katherine Yakunchenkova, General Manager of Al Safina Security Services; Roger Harfouch, Sales Director at Marlink Communications; Capt. Vikas Pandey, Founder and CEO of ShipFinex; Capt. Amarjit Kauchhur, Vice President, Middle East, and Regional Director at International Registries (U.K.) Limited, Dubai Branch; Nivesh Chaudhary, Co-Founder and Managing Director of ASCELA Management Consultancies; Capt. Gagan Dhillon, CEO (Dubai) of West of England P&I Club; Mehtab Kassam, Managing Associate at Stephenson Harwood LLP; and Ravi P. Jawani, Partner at Fichte & Co Legal Consultancy. Navin Kumar will moderate the session.
  The programme is designed to encourage practical discussion on the strategic decisions facing tanker owners, operators and service providers as the industry adapts to changing market conditions. By bringing together expertise from across shipping, finance, technology, legal services, classification, ports and marine operations, the conference will provide a forum to exchange perspectives on strengthening commercial performance, managing risk and building long-term resilience.
  The Maritime Standard Tanker Conference 2026 will take place on Wednesday, 11 November 2026, at Atlantis, The Palm, Dubai. Spaces are still available but are limited, so prompt booking is advised.
  For further information about the conference programme and registration, visit www.tmstankerconference.com.
  
  PRESS CONTACT:
  Ammaar Murtaza Moosa
  Mobile: +971 55 245 4466
  Email:ammaar@flagshipme.com
  
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  Office 108, Oasis Centre, Sheikh Zayed Road
  PO Box 25980, Dubai, UAE
  Tel: + 971 4 380 5556 | Fax: +971 4 380 5509
  www.flagshipme.com Source: THE MARITIME STANDARD
- 2026-11-04
  US Crude Oil Inventories Still in Freefall
  The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 5.267 million barrels in the week ending October 30. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by a staggering 2.031 million barrels. Commercial... Read more The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 5.267 million barrels in the week ending October 30. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by a staggering 2.031 million barrels.
  
  Commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have lost more than 64 million barrels over the last 29 weeks, and 12 million over this year, according to API data, which has been kept in check in part thanks to draws from the SPR.
  
  For the week ending October 30, 400,000 barrels of crude oil left the SPR to aid commercial inventories, bringing the total inventory held in the SPR down to 282.2 million barrels—a level that is 432 million barrels shy of maximum capacity.
  
  The generally accepted operational minimum for oil in the SPR is between 250-300 million barrels, below which the reserve may find it difficult to pump and process oil efficiently.
  
  US production for the week ending Oct 23 rose to 13.992 million bpd, up from 13.269 million bpd in the week prior, and up 348,000 bpd from a year ago.
  
  At 4:25 pm ET on Wednesday, Brent crude was trading down on the day at $104.32 (-0.43%). Brent is trading down roughly $10 per barrel from this time last week.
  
  WTI was also trading slightly up on the day, by $0.22 per barrel (+0.23%) at $97.24, which is down roughly $3 per barrel since this time last week.
  
  Gasoline inventories rose by 1.427 million during the week ending October 30. In the week prior, gasoline inventories rose by 2.39 million barrels. In the week prior, gasoline inventories were 2% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data.
  
  Distillate inventories fell by 270,000 barrels compared to the 380,000 barrels gained in the week prior. Distillate inventories were already 10% below the five-year average heading into this reporting period, the latest EIA data shows.
  
  Cushing inventory—the inventory kept at the delivery hub for the WTI Crude futures contract—gained 511,000 barrels after losing 453,000 barrels in the previous week. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-11-04
  Iran War Triples Logistics Costs for Oil Services Firms
  Oilfield services companies are paying as much as three times their usual logistics costs in the Middle East, with fuel expenses doubling and labor costs climbing by as much as 40%, as the Iran war continues to disrupt equipment deliveries and project... Read more Oilfield services companies are paying as much as three times their usual logistics costs in the Middle East, with fuel expenses doubling and labor costs climbing by as much as 40%, as the Iran war continues to disrupt equipment deliveries and project operations.
  
  Executives speaking Tuesday at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi described mounting financial pressure from the nine-month conflict, which has damaged infrastructure, forced employee evacuations, and made moving equipment through the Strait of Hormuz increasingly difficult.
  
  Alessandro Bernini, CEO of Italian engineering company Maire, said logistics costs on some Middle Eastern contracts have tripled, while labor expenses have risen between 30% and 40%.
  
  Those increases are cutting into contractors' margins and raising the cost of completing energy projects. Bernini warned that the additional expenses would eventually contribute to higher energy prices and inflation.
  
