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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
1 058.00
0.00
1 150.00
-35.00
May 25
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	1 058.00	0.00	1 150.00	-35.00	May 25

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
748.57	-7.83	891.70	-9.32	1 334.11	-19.85	May 25

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	665	722	-57	737	803	-66	1 150	1 278	-128	May 25
Singapore	648	751	-103	788	893	-105	1 151	1 271	-120	May 25
Fujairah	675	696	-21	890	861	+29	1 495	1 334	+161	May 25
Houston	650	715	-65	835	834	+1	1 175	1 238	-63	May 25

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Latest News
- 2026-05-25
  Oil slips to two-week low as US and Iran seen moving closer to deal
  Oil prices fell about 5% to two-week lows on Monday as optimism grew that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even though Washington and Tehran played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough. Brent... Read more Oil prices fell about 5% to two-week lows on Monday as optimism grew that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even though Washington and Tehran played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough.
  Brent crude futures were down $4.97, or 4.8%, at $98.57 a barrel at 11:19 a.m. ET (1519 GMT) and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down $4.85, or 5%, at $91.75. Both contracts traded at their lowest since May 7.
  Iran’s top negotiator and its foreign minister were in Doha for talks with Qatar’s prime minister on a potential deal with the U.S. to end the three-month-old war, an official briefed on the visit said Monday.
  Both sides said they have made progress on a memorandum of understanding that would halt the war and give negotiators 60 days to reach a final deal.
  ’GET SOME OIL MOVING’
  "Even though it’s not done, there seems to be some hope that we will start to get some oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group.
  In a lengthy Truth Social post on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were going "nicely," but warned of fresh attacks if they failed.
  He urged more Arab and Muslim states to sign up to the Abraham Accords, which were brokered during Trump’s first term in office and aim to normalise ties between Arab and other Muslim-majority states and Israel.
  
  "That could mean a significant reduction of risk premium in the Middle East, especially if a deal with Iran can be done and Iran gives up their nuclear material," Flynn said.
  Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday Iran was negotiating an end to the war and was not currently discussing nuclear issues.
  Even if a peace deal is reached, analysts expect a return to normal oil flows through the strait will take months, while damaged oil and gas facilities are repaired.
  "The underlying supply shortfall of 10-11 (million barrels per day) of crude oil does not go away immediately and will see markets still drawing inventories until Middle Eastern crude production is back online, which is months away," said Sparta Commodities analyst June Goh.
  "We continue to believe that the key factors for the oil market to watch should be the physical oil flows; and so far, flows through the strait remain restricted," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
  Ship-tracking data showed three liquefied natural gas tankers passed through the strait in recent days, heading to Pakistan, China and India, as well as a supertanker with Iraqi crude for China after being stranded for nearly three months. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2026-05-25
  New project to examine potential of EVs powering electric ferry in Germany
  Osnabrück University of Applied Sciences and the Norden-Frisia shipping company are launching a joint project that will investigate the potential for electric vehicles to help power the latter’s battery-powered passenger ferry, Frisia EI. As previously... Read more
- 2026-05-25
  Eni building up global LNG portfolio with Indonesian supply deals
  Italy’s Eni, which is currently looking to expand its LNG bunkering capabilities, announced yesterday (21 May) that it is ramping up its global LNG portfolio with three long-term agreements with the LNG sellers of the South Hub and North Hub gas projects... Read more
- 2026-05-25
  Estonian State Fleet contracts CRIST to build Estonia’s first fully-electric passenger ferry
  Polish yard CRIST SA has won a €49.93 million contract to build an electric passenger ferry for the Estonian State Fleet which will be powered by a 4 MWh shore-charged battery system when it enters operation in 2028 The contract value includes €28... Read more
- 2026-05-25
  MABUX: Downward movements to prevail in Global bunker market on May 25.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward movement on May 22 for the third consecutive session: 380 HSFO: USD/MT: 756.40 (-24.80) VLSFO: USD/MT 901.02 (-33.56) MGO:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite benchmark reflecting daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its downward movement on May 22 for the third consecutive session:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT: 756.40 (-24.80)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 901.02 (-33.56)
  MGO: USD/MT 1 353.96 (-41.13)
  
  As of May 22, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which monitors the spread between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — registered the following trends across the four major global bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four hubs were undercharged. The discount narrowed by $7 in Rotterdam and by $16 in Singapore, while widening by $7 in Fujairah and narrowing by $15 in Houston. Fujairah’s MDI remained close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Houston moved into the overcharge zone alongside Fujairah, with premiums widening by $22 and $14 respectively. Rotterdam and Singapore remained underpriced: the discount narrowed by $18 in Rotterdam but widened by $16 in Singapore. Houston’s MDI stayed near the 100% correlation mark.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston continued to post underpriced conditions. Discounts widened by $7 in Rotterdam and by $38 in Singapore, while narrowing by $18 in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overpriced port, although its premium eased by $17. MDI values in Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah remained above the $100 threshold.
  