  For Saipem, another Italian energy contractor, the problem is getting equipment to its destination in the first place.
  
  "We have been sitting outside Hormuz for months," CEO Alessandro Puliti told the conference.
  
  National Energy Services Reunited (NESR), which operates across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Iraq, has been storing materials in warehouses for longer periods to protect against supply interruptions. Those precautions come with additional costs that contractors often cannot recover.
  
  "You eat it most of the time," NESR CEO Sherif Foda said.
  
  Recent earnings reports show how uneven the industry's recovery has been.
  
  SLB reported a 9% sequential increase in third-quarter Middle East and Asia revenue to $2.81 billion, although the figure remained 6% below year-earlier levels. The company said Middle Eastern activity recovered during the quarter before renewed disruptions emerged in September.
  
  Baker Hughes reported $1.26 billion in Middle East and Asia oilfield services revenue, down 13% from a year earlier, partly reflecting a business divestiture.
  
  Higher oil prices have encouraged additional drilling activity in some markets, creating more work for service providers. But the equipment, personnel, and transportation needed to perform that work have become considerably more expensive.
  
  For contractors already committed to Middle Eastern projects, the immediate question is how much of those additional costs they can pass along to customers. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-11-04
  Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says
  The United States and Iran could reach some form of a limited agreement by the middle of 2027, which would allow oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz to continue to gradually recover, but fundamental differences will remain, and the Middle East situation... Read more The United States and Iran could reach some form of a limited agreement by the middle of 2027, which would allow oil flows from the Strait of Hormuz to continue to gradually recover, but fundamental differences will remain, and the Middle East situation will remain far from normal next year, according to Rystad Energy.
  
  “Achieving a comprehensive settlement would require addressing issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, Tehran-backed armed groups in the region, and the security of maritime shipping, while also taking into account Israel’s security interests,” Rystad Energy said in a report cited by Azeri news agency Trend.
  
  “We consider it unlikely that all these points of contention can be resolved within the coming year,” the analysts led by Rystad’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge León, wrote in the report.
  
  Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to recover gradually, but are unlikely to reach pre-war levels in a normalized trade flow, according to the energy intelligence firm.
  
  Rystad Energy has estimated that crude oil exports from Persian Gulf producers averaged nearly 12 million barrels per day (bpd) in September and the first 20 days of October.
  
  “While this is well above the lows recorded earlier in the conflict, it remains substantially below the pre-war level of approximately 18 million barrels per day,” the report reads.
  
  While flows have recovered substantially from the lows in the spring, the security situation in and near the Strait of Hormuz has actually deteriorated, with a higher number of attacks on tankers in recent weeks, according to Rystad Energy.
  
  In the near term, the risk of renewed military escalation following the U.S. midterm elections could be another setback to the recovering Hormuz oil flows.
  
  Early on Tuesday, as voting in the midterms began on the U.S. East Coast, oil prices rebounded from Monday’s 7% loss following a Wall Street Journal report about a U.S. strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-11-04
  IEA Warns Global Gas Crunch Could Last Well into 2027
  The global gas market could remain tight well into next year as Europe enters the heating season with the lowest levels of gas in storage in over a decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report on Tuesday. Despite the strengthened... Read more The global gas market could remain tight well into next year as Europe enters the heating season with the lowest levels of gas in storage in over a decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a new report on Tuesday.
  
  Despite the strengthened interconnectivity of the various regional gas markets in recent years, thanks to expanded spot trading and a higher number of destination-flexible LNG cargoes, the Strait of Hormuz crisis has seriously affected gas markets in Europe and Asia, according to the IEA’s Global Gas Security Review 2026.
  
  The lack of meaningful recovery of LNG flows at the Strait of Hormuz and the approaching winter have combined to intensify the competition of spot supply between Asia and Europe, hiking both regional benchmark LNG and gas prices to the highest levels since the 2022-2023 supply crisis.
  
  “The current Middle East crisis has dealt a major shock to global gas and LNG markets,” the IEA said in its report.
  
  LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) tumbled by more than 60 billion cubic meters (bcm) between March and October. The steep decline was only partly offset by higher LNG output and exports from new projects in North America and Africa, as well as by the increased availability of feedgas supply from legacy producers in Africa, Asia, and Russia.
  
  Non-Persian Gulf LNG production grew by 14%, or by over 40 bcm y-o-y, between March and October, offsetting two-thirds of the decline in Gulf LNG deliveries. However, global LNG production fell by 6%, or by around 20 bcm y-o-y, over the period.
  