  MABUX expects downward movements to dominate the global bunker market on May 25: minus 5-10 USD/MT, VLSFO: minus 5–10 USD/MT, MGO LS: plus-minus 8–20 USD/MT. The next direction will largely depend on whether Hormuz transit flows continue to improve and whether US-Iran negotiations can progress beyond optimistic headlines toward a practical shipping agreement.
  Source: MABUX
- 2026-05-25
  Oil slips 6% as US, Iran seen moving closer to peace deal
  Oil prices fell 6% to two-week lows on Monday, as optimism grew that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal, even though they remain at odds over key issues, such as blockades on the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell $5.85,... Read more Oil prices fell 6% to two-week lows on Monday, as optimism grew that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal, even though they remain at odds over key issues, such as blockades on the Strait of Hormuz.
  Brent crude futures fell $5.85, or 5.7%, to $97.69 a barrel by 0343 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate were at $90.85 a barrel, down $5.75, or 6%. Both contracts touched their lowest since May 7 earlier in the session.
  On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington and Iran had "largely negotiated" an understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which had carried a fifth of global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict.
  "Notwithstanding all the caveats and risks that remain to the peace deal and Strait of Hormuz, there is now some light at the end of the tunnel, which will bring some near-term oil price relief," said MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic.
  However, the two sides remain at odds on several difficult issues, with Trump saying on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran.
  "We’ve been at this stage before, only for talks to break down. Therefore, the market will likely be more cautious about overreacting," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING.
  Analysts expect a return to normal oil flows through the strait will take months, while damaged oil and gas facilities are repaired.
  
  "The longer the crisis stretches, the more debatable it becomes whether world leaders genuinely want a quick end to disruptions," said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.
  U.S. energy firms responded to higher local energy prices by adding oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth week in a row, for the first time since February 2025.
  The rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by seven to 558 in the week to May 22, its highest since June 2025. Even so, Baker Hughes said the total count was still down eight rigs, or 1% below this time last year.
  "Momentum indicators suggest markets are attempting to stabilise after last week’s aggressive selloff, but conviction remains weak," Sachdeva said. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-25
  European Gas Storage Can’t Survive 3 More Months of Hormuz
  Europe could face a critical shortfall in natural gas stocks if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist for another 1-3 months, senior executives at Norwegian energy giant, Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR), have warned. Europe entered the current... Read more Europe could face a critical shortfall in natural gas stocks if shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist for another 1-3 months, senior executives at Norwegian energy giant, Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR), have warned. Europe entered the current summer refill season with severely depleted gas reserves, with gas stores only 28% full following a prolonged winter. Europe’s storage levels are currently at 35-37%, significantly below the 50% seasonal norm, increasing the risk that the continent will miss its usual 90% target at the beginning of the next winter heating season. The European Union requires member states to maintain robust storage fill levels, typically targeting an 80% to 90% capacity by early winter. A combination of factors has made filling Europe's largest storage hubs a daunting task heading into the latter half of the year. First off, heavy withdrawals during winter, driven by peak household heating, coupled with a spike in industrial power demand, depressed natural gas storage levels in Northwest Europe to below 30%, roughly double the EU's overall storage deficit. Gas levels in the Netherlands, Germany, and France fell to critically low levels before spring even began: Dutch reserves plunged to just 5.8% by the end of winter, marking the lowest level in a decade; storage levels in Germany dipped to ~20% while those in France hovered around 27% by the time spring kicked in.
  
  Second, distorted pricing and inverted seasonal price curves have contributed to Europe’s gas crisis, with an unusual market structure wherein summer spot prices are higher than winter contracts stalling necessary storage replenishment. Dutch TTF seasonal spreads have remained in negative territory to the tune of ~€ 1.3/MWh, with the unusual backwardation disrupting the traditional dynamics of injecting gas during the cheaper summer months and withdrawing it during the colder, high-demand winter season. Europe has also been facing an LNG squeeze, with competing global energy demands and disruptions to major LNG facilities due to the Middle East conflict making replenishing stocks highly costly. Delays and infrastructure damage at key facilities particularly in Qatar combined with a phase-out of Russian LNG have intensified global competition for spot cargoes, particularly against high demand in Asia. The inverted curve has also been partially driven by expectations of an influx of new global LNG capacity later in the year, coupled with near-term supply concerns.
  
  EU member countries have responded to the distorted pricing mechanism using various approaches. In Italy, regulators such as ARERA and transmission system operators like Snam have introduced financial compensation schemes that allow traders to bid in auctions where the market manager pays the difference between the summer and winter gas prices at the Virtual Trading Point (PSV) to ensure storage targets are met. The situation is different in Germany, with Europe’s largest economy having historically avoided direct state subsidies to force injections, instead relying on legal mandates and market-balancing tools. Germany's Bundesnetzagentur enforces strict statutory filling targets for natural gas storage to guarantee winter supply security. Shippers and network users are legally obligated to meet specific inventory levels, and compliance is driven by market mechanisms, capacity auctions, and strategic instruments managed by Trading Hub Europe GmbH (THE). To cover costs associated with purchasing, injecting, and managing strategic gas reserves, THE utilizes a regulatory storage neutrality charge. This levy, historically applied to exit flows and network points, helps recover the costs of state-mandated storage measures.
  
  Despite the difference in domestic incentives, both nations are subject to EU-wide regulations, requiring minimum storage levels historically targeting 80-90% of maximum capacity ahead of the winter heating season. While Italy has leaned into financial support, Germany relies on regulatory mandates, with the goal of passing storage-filling obligations onto active wholesale market participants.
  
  Equinor has warned that whereas a quick resolution could allow for Europe to attain a manageable 75% storage level by the end of the injection season, a 1–3 month blockage would make the situation highly critical, potentially driving TTF prices toward €90/MWh. A spike in gas prices is expected to drive market corrections, including a projected 10 billion cubic meter reduction in gas-to-power demand and increased industrial fuel switching.
  
  That said, Europe’s current gas crisis is nowhere near as dire as the situation it faced when Russia invaded Ukraine a couple of years ago. Indeed, Germany is going ahead with the privatization process for Uniper following the company's multi-billion-euro rescue during the 2022 energy crisis. Under the European Commission state aid rules that approved Berlin's 2022 bailout, Germany is legally required to reduce its shareholding to a maximum of 25% plus one share by the end of 2028. Uniper's finances have improved dramatically following a massive €40 billion net loss in 2022 triggered by the cutoff of Russian Gazprom gas. The utility won major arbitration damages, and has already begun repaying government aid. This financial health makes it highly attractive to private markets. Headquartered in Düsseldorf, Uniper is one of Germany’s largest gas importers and a key player in Europe's gas trading and storage networks. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-25
  Coal Is Fueling China’s Next Energy Power Play
  Coal is inarguably one of the big winners from the energy flow disruption in the Middle East. Consumption is up strongly as gas becomes hard to come by and expensive to buy. Power supply security has overtaken any emission concerns. Yet it is not only... Read more Coal is inarguably one of the big winners from the energy flow disruption in the Middle East. Consumption is up strongly as gas becomes hard to come by and expensive to buy. Power supply security has overtaken any emission concerns. Yet it is not only in power generation that coal has regained popularity. Coal is also increasingly being used as feedstock for chemicals, notably fertilizers.
  
  Recently released data from China showed that coal production in the world’s top consumer had dipped in the first four months of the year. Imports were also down, and power generation from coal declined, extending a trend that began in 2025. The figures would suggest China is reducing its use of coal, but in fact, coal consumption is still going strong in the Asian powerhouse—the commodity is simply being used for more than power generation and metals smelting. China is using coal to make everything from gas to petrochemicals—and now India is planning to do the same.
  
  Earlier this week, Reuters reported that PetroChina was developing a project for the extraction of gas from coal rock, eyeing output of 30 billion cu m by 2035. The extraction technology is very similar to that used in shale formations, the report noted, adding that China is the only country where hydraulic fracturing is being used for so-called rock gas extraction.
  