  Global LNG supply is expected to fall by 3% in 2026, the steepest yearly decline on record, the IEA said, assuming that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will remain largely disrupted at least until the end of 2026.
  
  Qatar last week hinted at disruption at least until the end of the year, as state-owned QatarEnergy extended the force majeure on LNG deliveries to most customers to the end of December 2026.
  
  Europe’s low storage levels could also “substantially increase the need for injections to replenish inventories through summer 2027, which could extend global market tightness well into the coming year,” the IEA noted. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-11-04
  Brent Flash Crashes $6 Before Rebounding Towards $104
  Brent crude plunged more than $6 per barrel Tuesday morning, falling from $107.24 to $100.80 before recovering to around $104 shortly after 10 a.m. Eastern, as traders reacted to a succession of conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. The... Read more Brent crude plunged more than $6 per barrel Tuesday morning, falling from $107.24 to $100.80 before recovering to around $104 shortly after 10 a.m. Eastern, as traders reacted to a succession of conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.
  
  The selloff followed Monday's 7.6% decline, which left Brent at $104.77. Prices initially rebounded overnight after reports of U.S. strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, near the Strait of Hormuz, before reversing sharply Tuesday morning.
  
  The first abrupt decline began moments before a Bloomberg-attributed breaking headline announcing that Iran's supreme leader had authorized negotiations on previously non-negotiable issues.
  
  But that was a stronger claim than Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's statement that the supreme leader had only granted the government additional negotiating authority. Pezeshkian had not specified which issues might be discussed.
  
  Questions subsequently emerged about whether the Bloomberg headline accurately reflected the Iranian statement.
  
  Brent suffered another steep drop around 8:20 a.m, right around the time of an Al Jazeera report that Washington had approved a draft agreement presented through Qatari mediators.
  
  Additional reports surfaced that Washington and Tehran had made concessions involving Iran's nuclear program and frozen assets, citing Al Araby Al Jadeed. The Al Araby report described a proposed exchange of Iranian nuclear concessions for the release of frozen funds.
  
  But a senior Iranian official has rejected the claim that there was a breakthrough over concessions, and clarified that an agreement was indeed still far off. Tehran’s public position has been and still is that its conditions must be met before Hormuz can reopen, and nuclear negotiations can begin only after those are met.
  
  In other words, nothing substantial has officially changed.
  
  Qatar confirmed that both sides were reviewing proposals, and no agreement has been announced.
  
  The competing reports help explain the uncertainty surrounding Tuesday's trading, although they do not establish what caused either sharp decline. Momentum trading and automated orders may have amplified the moves.
  
  By midmorning, Brent had recovered nearly $3 from its session low. The reported diplomatic breakthroughs remain unverified, and the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-11-04
  Dubai Benchmark Slips Into Contango for the First Time Since July
  The curve of the Dubai benchmark is showing signs that rising oil flows from the Middle East are exceeding demand for the first time since early July, when the three-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire allowed millions of barrels to leave unhindered the Strait of... Read more The curve of the Dubai benchmark is showing signs that rising oil flows from the Middle East are exceeding demand for the first time since early July, when the three-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire allowed millions of barrels to leave unhindered the Strait of Hormuz.
  
  Physical flows have been gradually rising for the past two months as Gulf producers accelerated shuttle-shipping through Hormuz with ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in the Gulf of Oman, once tankers have cleared the chokepoint.
  
  As a result, the November contract of the Dubai benchmark traded at the start of this week at a discount of about $2 per barrel to the December contract, traders and brokers told Bloomberg on Tuesday.
  
  This price curve, known as contango, is the first sign since July that current supply is abundant in the Middle East.
  
  The contango structure, in which prices for contracts dated further out in time are higher than the prompt contracts, suggests that concerns about the immediate lack of crude supply have eased significantly.
  
  Rising supply from the Middle East has weakened both the Dubai and Murban prices in recent weeks, prompting increased buying from Asian refiners, especially those in India who have preferred additional Middle Eastern cargoes to the more expensive Russian barrels with higher freight costs.
  
  At the end of last month, the prices of physical Middle East crude slumped as flows from the region recover and reach pre-war levels in some days and weeks.
  
  In contrast with the international benchmark futures prices, the prices of physical crudes from the Middle East have softened, as oil continues to flow out of the Persian Gulf at volumes close to pre-war levels, excluding Iran.
  
  Two weeks ago, robust crude oil flows out of the Middle East started to pressure the key metric of strength for physical supply out of the region. The premium of Oman crude over Dubai, the measure of the Middle East’s market strength, slumped to the lowest level since the end of July. Source: Oilprice.com

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