  In separate news, China’s coal-to-chemicals industry got a major boost from the Middle East war. The sector’s stocks jumped by 30% between the end of February and mid-March, Reuters reported at the time, with investors rewarding the energy industry’s ability to use coal for the production of fertilizers and other petrochemicals without actually using petroleum.
  
  With oil prices surging on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, coal has become a valuable substitute, not least because even with a price rise—and coal prices have risen—it remains cheaper than the liquid alternative. Indeed, Reuters reported in mid-March that Chinese coal prices had in fact fallen since the start of the war. It is little wonder that India wants to replicate China’s success in coal-to-chemicals.
  
  Dependent on imports for over 80% of its oil consumption, India has found itself in a rather vulnerable position amid the biggest energy crisis in history. Yet India has abundant coal reserves it can use for more than power generation—and that is exactly what it is doing, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas reported this week.
  
  Many net-zero campaigners from political circles like to point out that homegrown energy is a guarantee for energy security. In that, they are correct, even though when they say homegrown energy, they mean energy harvested with equipment imported from, among others, China. And China uses coal to make that equipment. The fact remains, however, that using your own resources to produce energy, fertilizers, and other chemicals is certainly a better choice than importing in and depending on a market over which you have no control with regard to either prices or supply.
  
  China’s coal-to-chemicals industry is a unique one, Bloomberg’s Blas noted in his report, and that means it would be challenging for India to replicate China’s success. One reason for this is that Indian coal is different, the energy columnist reported, and will be harder to convert into chemicals.
  
  The other reason is that China has spent some 20 years improving the extraction technology. India plans to invest $4 billion to jumpstart a coal-to-chemicals industry, but that may not be enough, Blas says, as companies engaged in that activity would need more support to make their products competitive once the war in the Middle East ends and natural gas prices retreat to pre-war levels—whenever that may happen.
  
  Still, the Modi government eyes 75 million tons of coal getting turned into fertilizers and other chemicals, as well as plastics, in 2030, to enhance reliance on locally sourced goods and reduce its passive import bill. It will provide funding for processing facilities and guarantee the local supply of the feedstock—and boost the world’s demand for coal even further than the war already has, further eroding net-zero plans.
  
  Bloomberg’s Blas reported that China’s coal-to-chemicals industry consumes 380 million tons of coal annually. If it were a country, he noted, that industry would be the world’s third-largest coal consumer. And now India wants to build its own gargantuan coal-consuming industry.
  
  Last year, China produced 4.2 billion cubic meters of rock gas. This is just the beginning if production growth plans materialize. The coal-to-chemicals industry is growing and, evidently, inspiring other countries to go local as well, with no concern for the implications of such trends for emission reduction. The coal-to-chemicals industry developments in Asia show quite clearly that the top priorities in energy will always remain reliability and affordability, with emissions a distant third in times of tight supply and high prices. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-25
  Norway Doubles Down on Oil and Gas as Europe Scrambles for Supply
  Norway, well known for its oil and gas production, has ramped up its fossil fuel output in recent weeks to fill the gap following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing energy trade disruptions. While some countries are grateful to Norway... Read more Norway, well known for its oil and gas production, has ramped up its fossil fuel output in recent weeks to fill the gap following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the ongoing energy trade disruptions. While some countries are grateful to Norway for helping alleviate oil and gas shortages, environmentalists have critiqued the move, suggesting that more of a focus must be placed on increasing the region’s renewable energy capacity.
  
  Norway appears to have taken on the role of “Europe’s saviour” as it stepped in to replace Middle Eastern oil and gas imports following the closure of a key trade corridor connecting Asia and Europe. The Prime Minister of Norway’s Labour-run government, Jonas Gahr Støre, explained, “It’s [Iran] a war that appears to have no plan… In such unpredictable times, Norway needs to be reliable.”
  
  Norway previously increased its fossil fuel output following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as several European governments stopped purchasing oil and gas from Russia and, instead, looked to Norway to fill the gap. Norway has since become Europe’s largest pipeline gas supplier following the imposition of strict sanctions on Russian energy. Now, an estimated 90 to 95 percent of Norway’s oil goes to Europe, while the EU attains around one-third of its gas imports from Oslo.
  
  However, Norway is close to reaching its maximum output, meaning that it cannot increase production from existing projects much further. Norway’s oil output is expected to decrease after 2030 unless it develops new projects. Therefore, if it hopes to boost output, Norway must invest in new exploration activities, a move that environmentalists are staunchly against.
  
  Norway’s Energy Minister Terje Aasland stated in March, “Our focus is to be a stable, long and predictable supplier of energy to the European market.” The stance appears to be the same across most of the political spectrum, with most politicians seeing Norway’s oil and gas production as key to ensuring Europe’s energy security, particularly during a time of geopolitical turmoil, which has driven up energy prices significantly.
  
  Following over two months of severe energy trade restrictions due to the ongoing Iran War, Aasland has doubled down on his comments about Norway as a major energy provider. “We will develop, not dismantle, activity on our continental shelf,” Aasland recently stated. In May, Aasland announced plans to reopen three gas fields – Albuskjell, Vest Ekofisk and Tommeliten Gamma – in the North Sea, off Norway’s southern coast, by the end of 2028, almost three decades after their closure.
  
  The government hopes that reopening the fields will help fill the gap left by ongoing sanctions on Russian energy and the Middle East trade disruption. The reopening of the fields is expected to maintain Norway’s gas and oil production at around the output recorded in 2025.
  
  “Norwegian offshore production plays an important role in ensuring energy security in Europe… The world, and Europe, will have a need for oil and gas for decades to come, and it is crucial that Norway continues to develop its continental shelf to remain a reliable and long-term supplier … and (with) a high level of exploration activity,” stated Aasland. “We have a responsibility. Our focus is very clear,” Aasland said about Norway’s role in providing energy to Europe.
  
  Meanwhile, Ola Morten Aanestad, the Press Spokesperson of Norway’s state-owned oil firm Equinor, said the company plans to invest $6 billion a year up to 2035 to help it avoid a decline in output. Aanestad highlighted plans for “more drilling … a lot of new development, more pipelines … maybe smaller fields developing, but still important.”
  
  Norway pumped 2.31 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter of the year, according to its latest financial results, nearly 9 percent more than in the same period last year. In mid-May, Norway's government revised its earnings forecast upwards for oil and gas production this year, from $60 billion to $79 billion, citing higher global energy prices.
  
  However, Norway’s Socialist Left party does not agree with the government’s commitment to maintaining oil and gas output. The deputy leader and environment spokesperson for the party, Lars Haltbrekken, said, “It shows that the government is once again blatantly ignoring environmental advice from its own experts. All the talk about responsible oil extraction is nothing but nonsense. It’s greenwashing through and through, with vulnerable and important natural areas being put at risk with full awareness.
  
  While some view Norway’s plans for maintaining or increasing oil and gas output as key to ensuring Europe’s energy security, others see the government’s ongoing support for fossil fuels in a time of global crisis as “greenwashing’. While Norway is clearly filling a gap and providing European powers with a more stable and geopolitically certain oil and gas supply, environmentalists worry that plans to maintain high output beyond 2030 could reduce the urgency to achieve a green transition.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2026-05-25
  Colombia's Natural Gas Crisis Deepens as Strait of Hormuz Closure Cuts Supply
  Strife-torn Colombia is facing a severe energy crisis at a critical juncture. Global supply of natural gas is heavily constrained due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes on Iran. This could not come at a worse time for Colombia,... Read more Strife-torn Colombia is facing a severe energy crisis at a critical juncture. Global supply of natural gas is heavily constrained due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after U.S. strikes on Iran. This could not come at a worse time for Colombia, with the Andean country experiencing a massive surge in demand for natural gas at a time when domestic production is declining. The rapidly growing supply shortfall was filled by costly liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, the future of which now appears uncertain. These events are weighing heavily on Colombia's vulnerable economy.
  
  Colombia's energy patch appears caught in a death spiral with petroleum and natural gas production declining sharply over the last decade. During March 2026, petroleum output grew by just under 1% compared to a month prior but was 1% lower year over year to an average of 740,497 barrels per day. This is significantly lower than the 917,210 barrels per day lifted a decade earlier for March 2016.
  
  Declining oil production is a key contributor to Colombia's emerging energy crisis because a considerable portion of the natural gas produced in the Andean country is associated with petroleum production. Drillers are using that associated natural gas for enhanced recovery by reinjecting it into petroleum reservoirs to boost pressure and reduce viscosity, especially for Colombia's mature heavy oil fields.
  
  Indeed, the aging nature of Colombia's oilfields, with most having reached peak production a decade or more ago, places greater pressure on drillers to employ enhanced recovery. This means more associated natural gas is being deployed for oil recovery purposes, removing it from domestic commercial supply, thereby exacerbating the supply shortfall.
  
  Colombia's March 2026 natural gas production rose by 0.7% month over month to 700 million cubic feet, but this still represented an almost 15% decline compared to the same period a year earlier. That illustrates that the Andean country's natural gas output is caught in a death spiral, especially when it is considered that it is a whopping 38% lower than a decade earlier.
  
  In comparison, at the start of 2016, Colombia was self-sufficient when it came to natural gas supply, although costly LNG imports did begin in December of that year as a supply shortfall started developing. Along with ever-worsening domestic supply constraints, growing demand for natural gas in Colombia, where it is a crucial industrial and household fuel, is creating a massive shortfall.
  
  Declining natural gas output is not the only significant issue. A marked drop in Colombia's reserves of the fossil fuel is also weighing heavily on the hydrocarbon industry's future and a deteriorating economy. By the end of 2024, the Andean country had only proved reserves of two trillion cubic feet, which is sufficient for another 5.9 years of production.
  
  That number was not only 3.3% lower than a year earlier, but it is also the lowest proved natural gas reserves in well over two decades. A lack of exploration drilling is weighing heavily on Colombia's ability to boost its hydrocarbon reserves, especially for natural gas. This is placing considerable pressure on the country's fragile economy, where gross domestic product only expanded by 2.2% for the first quarter of 2026.
  
  Consequently, there are fears of an energy crisis emerging because of the sharp decline in hydrocarbon production, which is occurring primarily because of President Gustavo Petro's policies aimed at reducing fossil fuel dependence. These, which include significant tax hikes as well as a ban on awarding new exploration and production contracts, are responsible for causing natural gas output to plummet precipitously to unsustainable historical lows.
  
  A major driver of rising natural gas consumption is the shift from coal-fired to natural gas-fired power plants. While around 65% of Colombia's electricity is generated by hydro plants, an increasing proportion is produced by thermal plants, many of which are reliant on coal as a fuel. El Niño-driven drought continues to reduce water flows and hydropower output, forcing Colombia to generate more electricity from thermal plants, placing considerable pressure on the already constrained natural gas supply.
  
  You see, Bogota is steadily phasing out coal-fired facilities, thereby boosting consumption of natural gas, particularly during times of El Niño-induced drought. Without sufficient fuel to fire Colombia's thermal plants at times of high electricity demand, an already stretched grid risks collapsing, especially with brownouts and even blackouts regular occurrences in numerous cities as well as remote areas.
  
  Natural gas is a cost-effective fuel widely used by industry in Colombia, where the manufacturing sector contributes 10% of gross domestic product (GDP). It is also the only widely available low-cost household fuel used in a country where nearly 32% of the population lives in poverty. For those reasons, the expected substantial increase in expensive natural gas imports will sharply impact the economy while causing the cost of living to spiral higher.
  
  As discussed, Colombia is no longer self-sufficient when it comes to natural gas. A rapidly expanding domestic supply shortfall is forcing the country to become more dependent on LNG imports, which are more expensive than domestically produced natural gas. This is because there are liquefaction costs at the point of manufacture, shipping expenses, and regasification costs at the port of delivery with the average price of imported natural gas climbing 26% from $14.64 to $18.39 per MBTU.
  
  Indeed, industry data shows the cost of natural gas for industrial consumers during 2025 soared by 69%, yet for households, which receive mostly domestic production, surged by 23% that year. This is not only impacting vital economic sectors and the cost of living but is also one of the major causes driving higher inflation, which for April 2026 hit 5.68% up from 5.16% a year earlier.
  
  There are fears that as the proportion of domestic natural gas supply provided by LNG imports grows, prices will rise even higher, further impacting industry and households. By the end of 2025, 18% of Colombia's natural gas supply was sourced from imports, and this was originally expected to grow to 26% during 2026, but there are signs it may expand to as much as 33% because of dwindling domestic production.
  
  Iran disrupted roughly a fifth of Qatar's LNG production, immediately causing global LNG supply to tighten, sending prices higher. That pressure is being intensified by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global natural gas shipments pass each year. This is causing LNG prices to spiral higher, which will have a sharp impact on Colombia's natural gas supply, further damaging an already weak economy laboring under considerable debt and large fiscal deficits. Source: Oilprice.com

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